6461 EAST BAYWOOD AVENUE, MESA, AZ 85206 · CCN 035071 · chain THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
Composite
26.4 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
160
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 26.4% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
4
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
17 chains
BURNAM SOON
335 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
17 chains
KEETCH CHAD
283 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
12 chains
THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
123 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
11 chains
STANDARD BEARER HEALTHCARE OP LP
83 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later lease_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
AZ median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.16
3.53
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.35
0.43
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.93
3.35
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.25
3.62
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
154.4
3.16
0.35
1.08
1.73
2.93
0.0%
2025Q3
92
154.4
3.10
0.34
1.10
1.66
2.86
0.0%
2025Q2
91
152.8
3.16
0.38
1.12
1.66
2.84
0.0%
2025Q1
90
153.8
3.06
0.40
1.06
1.59
2.78
0.0%
2024Q4
92
148.3
3.13
0.44
1.08
1.62
2.93
0.0%
2024Q3
92
149.6
3.11
0.46
1.09
1.56
2.74
0.0%
2024Q2
91
147.0
2.97
0.47
1.11
1.40
2.41
0.0%
2024Q1
91
150.8
2.83
0.36
1.15
1.32
2.48
0.0%
2023Q4
92
138.9
2.92
0.38
1.07
1.47
2.47
0.0%
2023Q3
92
138.9
2.69
0.40
1.04
1.25
2.21
0.1%
2023Q2
91
140.1
2.59
0.41
1.01
1.17
2.10
0.0%
2023Q1
90
141.2
2.51
0.37
0.95
1.19
2.21
0.3%
2022Q4
92
136.4
2.72
0.37
0.97
1.38
2.39
0.1%
2022Q3
92
134.2
2.77
0.50
0.91
1.36
2.39
0.0%
2022Q2
91
133.8
2.72
0.48
0.90
1.34
2.33
0.0%
2022Q1
90
124.7
2.54
0.45
0.96
1.13
2.23
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
21
D × 19E × 2
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-02-20
Health · complaint
F0607
Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft.
D
2026-04-03
2026-02-20
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2026-04-03
2026-02-20
Health · complaint
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2026-04-03
2025-08-25
Health · complaint
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2025-09-24
2025-08-20
Health · complaint
F0726
Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being.
D
2025-09-19
2025-05-16
Health · complaint
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2025-06-30
2024-01-18
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2024-03-03
2023-11-17
Health · complaint
F0583
Keep residents' personal and medical records private and confidential.
D
2024-01-01
2023-11-17
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2024-01-01
2023-11-17
Health · complaint
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2024-01-01
2023-11-17
Health · complaint
F0757
Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs.
D
2024-01-01
2023-11-17
Health · complaint
F0791
Provide or obtain dental services for each resident.
D
2024-01-01
2023-11-17
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2024-01-01
2022-09-16
Health
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2022-10-31
2022-09-16
Health
F0688
Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason.
D
2022-10-31
2021-04-02
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2021-05-14
2021-04-02
Health
F0553
Allow resident to participate in the development and implementation of his or her person-centered plan of care.
E
2021-05-14
2021-04-02
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
E
2021-05-14
2021-04-02
Health
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
D
2021-05-14
2021-04-02
Health
F0694
Provide for the safe, appropriate administration of IV fluids for a resident when needed.
D
2021-05-14
2021-04-02
Health
F0881
Implement a program that monitors antibiotic use.
D
2021-05-14
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
25
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
BANDERA HEALTHCARE LLC
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2019-08-14
current
pecos_ownership
BAYWOOD HEALTH HOLDINGS LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
BAYWOOD HEALTH HOLDINGS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
BAYWOOD HEALTH HOLDINGS LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
BURNAM, SOON
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2019-08-14
current
pecos_ownership
GANDE, LALITH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
KEETCH, CHAD
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2011-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
MONKS, CHANDLER
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
PETERSON, FORREST
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2019-08-14
current
pecos_ownership
PORT, BARRY
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-12-16
current
pecos_ownership
STANDARD BEARER HEALTHCARE OP LP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2006-01-30
current
pecos_ownership
WAGNER, CLAYTON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-09
current
pecos_ownership
WAGNER, CLAYTON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
CHANDLER MONKS
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2024-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CLAYTON WAGNER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
0%
2019-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
FORREST PETERSON
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2019-08-14
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SOON BURNAM
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2019-08-14
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BAYWOOD HEALTH HOLDINGS LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2019-12-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
BAYWOOD HEALTH HOLDINGS LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
BAYWOOD HEALTH HOLDINGS LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
CHAD KEETCH
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2011-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CLAYTON WAGNER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LALITH GANDE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$2,609,185
—
$1,477,909
—
—
6
propco
2023-12-31
$2,186,540
—
$1,151,534
—
$45,665
6
propco
2022-12-31
$2,050,691
—
$1,205,358
—
—
6
propco
2021-12-31
$1,886,191
—
$970,189
—
—
6
propco
2020-12-31
$1,699,048
—
$946,678
—
$240
6
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 04013
acs median gross
0
$1,383
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04013
fmr
0
$1,457
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 04013
acs median gross
1
$1,453
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04013
fmr
1
$1,583
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 04013
acs median gross
2
$1,698
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04013
fmr
2
$1,839
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 04013
acs median gross
3
$2,027
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04013
fmr
3
$2,452
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 04013
acs median gross
4
$2,312
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04013
fmr
4
$2,720
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 04013
acs median gross
5
$2,632
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04013
acs median gross
$1,708
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04013
acs recent mover gross
$1,867
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85206
acs median gross
0
$1,845
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85206
acs median gross
1
$1,706
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85206
acs median gross
2
$1,785
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85206
acs median gross
3
$2,064
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85206
acs median gross
4
$2,093
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85206
acs median gross
5
$2,764
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85206
acs median gross
$1,818
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85206
acs recent mover gross
$1,992
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 85206
payment standard 110
0
$1,738
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85206
payment standard 90
0
$1,422
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85206
safmr
0
$1,580
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85206
payment standard 110
1
$1,881
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85206
payment standard 90
1
$1,539
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85206
safmr
1
$1,710
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85206
payment standard 110
2
$2,189
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85206
payment standard 90
2
$1,791
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85206
safmr
2
$1,990
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85206
payment standard 110
3
$2,915
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85206
payment standard 90
3
$2,385
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85206
safmr
3
$2,650
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85206
payment standard 110
4
$3,234
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85206
payment standard 90
4
$2,646
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85206
safmr
4
$2,940
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.