Reads as: riskier than 38.3% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
8
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+25.1 vs natl
HOOPER GRADY
61 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
18 chains
CTR PARTNERSHIP LP
99 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
18 chains
ENSIGN SERVICES INC
286 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
17 chains
BURNAM SOON
335 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
17 chains
KEETCH CHAD
283 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
15 chains
CARETRUST REIT INC
96 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
11 chains
CARETRUST GP LLC
89 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
49% fined
HOOPER GRADY
61 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
TX median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.83
2.67
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.22
0.24
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.72
2.56
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.88
2.72
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
109.4
2.83
0.22
0.76
1.85
2.72
1.8%
2025Q3
92
109.8
2.74
0.20
0.75
1.79
2.66
3.1%
2025Q2
91
110.0
2.65
0.22
0.71
1.72
2.56
0.9%
2025Q1
90
108.7
2.65
0.23
0.72
1.69
2.67
1.8%
2024Q4
92
108.0
2.71
0.21
0.71
1.78
2.77
2.1%
2024Q3
92
110.8
2.73
0.17
0.71
1.85
2.74
1.3%
2024Q2
91
111.2
2.52
0.22
0.64
1.66
2.59
2.5%
2024Q1
91
106.5
2.62
0.19
0.70
1.73
2.68
0.1%
2023Q4
92
105.1
2.57
0.16
0.75
1.66
2.59
4.4%
2023Q3
92
104.0
2.56
0.15
0.69
1.72
2.62
5.3%
2023Q2
91
97.2
2.60
0.09
0.79
1.73
2.73
5.0%
2023Q1
90
96.9
2.37
0.11
0.70
1.56
2.54
7.1%
2022Q4
92
91.9
2.58
0.16
0.71
1.71
2.70
6.7%
2022Q3
92
91.8
2.31
0.18
0.68
1.45
2.30
3.1%
2022Q2
91
85.9
2.72
0.10
0.93
1.69
2.74
16.6%
2022Q1
90
77.2
2.32
0.05
0.90
1.38
2.26
9.3%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
9
D × 6E × 2G × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-01-23
Health · complaint
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2026-01-26
2026-01-23
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2026-01-26
2026-01-08
Health
F0558
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
D
2026-01-09
2026-01-08
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
E
2026-01-09
2026-01-08
Health
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
D
2026-01-09
2026-01-08
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2026-01-09
2024-03-04
Health · complaint
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
G
2024-03-05
2023-08-30
Health
F0558
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
D
2023-09-25
2023-08-30
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2023-09-25
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
19
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
APPLE SPRINGS HEALTHCARE, INC
—
—
2023-12-01
current
tx_hhsc_directory
APPLE SPRINGS HEALTHCARE, INC.
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-10-31
current
pecos_ownership
APPLE SPRINGS HEALTHCARE, INC.
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
BALDWIN, SHAUN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
BURNAM, SOON
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2023-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
CARETRUST GP LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
CARETRUST REIT INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
CTR PARTNERSHIP LP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
ENSIGN SERVICES INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-06-18
current
pecos_ownership
HAMILTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
—
—
2023-12-01
current
tx_hhsc_directory
HOOPER, GRADY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2023-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
KEETCH, CHAD
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2011-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
PHILIP, ANJANA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-27
current
pecos_ownership
HAMILTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2023-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GRADY HOOPER
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2023-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHAUN BALDWIN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
0%
2023-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANJANA PHILIP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHAD KEETCH
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2011-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SOON BURNAM
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2023-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
6
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-09-30
$1,135,425
—
$899,828
—
—
3
—
2023-11-30
$1,253,851
—
$899,828
—
—
3
—
2022-12-31
$1,121,695
—
$886,416
—
—
3
—
2021-12-31
$265,634
—
$185,090
—
—
3
—
2021-07-31
$80,373
—
—
—
$11,272
1
—
2021-05-31
$470,797
—
—
—
$66,663
1
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 48491
acs median gross
0
$1,577
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48491
fmr
0
$1,474
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48491
acs median gross
1
$1,457
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48491
fmr
1
$1,562
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48491
acs median gross
2
$1,781
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48491
fmr
2
$1,852
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48491
acs median gross
3
$2,154
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48491
fmr
3
$2,347
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48491
acs median gross
4
$2,584
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48491
fmr
4
$2,760
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48491
acs median gross
5
$2,617
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48491
acs median gross
$1,796
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48491
acs recent mover gross
$1,868
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 78613
acs median gross
0
$1,522
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 78613
acs median gross
1
$1,499
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 78613
acs median gross
2
$1,887
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 78613
acs median gross
3
$2,222
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 78613
acs median gross
4
$2,616
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 78613
acs median gross
5
$2,045
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 78613
acs median gross
$1,815
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 78613
acs recent mover gross
$1,864
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 78613
payment standard 110
0
$1,749
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78613
payment standard 90
0
$1,431
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78613
safmr
0
$1,590
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78613
payment standard 110
1
$1,859
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78613
payment standard 90
1
$1,521
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78613
safmr
1
$1,690
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78613
payment standard 110
2
$2,200
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78613
payment standard 90
2
$1,800
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78613
safmr
2
$2,000
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78613
payment standard 110
3
$2,783
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78613
payment standard 90
3
$2,277
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78613
safmr
3
$2,530
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78613
payment standard 110
4
$3,278
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78613
payment standard 90
4
$2,682
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78613
safmr
4
$2,980
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.