Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

10,201–10,250

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
10201	BAYWOOD COURT D/P SNF OF EDEN HOSPITAL	0.2%	37.0	—	CA	CASTRO VALLEY	—	—
10202	OUR LADY OF PERPETUAL HELP	0.2%	37.0	A	VA	VIRGINIA BEACH	30	—
10203	LINCOLN HOSPITAL	0.2%	37.0	—	WA	DAVENPORT	—	—
10204	ST AUGUSTINE MANOR	0.2%	37.0	B	OH	CLEVELAND	220	—
10205	ALPINE VALLEY CARE CENTER	0.2%	37.0	—	TX	ALPINE	—	—
10206	KENDAL ON HUDSON	0.2%	37.0	A	NY	SLEEPY HOLLOW	26	—
10207	FAYETTEVILLE CITY HOSPITAL AND GERIATRIC CENTER	0.2%	37.0	—	AR	FAYETTEVILLE	—	—
10208	WHIDDEN MEM. HOSP. TCU	0.2%	37.0	—	MA	EVERETT	—	—
10209	GENESIS HEALTHCARE SYSTEM	0.2%	37.0	—	OH	ZANESVILLE	—	—
10210	FOREST OAKS NURSING HOME	0.2%	37.0	—	TX	HAMILTON	—	—
10211	MERCY MEDICAL CTR SUBACUTE	0.2%	37.0	—	WI	OSHKOSH	—	—
10212	TERRY HAVEN NURSING CENTER	0.2%	37.0	—	TX	MOUNT VERNON	—	—
10213	WESTHAVEN NURSING CENTER	0.2%	37.0	—	TX	FORT WORTH	0	—
10214	VILLA AT RIVER PARKWAY (THE)	0.2%	37.0	—	WI	MILWAUKEE	—	—
10215	MEDA NIPPLE CONVALESCENT HOME	0.2%	37.0	—	PA	THOMPSONTOWN	0	—
10216	SHORE MEMORIAL HOSPITAL	0.2%	37.0	—	VA	NASSAWADOX	—	—
10217	WEST VUE NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.2%	37.0	A	MO	WEST PLAINS	130	—
10218	WHISPERING PINES NURSING CENTER	0.2%	37.0	—	OK	NORMAN	0	—
10219	COLORADO FAYETTE MEDICAL CTR	0.2%	37.0	—	TX	WEIMAR	0	—
10220	MEADOWS AT PUTNAM ACRES THE	0.2%	37.0	—	OH	OTTAWA	0	—
10221	WESTMINSTER-CANTERBURY ON CHESAPEAKE BAY	0.2%	37.0	A	VA	VIRGINIA BEACH	108	FUNCTIONAL PATHWAYS OF TENNESSEE LLC
10222	REGENCY HOUSE	0.2%	37.0	B	TX	SAN ANGELO	0	STRATFORD HOSPITAL DISTRICT
10223	MT ASCUTNEY NURSING HOME	0.2%	37.0	—	VT	WINDSOR	—	—
10224	HAMMOND-WHITING CARE CENTER	0.2%	37.0	C	IN	WHITING	80	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
10225	Mountain Vista Health Park	0.2%	37.0	A	NC	Denton	60	—
10226	PARKER OAKS COMMUNITIES INC	0.2%	37.0	—	MN	WINNEBAGO	0	—
10227	DAVIS HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.2%	37.0	—	CA	DAVIS	—	—
10228	ST CATHERINE HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION CTR	0.2%	37.0	—	NM	ALBUQUERQUE	0	—
10229	WINDSOR MANOR HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.2%	37.0	—	IN	INDIANAPOLIS	0	—
10230	HOCKING VALLEY COMMUNITY HOSP SNF	0.2%	37.0	—	OH	LOGAN	—	—
10231	PROGRESSIVE CARE CENTER	0.2%	37.0	—	PA	UNIONTOWN	—	—
10232	BIALYSTOKER CENTER FOR NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.2%	37.0	—	NY	NEW YORK	—	—
10233	BENEDICTINE MANOR OF ARCADIA	0.2%	37.0	—	WI	ARCADIA	—	—
10234	ANSON HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.2%	37.0	—	TX	ANSON	0	—
10235	FAIR OAKS	0.2%	37.0	—	IL	GREENVILLE	—	—
10236	GOLDEN LIVINGCENTER - FREDONIA	0.2%	37.0	—	KS	FREDONIA	—	—
10237	RESIDENCE AT PARK VIEW THE	0.2%	37.0	—	OH	CINCINNATI	—	—
10238	BOYCE MANOR NURSING HOME	0.2%	37.0	—	OK	HOLDENVILLE	0	—
10239	GOLDEN LIVINGCENTER - OTTER TAIL LAKE	0.2%	37.0	—	MN	BATTLE LAKE	0	—
10240	RUSSELL NURSING HOME	0.2%	37.0	—	OH	ALBANY	—	—
10241	AMBERWOOD CARE CENTER	0.2%	37.0	—	TX	CELINA	0	—
10242	PITTSFIELD REHAB & NURSING	0.2%	37.0	—	ME	PITTSFIELD	—	—
10243	KINNEY NURSING HOME	0.2%	37.0	—	NY	GOUVERNEUR	—	—
10244	ST JOSEPHS HEALTH AND RETIREMENT CENTER	0.2%	37.0	—	CA	OJAI	—	—
10245	RYAN NURSING HOME	0.2%	37.0	—	OK	RYAN	0	—
10246	BRIDGEWATER HOME , INC.	0.2%	37.0	A	VA	BRIDGEWATER	127	—
10247	GRIDLEY HEALTHCARE & WELLNESS CENTRE LLC	0.2%	37.0	—	CA	GRIDLEY	0	—
10248	KAUAI CARE CENTER	0.2%	37.0	—	HI	WAIMEA	—	—
10249	HARBORSIDE NURSING AND REHAB CENTER	0.2%	37.0	—	MD	BALTIMORE	0	—
10250	Eskaton Village Care Center	0.2%	37.0	A	CA	Carmichael	35	ESKATON PROPERTIES INCORPORATED

Showing 10,201–10,250 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.