Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

10,151–10,200

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
10151	VILLA ST FRANCIS CATHOLIC CARE CENTER INC	0.2%	37.0	A	KS	OLATHE	170	—
10152	EDGEMONT CENTER,INC	0.2%	37.0	—	VA	WYTHEVILLE	—	—
10153	SUNVIEW CARE & REHAB CENTER LLC	0.2%	37.0	—	TX	SAN ANTONIO	0	—
10154	SILVERADO SENIOR LIVING - TURTLE CREEK	0.2%	37.0	—	TX	DALLAS	—	—
10155	HAWAII MEDICAL CENTER EAST	0.2%	37.0	—	HI	HONOLULU	—	—
10156	GARDENS-LAGRANGE/VICTORIAN MANOR	0.2%	37.0	—	IL	LA GRANGE	0	—
10157	ST. MARY'S REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER	0.2%	37.0	—	OK	ENID	—	—
10158	OAKVIEW HEALTHCARE RESIDENCE LTD	0.2%	37.0	—	TX	HUBBARD	—	—
10159	EDWIN MORGAN CTR OF SCOTLAND M	0.2%	37.0	—	NC	LAURINBURG	—	—
10160	PALACIOS HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.2%	37.0	—	TX	PALACIOS	—	—
10161	REHAB INST OF N Y AT FLORENCE NIGHTINGALE H C	0.2%	37.0	—	NY	NEW YORK	—	—
10162	AMERICARE CONVALESCENT CTR	0.2%	37.0	—	MI	DETROIT	—	—
10163	VIVIANS NURSING HOME	0.2%	37.0	—	TX	AMARILLO	0	—
10164	MUENSTER HEALTH & REHABILITATION	0.2%	37.0	—	TX	MUENSTER	0	—
10165	PIONEER MEDICAL CENTER LTC	0.2%	37.0	—	MT	BIG TIMBER	0	—
10166	MCGIRR NURSING HOME	0.2%	37.0	—	VT	BELLOWS FALLS	—	—
10167	MANORCARE HEALTH SERVICES OF WEST DES MOINES	0.2%	37.0	—	IA	WEST DES MOINES	—	—
10168	REFORMED CHURCH HOME	0.2%	37.0	B	NJ	OLD BRIDGE	108	—
10169	CRESCENT COURT NURSING HOME	0.2%	37.0	—	CA	LODI	0	—
10170	HEARTLAND CARE OF HOBBS	0.2%	37.0	—	NM	HOBBS	—	—
10171	SSM DEPAUL HEALTH CENTER	0.2%	37.0	—	MO	BRIDGETON	0	—
10172	SNOW VALLEY NRSG & REHAB CTR	0.2%	37.0	—	IL	LISLE	—	—
10173	LILY POND NURSING HOME	0.2%	37.0	—	NY	STATEN ISLAND	—	—
10174	WINLEN OAKS LIVING CENTER	0.2%	37.0	—	OK	FREDERICK	0	—
10175	HOSPICE OF SAINT JOHN - LTC	0.2%	37.0	—	CO	LAKEWOOD	—	—
10176	EVERGREEN CENTRALIA HEALTH & R	0.2%	37.0	—	WA	CENTRALIA	0	—
10177	ELMWOOD NURSING CENTER	0.2%	37.0	—	TX	MARLIN	0	—
10178	EAST GRAND NURSING HOME	0.2%	37.0	—	MI	DETROIT	0	—
10179	LAKELAND SPECIALTY HOSPITAL AT BERRIEN CENTER	0.2%	37.0	—	MI	BERRIEN CENTER	—	—
10180	PARK MANOR NURSING HOME	0.2%	37.0	—	NJ	BLOOMFIELD	—	—
10181	ARIZONA GRAND SENIOR LIVING COMMUNITY	0.2%	37.0	—	AZ	PHOENIX	0	—
10182	YORK HOSPITAL STRATER UNIT	0.2%	37.0	—	ME	YORK	0	—
10183	SPRING BRANCH HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.2%	37.0	—	TX	HOUSTON	—	—
10184	MANORCARE HEALTH SERVICES-NORTHWEST	0.2%	37.0	—	OK	OKLAHOMA CITY	—	—
10185	TEMPLE COMMUNITY HOSP D P SNF	0.2%	37.0	—	CA	LOS ANGELES	—	—
10186	EASTERN SHORE CENTER	0.2%	37.0	—	NJ	CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE	—	—
10187	ST VINCENT INFIRMARY MEDICAL CENTER	0.2%	37.0	—	AR	LITTLE ROCK	—	—
10188	VILLAGE VISTA MANOR	0.2%	37.0	—	PA	LANCASTER	0	—
10189	MCCURDY HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.2%	37.0	—	IN	EVANSVILLE	0	—
10190	JACOBSON MEMORIAL HOSPITAL CARE CENTER	0.2%	37.0	—	ND	ELGIN	—	—
10191	JEFFERSON COUNTY NURSING HOME	0.2%	37.0	A	TN	DANDRIDGE	160	—
10192	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY - GIBBON	0.2%	37.0	—	NE	GIBBON	—	—
10193	GREENS AT CREEKSIDE, THE	0.2%	37.0	—	MO	KANSAS CITY	0	—
10194	CLEBURNE REHABILITATION AND HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.2%	37.0	—	TX	CLEBURNE	0	—
10195	EDWARD WHITE SKILLED NURSING UNIT	0.2%	37.0	—	FL	SAINT PETERSBURG	—	—
10196	GREENSPRING NURSING	0.2%	37.0	—	MD	BALTIMORE	—	—
10197	SANFORD SUBACUTE	0.2%	37.0	—	ND	BISMARCK	—	—
10198	THE HEALTH CENTER AT CONCORDIA	0.2%	37.0	B	OK	OKLAHOMA CITY	30	—
10199	ARCHER CITY NURSING CENTER	0.2%	37.0	A	TX	ARCHER CITY	0	—
10200	EMMANUEL CONV - SAN JOAQUIN	0.2%	37.0	—	CA	BAKERSFIELD	0	—

Showing 10,151–10,200 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.