3333 NORTH CIVIC CENTER PLAZA, SCOTTSDALE, AZ 85251 · CCN 035076 · chain THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
Composite
8.9 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
130
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 8.9% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
6
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
18 chains
ENSIGN SERVICES INC
286 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
18 chains
CTR PARTNERSHIP LP
99 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
17 chains
BURNAM SOON
335 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
17 chains
KEETCH CHAD
283 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
15 chains
CARETRUST REIT INC
96 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
11 chains
CARETRUST GP LLC
89 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later lease_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
AZ median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.90
3.53
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.45
0.43
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.69
3.35
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.99
3.62
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
111.5
3.90
0.45
0.90
2.55
3.69
0.0%
2025Q3
92
112.3
3.98
0.48
0.93
2.57
3.63
0.0%
2025Q2
91
109.2
3.98
0.49
0.93
2.56
3.60
0.0%
2025Q1
90
106.0
4.00
0.52
0.96
2.52
3.63
0.0%
2024Q4
92
103.9
4.21
0.46
0.98
2.77
3.68
0.0%
2024Q3
92
105.6
3.99
0.56
0.87
2.55
3.57
0.1%
2024Q2
91
99.6
3.87
0.56
0.90
2.42
3.47
0.0%
2024Q1
91
99.0
3.85
0.42
1.02
2.41
3.45
0.0%
2023Q4
92
94.8
3.99
0.40
1.07
2.52
3.64
0.0%
2023Q3
92
99.0
3.99
0.42
1.04
2.54
3.67
0.0%
2023Q2
91
100.5
3.97
0.61
0.91
2.45
3.51
0.0%
2023Q1
90
106.6
3.60
0.49
0.84
2.27
3.19
0.0%
2022Q4
92
98.0
3.77
0.46
0.89
2.43
3.49
5.9%
2022Q3
92
95.6
3.70
0.47
0.86
2.36
3.51
22.8%
2022Q2
91
98.6
3.45
0.61
0.75
2.10
3.11
13.4%
2022Q1
90
100.9
3.55
0.41
0.92
2.22
3.21
18.5%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
8
D × 4E × 4
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-01-16
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2026-02-23
2025-07-11
Health · complaint
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2025-08-25
2024-10-10
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
E
2024-11-24
2024-10-10
Health
F0676
Ensure residents do not lose the ability to perform activities of daily living unless there is a medical reason.
E
2024-11-24
2024-10-10
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2024-11-24
2023-09-29
Health
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
D
2023-11-13
2023-09-29
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
E
2023-11-13
2023-09-29
Health
F0757
Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs.
E
2023-11-13
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
25
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
BURNAM, SOON
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2006-09-25
current
pecos_ownership
CARETRUST GP LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2006-09-25
current
pecos_ownership
CARETRUST REIT INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2006-09-25
current
pecos_ownership
CTR PARTNERSHIP LP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2006-09-25
current
pecos_ownership
ENSIGN SERVICES INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2006-09-25
current
pecos_ownership
KEETCH, CHAD
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2011-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
MONKS, CHANDLER
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-09-09
current
pecos_ownership
PETERSON, FORREST
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-09-25
current
pecos_ownership
PORT, BARRY
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-09
current
pecos_ownership
RB HEIGHTS HEALTH HOLDINGS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2006-09-25
current
pecos_ownership
RB HEIGHTS HEALTH HOLDINGS LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
RB HEIGHTS HEALTH HOLDINGS LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
SATO, AMI
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-09-09
current
pecos_ownership
SESSIONS, TROY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-03-20
current
pecos_ownership
SRIVASTAVA, VINEE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-05-02
current
pecos_ownership
BANDERA HEALTHCARE LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2006-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2006-09-25
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SOON BURNAM
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2006-09-25
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AMI SATO
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-09-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHAD KEETCH
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2011-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHANDLER MONKS
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-09-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
FORREST PETERSON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-09-25
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RB HEIGHTS HEALTH HOLDINGS LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
TROY SESSIONS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-03-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
VINEE SRIVASTAVA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-05-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$2,096,800
—
$1,265,722
—
—
6
propco
2023-12-31
$2,078,448
—
$1,047,172
—
$34,769
6
propco
2022-12-31
$2,237,214
—
$1,108,171
—
—
6
propco
2021-12-31
$1,769,577
—
$957,390
—
—
5
—
2020-12-31
$1,378,902
—
$809,200
—
$8,316
5
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 04013
acs median gross
0
$1,383
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04013
fmr
0
$1,457
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 04013
acs median gross
1
$1,453
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04013
fmr
1
$1,583
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 04013
acs median gross
2
$1,698
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04013
fmr
2
$1,839
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 04013
acs median gross
3
$2,027
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04013
fmr
3
$2,452
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 04013
acs median gross
4
$2,312
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04013
fmr
4
$2,720
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 04013
acs median gross
5
$2,632
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04013
acs median gross
$1,708
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04013
acs recent mover gross
$1,867
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85251
acs median gross
0
$1,768
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85251
acs median gross
1
$1,735
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85251
acs median gross
2
$1,954
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85251
acs median gross
3
$2,309
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85251
acs median gross
4
$2,642
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85251
acs median gross
$1,867
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85251
acs recent mover gross
$2,020
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 85251
payment standard 110
0
$1,914
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85251
payment standard 90
0
$1,566
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85251
safmr
0
$1,740
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85251
payment standard 110
1
$2,079
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85251
payment standard 90
1
$1,701
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85251
safmr
1
$1,890
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85251
payment standard 110
2
$2,420
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85251
payment standard 90
2
$1,980
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85251
safmr
2
$2,200
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85251
payment standard 110
3
$3,223
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85251
payment standard 90
3
$2,637
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85251
safmr
3
$2,930
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85251
payment standard 110
4
$3,575
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85251
payment standard 90
4
$2,925
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85251
safmr
4
$3,250
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.