Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

1,801–1,850

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
1801	Paradigm at Stevens	1.4%	88.2	D	TX	Yoakum	0	—
1802	St Ann's Home	1.4%	88.2	B	MI	Grand Rapids	55	—
1803	JAMES T CHAMPION	1.4%	88.2	A	MS	MERIDIAN	70	—
1804	Grand Traverse Pavilions	1.4%	88.2	C	MI	Traverse City	240	—
1805	Shorehaven HLTH & Rehab CTR	1.4%	88.2	A	WI	OCONOMOWOC	88	—
1806	Providence Place	1.4%	88.2	D	MN	MINNEAPOLIS	190	SENIOR CARE COMMUNITIES
1807	Mahnomen Health Center	1.4%	88.2	D	MN	MAHNOMEN	32	—
1808	GRAHAM HOSPITAL	1.4%	88.2	A	IL	CANTON	35	—
1809	LUTHERAN HOME AT HOLLIDAYSBURG	1.4%	88.2	C	PA	HOLLIDAYSBURG	89	—
1810	MERIDIAN NURSING HOME	1.4%	88.2	A	OK	COMANCHE	63	—
1811	MUSC Health Mullins Nursing Home	1.4%	88.2	A	SC	Mullins	92	MEDICAL UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH CAROLINA
1812	APOSTOLIC CHRISTIAN SKYLINES	1.4%	88.2	A	IL	PEORIA	62	—
1813	SURPRISE VALLEY COMMUNITY HOSPITAL D/P SNF	1.4%	88.2	A	CA	CEDARVILLE	22	—
1814	BELLAKEN SKILLED NURSING CENTER	1.4%	88.2	A	CA	OAKLAND	61	—
1815	Goldwater Care Marseilles	1.4%	88.2	D	IL	MARSEILLES	103	YOSEF MEYSTEL DELTA TRUST
1816	GOOD SAMARITAN CENTER	1.4%	88.2	A	FL	LIVE OAK	161	ADVENT CHRISTIAN VILLAGE INC
1817	UNC Rex Rehab & Nursing Care Center of Apex	1.4%	88.2	A	NC	Apex	107	UNIVERSITY OF NORTH CAROLINA HEALTH CARE SYSTEM
1818	CHINESE HOSPITAL D/P SNF	1.4%	88.2	A	CA	SAN FRANCISCO	23	—
1819	ST JOSEPHS HOME	1.4%	88.2	A	NY	OGDENSBURG	82	—
1820	LINDEN PONDS	1.4%	88.2	A	MA	HINGHAM	132	ERICKSON SENIOR LIVING LLC
1821	HART CARE CENTER	1.4%	88.1	A	GA	HARTWELL	117	—
1822	SOUTHINGTON CARE CENTER	1.4%	88.1	A	CT	SOUTHINGTON	130	—
1823	TRANSITIONAL SUB-ACUTE UNIT	1.4%	88.1	B	PA	WYOMISSING	50	—
1824	ELIZA AT CHAGRIN FALLS	1.4%	88.1	B	OH	CHAGRIN FALLS	29	—
1825	Story Medical Senior Care	1.4%	88.1	A	IA	Nevada	60	—
1826	Humboldt County Memorial Hospital	1.4%	88.1	A	IA	Humboldt	28	—
1827	Ossian Care Center	1.4%	88.1	A	IA	Ossian	46	—
1828	Colfax General LTC	1.4%	88.1	B	NM	SPRINGER	34	—
1829	SHEPHERD OF THE VALLEY POLAND	1.4%	88.1	A	OH	POLAND	32	SHEPHERD OF THE VALLEY LUTHERAN RETIREMENT SERVICES INC
1830	OHIO LIVING LAKE VISTA	1.4%	88.0	A	OH	CORTLAND	39	—
1831	Sand Springs Nursing and Rehabilitation	1.4%	88.0	F	OK	Sand Springs	173	—
1832	MAPLEWOOD CENTER	1.4%	88.0	C	MA	AMESBURY	120	—
1833	Penacook Place, Inc	1.4%	88.0	C	MA	HAVERHILL	160	COVENANT HEALTH
1834	ARLEIGH BURKE PAVILION	1.4%	88.0	B	VA	MC LEAN	49	NMCGR
1835	WESTMINSTER TOWERS	1.4%	88.0	C	FL	ORLANDO	120	WESTMINSTER SERVICES INC
1836	ST FRANCIS SENIOR MINISTRIES	1.4%	88.0	B	OH	TIFFIN	54	CSJ INITIATIVES INC
1837	Friendship Village Retirement	1.4%	88.0	B	IA	Waterloo	72	—
1838	Montereau, Inc.	1.4%	88.0	A	OK	Tulsa	74	—
1839	Anna John Resident Centered Care Community	1.4%	88.0	A	WI	Oneida	48	—
1840	SUNNYVIEW NURSING HOME & APARTMENTS	1.4%	88.0	C	MO	TRENTON	94	—
1841	HEALTH CENTER AT SINAI RESIDENCES	1.4%	88.0	C	FL	BOCA RATON	60	—
1842	Complete Care at Kensington	1.4%	88.0	D	WI	WAUKESHA	150	PEACE CAPITAL LLC
1843	SAINT FRANCIS REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	1.4%	88.0	A	NH	LACONIA	51	NH CATHOLIC CHARITIES INC
1844	Church Home Rehabilitation and Healthcare	1.4%	88.0	A	GA	FORT VALLEY	75	—
1845	PARKVIEW NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	1.3%	87.9	A	TX	BIG SPRING	0	—
1846	MILLENNIUM INSTITUTE FOR ADVANCE NURSING CARE INC	1.3%	87.9	B	PR	RIO PIEDRAS	35	—
1847	GINO J MERLI VETERANS CENTER	1.3%	87.9	A	PA	SCRANTON	196	—
1848	Isabella County Medical Care Facility	1.3%	87.9	A	MI	Mt. Pleasant	100	—
1849	OAK HAMMOCK AT THE UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA INC	1.3%	87.9	A	FL	GAINESVILLE	73	—
1850	Heritage Living Center	1.3%	87.9	A	MN	PARK RAPIDS	48	KNUTE NELSON

Showing 1,801–1,850 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.