Reads as: riskier than 94.7% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
22
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+27.9 vs natl
SCROGGINS BRIAN
10 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+27.5 vs natl
RINER MEERA
46 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+27.1 vs natl
DECATUR HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
9 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+26.4 vs natl
LEE BRIAN
46 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+26.0 vs natl
FALLON JOHN
20 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+24.3 vs natl
PIERCE DANIEL
16 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+23.4 vs natl
KIRLEY FRANCIS
50 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+23.1 vs natl
OSWALD JOHN
13 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
10 chains
KIRLEY FRANCIS
49 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
8 chains
RINER MEERA
46 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
8 chains
FALLON JOHN
20 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
8 chains
PIERCE DANIEL
16 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
LEE BRIAN
46 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
OSWALD JOHN
13 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
77% fined
OSWALD JOHN
13 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
75% fined
PIERCE DANIEL
16 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
70% fined
SCROGGINS BRIAN
10 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
67% fined
DECATUR HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
9 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
46% fined
RINER MEERA
46 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
45% fined
FALLON JOHN
20 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
44% fined
KIRLEY FRANCIS
50 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
44% fined
LEE BRIAN
46 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
TX median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.26
2.67
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.16
0.24
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.05
2.56
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.34
2.72
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
72.8
3.26
0.16
0.93
2.18
3.05
0.0%
2025Q3
92
76.1
3.26
0.11
0.89
2.25
2.95
0.0%
2025Q2
91
77.4
3.24
0.10
0.86
2.28
3.00
0.0%
2025Q1
90
76.8
3.14
0.12
0.84
2.18
2.98
0.0%
2024Q4
92
77.2
3.12
0.10
0.85
2.18
2.97
0.0%
2024Q3
92
76.2
2.92
0.09
0.80
2.02
2.73
0.0%
2024Q2
91
64.0
2.84
0.21
0.68
1.95
2.65
0.0%
2024Q1
91
60.3
2.87
0.23
0.73
1.91
2.65
0.0%
2023Q4
92
72.3
2.93
0.16
0.80
1.97
2.71
0.0%
2023Q3
92
77.8
3.08
0.16
0.86
2.06
2.82
1.0%
2023Q2
91
76.2
3.00
0.18
0.83
1.99
2.73
4.6%
2023Q1
90
74.8
2.98
0.14
0.96
1.89
2.71
3.9%
2022Q4
92
71.1
2.93
0.16
0.98
1.78
2.70
0.3%
2022Q3
92
56.5
2.72
0.23
0.90
1.59
2.50
1.2%
2022Q2
91
47.5
2.92
0.27
0.92
1.73
2.67
1.3%
2022Q1
90
46.5
3.18
0.23
1.09
1.86
2.80
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube.
E
2026-03-04
2025-08-28
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
E
2025-09-05
2025-08-28
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2025-08-29
2025-08-28
Health
F0679
Provide activities to meet all resident's needs.
D
2025-08-29
2025-08-28
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2025-08-29
2025-08-28
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2025-08-29
2025-08-28
Health
F0940
Develop, implement, and/or maintain an effective training program for all new and existing staff members.
E
2025-09-30
2025-06-06
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
J
2025-06-07
2025-06-06
Health · complaint
F0607
Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft.
K
2025-06-07
2025-06-06
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
K
2025-06-07
2024-07-12
Health
F0565
Honor the resident's right to organize and participate in resident/family groups in the facility.
E
2024-08-05
2024-07-12
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2024-07-31
2023-11-16
Health · complaint
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
E
2023-12-01
2023-11-16
Health · complaint
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2023-12-01
2023-11-16
Health · complaint
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2023-12-01
2023-11-16
Health · complaint
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2023-12-01
2023-11-16
Health · complaint
F0732
Post nurse staffing information every day.
B
2023-12-01
2023-11-16
Health · complaint
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2023-12-01
2023-11-16
Health · complaint
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2023-12-01
2023-05-24
Health
F0637
Assess the resident when there is a significant change in condition
D
2023-06-21
2023-05-24
Health
F0644
Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed.
D
2023-06-21
2023-05-24
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2023-06-21
2023-05-24
Health
F0803
Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident.
F
2023-06-21
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
18
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
DECATUR HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2017-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
DECATUR HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
—
—
2026-04-01
current
tx_hhsc_directory
FALLON, JOHN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
KIRLEY, FRANCIS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
LEE, BRIAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
NEXION HEALTH AT WICHITA FALLS, INC
—
—
2026-04-01
current
tx_hhsc_directory
NEXION HEALTH AT WICHITA FALLS, INC.
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
OSWALD, JOHN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-03-22
current
pecos_ownership
PIERCE, DANIEL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-03-16
current
pecos_ownership
RINER, MEERA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
SCROGGINS, BRIAN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2017-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
BRIAN SCROGGINS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
100%
2017-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRIAN LEE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DANIEL PIERCE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-03-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
FRANCIS KIRLEY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN FALLON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN OSWALD
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-03-22
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MEERA RINER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
3
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$24,442
—
—
—
—
0
—
2023-12-31
$15,719
—
—
—
—
0
—
2022-12-31
$150,172
—
—
—
—
0
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
33
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 48485
acs median gross
0
$796
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48485
fmr
0
$831
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48485
acs median gross
1
$822
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48485
fmr
1
$925
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48485
acs median gross
2
$981
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48485
fmr
2
$1,136
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48485
acs median gross
3
$1,265
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48485
fmr
3
$1,553
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48485
acs median gross
4
$1,466
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48485
fmr
4
$1,759
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48485
acs median gross
5
$1,113
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48485
acs median gross
$1,006
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48485
acs recent mover gross
$1,183
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 76302
acs median gross
1
$788
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 76302
acs median gross
2
$940
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 76302
acs median gross
3
$1,226
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 76302
acs median gross
$962
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 76302
acs recent mover gross
$1,115
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 76302
payment standard 110
0
$935
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76302
payment standard 90
0
$765
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76302
safmr
0
$850
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76302
payment standard 110
1
$1,034
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76302
payment standard 90
1
$846
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76302
safmr
1
$940
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76302
payment standard 110
2
$1,276
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76302
payment standard 90
2
$1,044
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76302
safmr
2
$1,160
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76302
payment standard 110
3
$1,749
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76302
payment standard 90
3
$1,431
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76302
safmr
3
$1,590
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76302
payment standard 110
4
$1,980
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76302
payment standard 90
4
$1,620
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76302
safmr
4
$1,800
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.