Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

1,601–1,650

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
1601	ROCK HAVEN	1.6%	89.5	C	WI	JANESVILLE	128	—
1602	WESLEY ENHANCED LIVING - DOYLESTOWN	1.6%	89.5	A	PA	DOYLESTOWN	60	—
1603	ROBERT A BARNES CENTER	1.6%	89.5	A	OH	REYNOLDSBURG	25	—
1604	LIONS GATE	1.6%	89.5	A	NJ	VOORHEES	110	—
1605	MANOR AT CARPENTERS, THE	1.6%	89.5	A	FL	LAKELAND	72	—
1606	Rochester Rehabilitation And Living Center	1.6%	89.5	C	MN	ROCHESTER	56	VOLUNTEERS OF AMERICA NATIONAL SERVICES
1607	Marquette County Medical Care Facility	1.6%	89.5	A	MI	Ishpeming	140	—
1608	Veterans Victory House	1.6%	89.5	A	SC	Walterboro	220	STATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA COMPTROLLER GENERAL
1609	MISERICORDIA NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	1.6%	89.5	A	PA	YORK	50	—
1610	WEST VUE NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	1.6%	89.5	A	MO	WEST PLAINS	130	—
1611	PINE RIDGE HEALTH CARE LLP	1.6%	89.5	F	TX	LIVINGSTON	120	—
1612	KENDAL AT ITHACA	1.6%	89.5	A	NY	ITHACA	48	—
1613	Catholic Memorial Home	1.6%	89.5	B	MA	FALL RIVER	300	—
1614	BEZALEL REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	1.6%	89.5	A	NY	FAR ROCKAWAY	120	—
1615	CREVE COEUR MANOR	1.6%	89.5	D	MO	SAINT LOUIS	149	—
1616	HEALTHCARE AND REHAB OF SANFORD	1.6%	89.5	C	FL	SANFORD	114	—
1617	Town and Country Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	1.6%	89.5	C	TX	Boerne	0	MEDINA COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
1618	WILLOWBROOKE COURT SKILLED CENTER AT MANOR HOUSE	1.6%	89.5	A	DE	SEAFORD	15	ACTS MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
1619	BERKSHIRE PLACE	1.6%	89.5	A	MA	PITTSFIELD	54	—
1620	Dermott City Nursing Home	1.6%	89.5	B	AR	Dermott	70	—
1621	CHRIST'S HOME RETIREMENT COMMUNITY	1.6%	89.5	A	PA	WARMINSTER	48	—
1622	AMERICAN LUTHERAN HOME-MENOMONIE	1.6%	89.5	A	WI	MENOMONIE	37	LEADINGCHOICE NETWORK LLC
1623	RIVER GARDEN HEBREW HOME FOR THE AGED	1.6%	89.4	C	FL	JACKSONVILLE	180	—
1624	Wesley Commons Health And Rehabilitation Center	1.6%	89.4	A	SC	Greenwood	80	—
1625	TWIN TOWERS	1.6%	89.4	B	OH	CINCINNATI	75	—
1626	ALLIED SERVICES TRANSITIONAL REHAB UNIT	1.6%	89.4	A	PA	SCRANTON	51	ALLIED SERVICES FOUNDATION
1627	Cal Turner Rehab and Specialty Care	1.6%	89.4	A	KY	Scottsville	110	COMMONWEALTH HEALTH CORPORATION INC
1628	The Lutheran Village At Miller's Grant	1.6%	89.4	A	MD	ELLICOTT CITY	16	SODEXHO INC
1629	Heritage Crossings	1.6%	89.4	B	NE	Geneva	68	VETTER SENIOR LIVING
1630	CANTON CHRISTIAN HOME	1.6%	89.4	C	OH	CANTON	57	—
1631	UNC Rockingham Rehab & Nursing Care Center	1.6%	89.4	A	NC	Eden	121	UNIVERSITY OF NORTH CAROLINA HEALTH CARE SYSTEM
1632	VILLA SIENA	1.6%	89.4	A	CA	MOUNTAIN VIEW	30	—
1633	MOUNT CARMEL CARE CENTER	1.6%	89.3	A	MA	LENOX	69	THE CARMELITE SYSTEM INC
1634	MENNO HAVEN REHABILITATION CENTER	1.6%	89.3	B	PA	CHAMBERSBURG	44	—
1635	Avir at Temple West	1.6%	89.3	D	TX	TEMPLE	0	—
1636	SHERIDAN MEMORIAL NURSING HOME	1.6%	89.3	A	MT	PLENTYWOOD	45	—
1637	Heritage Home	1.6%	89.3	A	WY	Pinedale	50	—
1638	Midtown Manor	1.6%	89.3	A	UT	Salt Lake City	82	—
1639	ST ELIZABETH EDGEWOOD SNF	1.6%	89.3	A	KY	Edgewood	30	—
1640	Holland Home Breton Rehabilitation & Living Centre	1.6%	89.3	A	MI	Grand Rapids	58	CHRISTIAN LIVING SERVICES
1641	EAST JEFFERSON GENERAL HOSPITAL - SNF	1.6%	89.3	A	LA	METAIRIE	49	LOUISIANA CHILDREN S MEDICAL CENTER
1642	HASKELL CARE CENTER	1.6%	89.3	C	OK	HASKELL	58	—
1643	The Cottage Extended Care	1.6%	89.3	A	OK	Tulsa	176	—
1644	Canal View - Houghton County	1.6%	89.3	B	MI	Hancock	197	—
1645	LARKSFIELD PLACE	1.6%	89.3	A	KS	WICHITA	80	—
1646	PENN HIGHLANDS JEFFERSON MANOR	1.6%	89.3	C	PA	BROOKVILLE	160	PENN HIGHLANDS HEALTHCARE INC
1647	MORNING BREEZE RETIREMENT COMMUNITY AND HEALTHCARE	1.6%	89.2	B	IN	GREENSBURG	64	DECATUR COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
1648	FIELD CREST CARE CENTER	1.6%	89.2	A	MN	HAYFIELD	35	—
1649	VALLEY HEALTH CARE CENTER	1.6%	89.2	B	KS	VALLEY FALLS	40	—
1650	RANDOLPH COUNTY NURSING HOME	1.6%	89.2	B	AR	POCAHONTAS	140	—

Showing 1,601–1,650 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.