Reads as: riskier than 60.6% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
TX median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.45
2.67
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.32
0.24
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.39
2.56
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.47
2.72
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
82.8
2.45
0.32
0.68
1.45
2.39
0.0%
2025Q3
92
83.8
2.54
0.33
0.67
1.54
2.46
2.3%
2025Q2
91
87.8
2.50
0.32
0.64
1.53
2.38
5.6%
2025Q1
90
81.7
2.59
0.36
0.66
1.56
2.48
1.4%
2024Q4
92
82.8
2.65
0.49
0.55
1.61
2.62
0.4%
2024Q3
92
83.8
2.58
0.43
0.56
1.59
2.51
0.3%
2024Q2
91
84.7
2.51
0.38
0.64
1.49
2.43
7.2%
2024Q1
91
83.8
2.54
0.41
0.63
1.51
2.44
25.3%
2023Q4
92
87.3
2.49
0.33
0.64
1.52
2.31
22.5%
2023Q3
92
87.6
2.61
0.34
0.62
1.65
2.42
26.6%
2023Q2
91
84.3
2.35
0.27
0.55
1.52
2.04
19.0%
2023Q1
90
81.3
2.28
0.31
0.59
1.38
2.00
9.5%
2022Q4
92
84.9
1.98
0.25
0.56
1.17
1.94
10.3%
2022Q3
92
84.7
2.15
0.26
0.61
1.28
1.98
10.5%
2022Q2
91
77.2
2.12
0.26
0.63
1.24
2.01
19.3%
2022Q1
90
75.2
2.23
0.36
0.60
1.27
1.99
4.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
J
2025-07-31
2025-07-02
Health · complaint
F0636
Assess the resident completely in a timely manner when first admitted, and then periodically, at least every 12 months.
D
2025-08-10
2025-07-02
Health · complaint
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2025-08-10
2025-07-02
Health · complaint
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2025-08-10
2025-07-02
Health · complaint
F0687
Provide appropriate foot care.
D
2025-08-10
2025-07-02
Health · complaint
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2025-08-10
2025-07-02
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-08-10
2025-07-02
Health · complaint
F0919
Make sure that a working call system is available in each resident's bathroom and bathing area.
E
2025-08-10
2025-03-05
Health · complaint
F0558
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
E
2025-04-21
2025-03-05
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-04-21
2024-11-05
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
J
2024-12-20
2024-06-26
Health · complaint
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
E
2024-08-15
2024-06-26
Health · complaint
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
E
2024-08-15
2024-06-26
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2024-08-15
2024-06-26
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
E
2024-08-15
2024-06-26
Health · complaint
F0770
Provide timely, quality laboratory services/tests to meet the needs of residents.
E
2024-08-15
2024-06-26
Health · complaint
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2024-08-15
2024-06-26
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2024-08-15
2024-06-26
Health
F0925
Make sure there is a pest control program to prevent/deal with mice, insects, or other pests.
E
2024-08-15
2024-06-26
Health · complaint
F0940
Develop, implement, and/or maintain an effective training program for all new and existing staff members.
E
2024-08-15
2023-07-10
Health · complaint
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2023-08-10
2023-05-04
Health
F0693
Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube.
D
2023-06-20
2023-05-04
Health
F0727
Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis.
D
2023-06-20
2023-05-04
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2023-06-20
2023-05-04
Health
F0791
Provide or obtain dental services for each resident.
E
2023-06-20
2023-05-04
Health
F0804
Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature.
E
2023-06-20
2023-05-04
Health
F0925
Make sure there is a pest control program to prevent/deal with mice, insects, or other pests.
D
2023-06-20
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
17
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
STEPHENS MEMORIAL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2017-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
JAMAL, SYED
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
NIKOI, MABEL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2020-01-06
current
pecos_ownership
NIKOI, MABEL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
PMG OPCO CEDAR HILL LLC
—
—
2026-04-01
current
tx_hhsc_directory
SPEER, GENA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
STEPHENS MEMORIAL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
—
—
2026-04-01
current
tx_hhsc_directory
BRIAN ROLAND
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
100%
2021-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MABEL NIKOI
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
100%
2020-01-06
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SOUTHWEST LTC CEDAR HILL LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
100%
2017-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KARL SIMMONS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
15%
2017-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TODD TIDWELL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
15%
2013-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRUCE CURRY
OTHER
0%
2018-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GREGG GOODALL
OTHER
0%
2020-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN ECHOLS
OTHER
0%
2017-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KAYLEE CURTIS
OTHER
0%
2020-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WADE TOOMBS
OTHER
0%
2017-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 48113
acs median gross
0
$1,385
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48113
fmr
0
$1,582
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48113
acs median gross
1
$1,400
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48113
fmr
1
$1,648
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48113
acs median gross
2
$1,638
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48113
fmr
2
$1,931
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48113
acs median gross
3
$1,823
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48113
fmr
3
$2,431
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48113
acs median gross
4
$2,241
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48113
fmr
4
$3,091
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48113
acs median gross
5
$2,432
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48113
acs median gross
$1,565
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48113
acs recent mover gross
$1,745
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 75104
acs median gross
0
$1,416
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 75104
acs median gross
1
$1,657
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 75104
acs median gross
2
$1,723
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 75104
acs median gross
3
$2,150
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 75104
acs median gross
4
$2,547
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 75104
acs median gross
5
$2,798
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 75104
acs median gross
$1,980
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 75104
acs recent mover gross
$1,840
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 75104
payment standard 110
0
$2,101
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75104
payment standard 90
0
$1,719
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75104
safmr
0
$1,910
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75104
payment standard 110
1
$2,189
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75104
payment standard 90
1
$1,791
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75104
safmr
1
$1,990
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75104
payment standard 110
2
$2,563
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75104
payment standard 90
2
$2,097
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75104
safmr
2
$2,330
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75104
payment standard 110
3
$3,223
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75104
payment standard 90
3
$2,637
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75104
safmr
3
$2,930
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75104
payment standard 110
4
$4,103
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75104
payment standard 90
4
$3,357
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75104
safmr
4
$3,730
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.