1119 S. RED RIVER EXPRESSWAY, BURKBURNETT, TX 76354 · CCN 676415 · chain NOCONA HOSPITAL DISTRICT
Composite
33.0 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
130
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 33.0% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
8
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+22.5 vs natl
FOURSQUARE TEXAS 16 LLC
7 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+22.5 vs natl
ROCKETT LP
7 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+22.5 vs natl
RMM 5X5 TRUST
7 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+22.5 vs natl
DWM 5X5 TRUST
7 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+21.7 vs natl
FAIRBROOK PARTNERS LP
10 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
MILLER JOHN
18 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
MILLER RICHARD
13 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
MILLER DAVID
13 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
TX median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.62
2.67
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.23
0.24
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.29
2.56
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.74
2.72
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
117.0
2.62
0.23
0.79
1.59
2.29
0.0%
2025Q3
92
117.3
2.61
0.24
0.73
1.64
2.28
0.0%
2025Q2
91
114.4
2.42
0.13
0.75
1.54
2.27
0.0%
2025Q1
90
124.3
2.20
0.15
0.71
1.33
2.06
0.0%
2024Q4
92
118.5
2.28
0.19
0.68
1.40
2.09
0.0%
2024Q3
92
110.9
2.36
0.12
0.74
1.50
2.15
0.0%
2024Q2
91
109.6
2.46
0.12
0.80
1.54
2.26
0.0%
2024Q1
91
110.3
2.34
0.09
0.78
1.47
2.17
0.0%
2023Q4
92
110.9
2.37
0.10
0.82
1.44
2.16
0.0%
2023Q3
92
110.9
2.17
0.12
0.86
1.19
2.03
0.0%
2023Q2
91
115.5
2.01
0.11
0.80
1.10
1.90
0.0%
2023Q1
90
114.9
2.44
0.11
0.89
1.44
2.10
0.0%
2022Q4
92
111.0
2.49
0.13
0.99
1.38
2.15
0.0%
2022Q3
92
118.1
2.18
0.01
0.91
1.26
1.90
0.0%
2022Q2
91
109.3
2.38
0.03
1.06
1.29
2.03
0.0%
2022Q1
90
109.2
2.50
0.01
1.14
1.35
2.15
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
13
D × 5E × 8
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-03-11
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2026-03-23
2026-03-11
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2026-03-23
2024-12-31
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
D
2025-01-31
2024-12-31
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
E
2025-01-31
2024-12-31
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
E
2025-01-31
2024-03-29
Health · complaint
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
E
2024-04-04
2024-02-16
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2024-02-17
2023-10-19
Health
F0636
Assess the resident completely in a timely manner when first admitted, and then periodically, at least every 12 months.
D
2023-10-27
2023-10-19
Health
F0655
Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted
E
2023-10-27
2023-10-19
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2023-11-02
2023-10-19
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
E
2023-10-27
2023-10-19
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2023-10-27
2023-10-19
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2023-10-27
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
44
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
BURKE REALTY NH
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2023-02-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
BURKE REALTY NH
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
NOCONA HOSPITAL DISTRICT
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2024-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
BURKE NH REALTY LTD
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
—
2024-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
CAMPBELL, JOHN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
CAMPBELL, KENNETH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
DAVID W MILLER GS TRUST
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
DWM 5X5 TRUST
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
—
2024-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
FAIRBROOK PARTNERS, LP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
FOURSQUARE TEXAS 16 LLC
—
—
2024-02-01
current
tx_hhsc_directory
FOURSQUARE TEXAS 16 LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-22
current
pecos_ownership
FOURSQUARE TEXAS 16 LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
JEC GS TRUST
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
JEM 5X5 TRUST
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
JOHN E MILLER GS TRUST
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
KINGSBURY CAPITAL LLC SERIES F
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
KJC GS TRUST
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
LEWIS, SHANE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
LION PLAZA LP
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
MEEKINS, GREG
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
MILLER, DAVID
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
MILLER, DON
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
—
2024-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
MILLER, JOHN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
MILLER, RICHARD
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
MNH-INV SERIES LLC SERIES D
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
MONTAGUE NH, LP
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
—
2024-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
NOCONA HOSPITAL DISTRICT
—
—
2024-02-01
current
tx_hhsc_directory
PARKEY, J
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
RICHARD M MILLER GS TRUST
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
RMM 5X5 TRUST
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
—
2024-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
ROCKETT, LP
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
—
2024-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
SDL GS 5X5 TRUST
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
—
2024-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
BURKE REALTY NH
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
BURKE REALTY NH
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
BURKE REALTY NH
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
DON MILLER
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
0%
2024-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GREG MEEKINS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2024-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID MILLER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
J PARKEY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN CAMPBELL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN MILLER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KENNETH CAMPBELL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RICHARD MILLER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHANE LEWIS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-01-31
$113,741
$60,385
$53,356
—
—
2
propco
2023-12-31
$1,377,519
$737,246
$640,273
—
—
2
propco
2022-12-31
$1,122,054
$546,398
$575,656
—
—
2
propco
2021-12-31
$1,396,929
$848,643
$548,286
—
—
2
propco
2020-12-31
$1,349,122
$904,567
$444,555
—
—
2
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
33
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 48485
acs median gross
0
$796
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48485
fmr
0
$831
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48485
acs median gross
1
$822
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48485
fmr
1
$925
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48485
acs median gross
2
$981
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48485
fmr
2
$1,136
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48485
acs median gross
3
$1,265
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48485
fmr
3
$1,553
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48485
acs median gross
4
$1,466
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48485
fmr
4
$1,759
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48485
acs median gross
5
$1,113
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48485
acs median gross
$1,006
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48485
acs recent mover gross
$1,183
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 76354
acs median gross
1
$657
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 76354
acs median gross
2
$917
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 76354
acs median gross
3
$1,230
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 76354
acs median gross
4
$1,071
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 76354
acs median gross
$964
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 76354
payment standard 110
0
$869
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76354
payment standard 90
0
$711
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76354
safmr
0
$790
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76354
payment standard 110
1
$968
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76354
payment standard 90
1
$792
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76354
safmr
1
$880
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76354
payment standard 110
2
$1,188
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76354
payment standard 90
2
$972
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76354
safmr
2
$1,080
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76354
payment standard 110
3
$1,628
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76354
payment standard 90
3
$1,332
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76354
safmr
3
$1,480
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76354
payment standard 110
4
$1,837
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76354
payment standard 90
4
$1,503
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76354
safmr
4
$1,670
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.