Reads as: riskier than 43.9% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
25
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+26.5 vs natl
SOECHTING PAUL
37 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+26.5 vs natl
STRACK JOE
37 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+26.5 vs natl
BOWERS SEAN
37 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+26.5 vs natl
HARDIN SHERRIE
37 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+26.5 vs natl
KORENEK PATRICIA
37 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+24.6 vs natl
CISNEROS ALFRED
40 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+24.6 vs natl
KERZEE RICHARD
40 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+24.6 vs natl
WILLIG ZACHARY
82 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+24.0 vs natl
COBB TRAVIS
39 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+23.7 vs natl
THOMPSON JOHNNY
74 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+23.5 vs natl
HUGGINS LINDA
139 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+23.4 vs natl
BLAKE MALISA
137 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+23.4 vs natl
BLAKE GARY
137 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+20.2 vs natl
COOPER STEPHEN
43 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
15 chains
WILLIG ZACHARY
81 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
13 chains
HUGGINS LINDA
139 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
13 chains
BLAKE MALISA
137 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
13 chains
BLAKE GARY
137 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
49% fined
BLAKE GARY
137 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
49% fined
BLAKE MALISA
137 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
48% fined
HUGGINS LINDA
139 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
48% fined
WILLIG ZACHARY
82 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
45% fined
THOMPSON JOHNNY
74 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
41% fined
HARDIN SHERRIE
37 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
41% fined
KORENEK PATRICIA
37 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
TX median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
1.78
2.67
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.31
0.24
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
1.61
2.56
3.11
—
Weekday total
1.84
2.72
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
44.1
1.78
0.31
0.53
0.93
1.61
0.0%
2025Q3
92
44.2
1.63
0.32
0.63
0.68
1.71
0.0%
2025Q2
91
39.4
1.87
0.29
0.64
0.93
1.67
0.0%
2025Q1
90
42.3
1.93
0.28
0.59
1.05
1.75
0.0%
2024Q4
92
45.5
1.79
0.23
0.64
0.93
1.70
0.0%
2024Q3
92
41.2
2.00
0.28
0.71
1.01
1.81
0.0%
2024Q2
91
34.8
2.07
0.34
0.70
1.03
1.97
0.0%
2024Q1
91
32.4
2.23
0.34
0.74
1.14
2.10
0.0%
2023Q4
92
37.1
1.83
0.20
0.67
0.96
1.76
0.0%
2023Q3
92
34.2
1.98
0.22
0.67
1.08
1.89
0.0%
2023Q2
91
31.9
2.04
0.22
0.57
1.26
1.92
0.0%
2023Q1
90
28.7
2.19
0.21
0.70
1.27
2.12
0.0%
2022Q4
92
31.4
1.96
0.15
0.69
1.13
1.81
0.0%
2022Q3
92
29.3
2.12
0.17
0.79
1.17
2.02
0.0%
2022Q2
91
28.4
2.28
0.16
0.80
1.32
2.09
0.0%
2022Q1
90
28.3
2.14
0.16
0.78
1.20
2.02
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
3
D × 2E × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2024-10-03
Health
F0636
Assess the resident completely in a timely manner when first admitted, and then periodically, at least every 12 months.
D
2024-10-04
2024-10-03
Health
F0883
Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations.
E
2024-10-04
2023-08-02
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2023-08-02
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
37
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
BLAKE, GARY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
BLAKE, MALISA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
BOWERS, SEAN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
CISNEROS, ALFRED
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2008-02-18
current
pecos_ownership
COBB, TRAVIS
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2022-10-05
current
pecos_ownership
COOPER, STEPHEN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2022-11-11
current
pecos_ownership
HARDIN, SHERRIE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-09-04
current
pecos_ownership
HUGGINS, LINDA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
KERZEE, RICHARD
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2007-09-24
current
pecos_ownership
KORENEK, PATRICIA
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2018-05-05
current
pecos_ownership
SAN SABA I ENTERPRISES, LLC
—
—
2025-09-01
current
tx_hhsc_directory
SAN SABA I ENTERPRISES, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-16
current
pecos_ownership
SAN SABA I ENTERPRISES, LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
SOECHTING, PAUL
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-11-22
current
pecos_ownership
STRACK, JOE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2022-02-11
current
pecos_ownership
THOMPSON, JOHNNY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
WEEKS, CHRISTINA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-16
current
pecos_ownership
WEST WHARTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
—
—
2025-09-01
current
tx_hhsc_directory
WHITING, CRAIG
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
WILLIG, ZACHARY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
WEST WHARTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2022-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GARY BLAKE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
50%
2021-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MALISA BLAKE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
50%
2021-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHNNY THOMPSON
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LINDA HUGGINS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2022-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ZACHARY WILLIG
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2021-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ALFRED CISNEROS
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2008-02-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHRISTINA WEEKS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CRAIG WHITING
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOE STRACK
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2022-02-11
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PATRICIA KORENEK
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2018-05-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PAUL SOECHTING
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-11-22
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RICHARD KERZEE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2007-09-24
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SEAN BOWERS
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHERRIE HARDIN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-09-04
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEPHEN COOPER
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2022-11-11
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TRAVIS COBB
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2022-10-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
1
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2020-11-30
$394,599
—
$198,657
$195,942
—
2
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
27
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 48411
fmr
0
$781
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48411
fmr
1
$786
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48411
acs median gross
2
$973
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48411
fmr
2
$1,031
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48411
acs median gross
3
$999
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48411
fmr
3
$1,288
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48411
fmr
4
$1,517
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48411
acs median gross
$958
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48411
acs recent mover gross
$1,098
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 76877
acs median gross
2
$970
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 76877
acs median gross
3
$975
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 76877
acs median gross
$944
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 76877
payment standard 110
0
$858
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76877
payment standard 90
0
$702
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76877
safmr
0
$780
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76877
payment standard 110
1
$858
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76877
payment standard 90
1
$702
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76877
safmr
1
$780
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76877
payment standard 110
2
$1,133
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76877
payment standard 90
2
$927
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76877
safmr
2
$1,030
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76877
payment standard 110
3
$1,419
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76877
payment standard 90
3
$1,161
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76877
safmr
3
$1,290
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76877
payment standard 110
4
$1,672
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76877
payment standard 90
4
$1,368
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76877
safmr
4
$1,520
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.