Reads as: riskier than 63.6% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
17
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+33.9 vs natl
STUART JULIUS
8 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+33.9 vs natl
KING ABBY
8 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+31.0 vs natl
DORMAN JOHN
10 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+30.3 vs natl
PISANI ADAM
10 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+30.3 vs natl
KING ELIZABETH
10 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+28.3 vs natl
UTHMAN EDWARD
16 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+28.3 vs natl
CRAYTON TOM
16 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+26.6 vs natl
POPATIA AMIRALI
14 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+24.1 vs natl
HALEY JEFF
17 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+23.6 vs natl
FREUDENBERGER JOSEPH
35 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+23.0 vs natl
OAKBEND MEDICAL CENTER
32 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
50% fined
PISANI ADAM
10 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
50% fined
KING ELIZABETH
10 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
50% fined
OAKBEND MEDICAL CENTER
32 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
49% fined
FREUDENBERGER JOSEPH
35 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
47% fined
HALEY JEFF
17 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
DORMAN JOHN
10 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
TX median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.45
2.67
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.40
0.24
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.43
2.56
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.45
2.72
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
111.9
2.45
0.40
0.30
1.75
2.43
2.1%
2025Q3
92
111.2
2.48
0.33
0.34
1.81
2.35
0.0%
2025Q2
91
109.2
2.44
0.30
0.35
1.79
2.27
0.0%
2025Q1
90
109.1
2.37
0.32
0.34
1.72
2.14
3.9%
2024Q4
92
108.6
2.27
0.28
0.33
1.67
2.04
0.0%
2024Q3
92
108.7
2.38
0.24
0.41
1.72
2.17
0.0%
2024Q2
91
109.1
2.44
0.22
0.44
1.78
2.24
0.0%
2024Q1
91
99.9
2.22
0.11
0.49
1.63
2.14
0.0%
2023Q4
92
90.1
2.37
0.19
0.58
1.60
2.29
0.0%
2023Q3
92
90.7
2.41
0.07
0.65
1.68
2.38
0.0%
2023Q2
91
85.0
2.40
0.09
0.65
1.66
2.31
0.0%
2023Q1
90
79.1
2.46
0.12
0.63
1.71
2.48
0.0%
2022Q4
92
79.9
2.33
0.02
0.69
1.62
2.41
0.0%
2022Q3
92
86.4
2.25
0.09
0.72
1.43
2.19
0.0%
2022Q2
91
79.8
2.71
0.31
0.85
1.55
2.46
0.0%
2022Q1
90
81.7
2.96
0.38
0.76
1.83
2.66
1.2%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities
D
2024-11-26
2024-11-07
Health · complaint
F0655
Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted
D
2024-11-26
2024-11-07
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2024-11-26
2024-11-07
Health · complaint
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2024-11-26
2024-03-07
Health · complaint
F0558
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
D
2024-03-11
2024-03-07
Health · complaint
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2024-03-11
2024-03-07
Health · complaint
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
E
2024-03-11
2023-09-30
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
E
2023-10-01
2023-09-30
Health · complaint
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
J
2023-10-01
2023-09-30
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
J
2023-10-01
2023-09-30
Health · complaint
F0698
Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services.
D
2023-10-01
2023-09-30
Health · complaint
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2023-10-01
2023-09-30
Health · complaint
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2023-10-01
2023-09-30
Health · complaint
F0920
Provide at least one room set aside to use as a resident dining room and for activities, that is a good size, with good lighting, air flow and furniture.
D
2023-10-23
2022-07-22
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2022-08-28
2022-07-22
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2022-08-28
2022-07-22
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2022-08-28
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
41
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
CRAYTON, TOM
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
DORMAN, JOHN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
FREUDENBERGER, JOSEPH
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
GOTCHER, KAREN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-20
current
pecos_ownership
HALEY, JEFF
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
HEALTH MANAGEMENT PARTNERS LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-20
current
pecos_ownership
HERITAGE PARK OF KATY, LLC
—
—
2024-01-01
current
tx_hhsc_directory
K.D. GOTCHER, LTD.
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-20
current
pecos_ownership
KHAWAJA, MUBARAK
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-20
current
pecos_ownership
KING, ABBY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
KING, ELIZABETH
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
LACERDA, DENNIS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-03
current
pecos_ownership
LACERDA, DENNIS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-20
current
pecos_ownership
LACERDA, FELIPE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-07
current
pecos_ownership
NALL, JOSEPH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-20
current
pecos_ownership
OAKBEND MEDICAL CENTER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-20
current
pecos_ownership
OAKBEND MEDICAL CENTER
—
—
2024-01-01
current
tx_hhsc_directory
PISANI, ADAM
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
POPATIA, AMIRALI
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
STUART, JULIUS
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
UTHMAN, EDWARD
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
DANNY GOTCHER
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
50%
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
DANNY GOTCHER
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
50%
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
KAREN GOTCHER
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
50%
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
KAREN GOTCHER
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
50%
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
ABBY KING
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ADAM PISANI
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AMIRALI POPATIA
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DENNIS LACERDA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DENNIS LACERDA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
EDWARD UTHMAN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ELIZABETH KING
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
FELIPE LACERDA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JEFF HALEY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN DORMAN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOSEPH FREUDENBERGER
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOSEPH NALL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JULIUS STUART
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KAREN GOTCHER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MUBARAK KHAWAJA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TOM CRAYTON
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
4
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2023-12-31
$135,373
$135,373
—
—
—
2
—
2022-12-31
$135,373
$135,373
—
—
—
2
—
2021-12-31
$135,373
$135,373
—
—
—
2
propco
2020-12-31
$216,581
$216,581
—
—
—
2
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
22
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
zcta 77493
acs median gross
0
$1,390
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77493
acs median gross
1
$1,726
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77493
acs median gross
2
$1,514
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77493
acs median gross
3
$2,132
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77493
acs median gross
4
$2,264
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77493
acs median gross
$1,867
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77493
acs recent mover gross
$1,655
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 77493
payment standard 110
0
$1,815
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77493
payment standard 90
0
$1,485
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77493
safmr
0
$1,650
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77493
payment standard 110
1
$1,881
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77493
payment standard 90
1
$1,539
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77493
safmr
1
$1,710
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77493
payment standard 110
2
$2,233
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77493
payment standard 90
2
$1,827
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77493
safmr
2
$2,030
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77493
payment standard 110
3
$3,003
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77493
payment standard 90
3
$2,457
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77493
safmr
3
$2,730
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77493
payment standard 110
4
$3,751
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77493
payment standard 90
4
$3,069
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77493
safmr
4
$3,410
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.