Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

351–400

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
351	Wesbury United Methodist Commu	5.9%	97.7	B	PA	MEADVILLE	210	—
352	Heartland Care Center	5.9%	97.7	A	IA	Marcus	38	—
353	LITTLE SISTERS OF THE POOR SACRED HEART RESIDENCE	5.9%	97.7	A	AL	MOBILE	75	—
354	Mescalero Care Center	5.9%	97.7	D	NM	Mescalero	40	—
355	HERITAGE OAKS	5.9%	97.7	C	GA	SAINT SIMONS ISLAND	125	MAGNOLIA MANOR INC
356	Oakland Heights	5.9%	97.7	A	NE	Oakland	45	—
357	AUGUSTA HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	5.9%	97.7	A	WI	AUGUSTA	50	—
358	COPPER ROCK HEALTHCARE	5.9%	97.7	C	MO	ROGERSVILLE	90	—
359	WOOD-LAWN HEIGHTS	5.9%	97.7	A	AR	BATESVILLE	140	—
360	HEBREW HOME FOR THE AGED AT RIVERDALE	5.9%	97.7	C	NY	RIVERDALE	843	—
361	THE WHEATLANDS HEALTH CARE CENTER	5.8%	97.7	A	KS	KINGMAN	54	—
362	GOLDEN AGE MANOR	5.8%	97.7	B	WI	AMERY	85	—
363	GRACE LUTHERAN COMMUNITIES - RIVER PINES	5.8%	97.6	A	WI	ALTOONA	50	—
364	Saint Joseph of the Pines Health Center	5.8%	97.6	B	NC	Pinehurst	176	TRINITY CONTINUING CARE SERVICES
365	MEADVILLE MEDICAL CTR TCU	5.8%	97.6	C	PA	MEADVILLE	32	—
366	MIRABELLA PORTLAND	5.8%	97.6	A	OR	PORTLAND	44	—
367	HIGHMORE HEALTH	5.8%	97.6	A	SD	HIGHMORE	39	—
368	SHEPHERD OF THE VALLEY HOWLAND	5.8%	97.6	A	OH	HOWLAND	65	—
369	STONERIDGE POPLAR RUN	5.8%	97.6	A	PA	MYERSTOWN	60	—
370	OAKVIEW TERRACE	5.8%	97.6	A	SD	FREEMAN	45	—
371	Maple Ridge Rehabilitation and Nursing	5.7%	97.6	C	UT	Salt Lake City	36	—
372	SEILING NURSING CENTER	5.7%	97.6	B	OK	SEILING	31	—
373	CHAPIN HOME FOR THE AGING	5.7%	97.6	A	NY	JAMAICA	220	—
374	BIBB MEDICAL CENTER NURSING HOME	5.7%	97.6	A	AL	CENTREVILLE	131	—
375	HILLCREST CARE CENTER	5.7%	97.6	A	CO	WRAY	45	—
376	John J Kane Regional Center-Mc	5.7%	97.6	D	PA	MCKEESPORT	360	—
377	CANTERBURY TOWERS INC	5.7%	97.5	A	FL	TAMPA	60	—
378	LITTLE SISTERS OF THE POOR OF PALATINE	5.7%	97.5	A	IL	PALATINE	49	—
379	Providence Child Center	5.7%	97.5	A	OR	PORTLAND	58	—
380	MAGNOLIA MANOR METHODIST NSG C	5.7%	97.5	A	GA	AMERICUS	238	—
381	Weskota Manor Inc	5.7%	97.5	B	SD	WESSINGTON SPRINGS	40	—
382	Preakness Healthcare Center	5.6%	97.5	B	NJ	WAYNE	406	—
383	ELMS, THE	5.6%	97.5	A	IL	MACOMB	98	—
384	GUARDIAN CARE NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	5.6%	97.5	B	FL	ORLANDO	120	—
385	SEYMOUR REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE	5.6%	97.5	A	TX	SEYMOUR	90	ADVANCED HCS LLC
386	WILLIS-KNIGHTON EXTENDED CARE CENTER	5.6%	97.5	B	LA	SHREVEPORT	24	—
387	SAINT PAUL HOMES	5.6%	97.5	A	PA	GREENVILLE	192	—
388	WINDSOR HEALTHCARE & REHAB CENTER	5.6%	97.5	C	MO	WINDSOR	60	—
389	WHITE RIVER HEALTHCARE	5.6%	97.5	A	AR	CALICO ROCK	70	—
390	MOTION PICTURE AND T.V. HOSP D/P SNF	5.6%	97.5	A	CA	WOODLAND HILLS	195	—
391	FAIR HAVEN SHELBY COUNTY	5.6%	97.5	A	OH	SIDNEY	90	—
392	Lakelands Nursing And Rehabilitation Center	5.6%	97.5	A	SC	Abbeville	69	—
393	FULTON COUNTY MEDICAL CENTER	5.6%	97.5	A	PA	MCCONNELLSBURG	67	—
394	VERNON MANOR	5.5%	97.4	B	WI	VIROQUA	80	—
395	LUTHERAN HOME AT TOPTON, THE	5.5%	97.4	B	PA	TOPTON	194	DIAKON
396	LUTHERAN HOME	5.5%	97.4	B	OH	WESTLAKE	104	—
397	Fraser Health Center	5.5%	97.4	A	SC	Hilton Head Island	33	—
398	VALLEY VIEW HEALTHCARE & REHAB	5.5%	97.4	B	MN	HOUSTON	40	—
399	LA BELLE MANOR CARE CENTER	5.5%	97.4	C	MO	LA BELLE	94	—
400	Bryan Health and Rehab	5.5%	97.4	A	NC	Scotland Neck	60	—

Showing 351–400 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.