Reads as: riskier than 13.3% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
FL median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.60
3.42
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.79
0.45
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.37
3.31
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.69
3.48
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
65.4
3.60
0.79
0.42
2.39
3.37
0.0%
2025Q3
92
61.4
3.84
0.96
0.33
2.56
3.61
0.0%
2025Q2
91
58.3
4.16
1.02
0.42
2.72
3.93
0.0%
2025Q1
90
57.9
4.43
0.99
0.55
2.89
4.40
0.0%
2024Q4
92
56.8
4.99
0.98
0.83
3.18
4.90
0.0%
2024Q3
92
59.4
4.37
0.95
0.52
2.90
4.19
0.0%
2024Q2
91
66.2
4.09
0.76
0.65
2.68
3.91
0.0%
2024Q1
91
69.2
3.98
0.66
0.56
2.77
3.89
0.0%
2023Q4
92
69.3
3.73
0.62
0.61
2.50
3.57
0.0%
2023Q3
92
72.2
3.71
0.68
0.53
2.50
3.58
0.0%
2023Q2
91
64.6
4.11
0.69
0.55
2.87
3.99
0.0%
2023Q1
90
62.6
4.10
0.87
0.30
2.93
4.09
0.0%
2022Q4
92
58.2
4.42
0.77
0.44
3.21
4.36
0.0%
2022Q3
92
55.4
5.01
0.85
0.60
3.56
4.63
0.0%
2022Q2
91
53.0
4.51
0.75
0.45
3.31
4.16
0.0%
2022Q1
90
52.0
4.49
0.79
0.50
3.20
4.30
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
G
2025-04-07
2025-03-17
Health · complaint
F0607
Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft.
G
2025-04-07
2024-01-18
Health
F0554
Allow residents to self-administer drugs if determined clinically appropriate.
D
2024-02-17
2024-01-18
Health
F0645
PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities
D
2024-02-17
2024-01-18
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2024-02-17
2022-02-11
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2022-03-11
2022-02-11
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2022-03-11
2022-02-11
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2022-03-11
2022-02-11
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2022-03-11
2022-02-11
Health
F0886
Perform COVID19 testing on residents and staff.
D
2022-03-11
2020-12-04
Health
F0557
Honor the resident's right to be treated with respect and dignity and to retain and use personal possessions.
D
2021-01-04
2020-12-04
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2021-01-04
2020-12-04
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2021-01-04
2020-12-04
Health
F0806
Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food that accommodates resident allergies, intolerances, and preferences, as well as appealing options.
D
2021-01-04
2020-12-04
Health
F0810
Provide special eating equipment and utensils for residents who need them and appropriate assistance.
D
2021-01-04
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
27
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
CARPENTERS HOME ESTATES INC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
—
current
pecos_ownership
CHAPPEL, CHRISTOPHER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2016-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
CHAPPEL, CHRISTOPHER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-10-03
current
pecos_ownership
GILLMAN, LEO
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
1995-01-15
current
pecos_ownership
GOSS, JOSEPH
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-01-27
current
pecos_ownership
LAIDLER, WALTER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2015-01-26
current
pecos_ownership
LAYFIELD, ANGELA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-04-02
current
pecos_ownership
MABE, BEAUFORD
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2014-01-27
current
pecos_ownership
MCCRANEY, S LOU
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2005-01-05
current
pecos_ownership
ROBARE, BRIAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
SCRUGGS, DAVID
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-03-29
current
pecos_ownership
STROZIER, JEFFREY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-10
current
pecos_ownership
STROZIER, JEFFREY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-05-05
current
pecos_ownership
VESPA, DAVID
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2014-01-27
current
pecos_ownership
BEAUFORD MABE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2014-01-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRIAN ROBARE
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WALTER LAIDLER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2015-01-26
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANGELA LAYFIELD
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-04-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHRISTOPHER CHAPPEL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-10-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHRISTOPHER CHAPPEL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2016-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID SCRUGGS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-03-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID VESPA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2014-01-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JEFFREY STROZIER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JEFFREY STROZIER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-05-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOSEPH GOSS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-01-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LEO GILLMAN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
1995-01-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
S LOU MCCRANEY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2005-01-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 12105
acs median gross
0
$1,033
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12105
fmr
0
$1,226
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12105
acs median gross
1
$1,044
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12105
fmr
1
$1,230
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12105
acs median gross
2
$1,242
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12105
fmr
2
$1,497
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12105
acs median gross
3
$1,644
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12105
fmr
3
$2,023
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12105
acs median gross
4
$2,115
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12105
fmr
4
$2,511
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12105
acs median gross
5
$1,815
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12105
acs median gross
$1,363
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12105
acs recent mover gross
$1,718
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 33809
acs median gross
0
$1,753
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 33809
acs median gross
1
$1,403
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 33809
acs median gross
2
$1,400
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 33809
acs median gross
3
$1,722
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 33809
acs median gross
4
$1,519
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 33809
acs median gross
$1,510
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 33809
acs recent mover gross
$1,496
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 33809
payment standard 110
0
$1,529
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33809
payment standard 90
0
$1,251
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33809
safmr
0
$1,390
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33809
payment standard 110
1
$1,540
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33809
payment standard 90
1
$1,260
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33809
safmr
1
$1,400
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33809
payment standard 110
2
$1,870
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33809
payment standard 90
2
$1,530
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33809
safmr
2
$1,700
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33809
payment standard 110
3
$2,530
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33809
payment standard 90
3
$2,070
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33809
safmr
3
$2,300
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33809
payment standard 110
4
$3,135
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33809
payment standard 90
4
$2,565
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33809
safmr
4
$2,850
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.