Reads as: riskier than 90.7% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
47 chains
FORVIS MAZARS LLP
251 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
MO median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.28
2.41
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.34
0.25
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.17
2.24
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.32
2.49
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
68.4
2.28
0.34
0.98
0.96
2.17
0.0%
2025Q3
92
63.2
2.01
0.25
0.81
0.94
1.79
0.0%
2025Q2
91
65.0
1.95
0.20
0.91
0.84
1.71
0.0%
2025Q1
90
72.2
1.84
0.23
0.80
0.81
1.67
0.0%
2024Q4
92
71.0
1.82
0.28
0.72
0.81
1.65
0.0%
2024Q3
92
67.9
1.75
0.27
0.75
0.73
1.68
0.0%
2024Q2
91
69.6
1.72
0.18
0.82
0.72
1.64
0.0%
2024Q1
91
68.9
1.40
0.20
0.74
0.45
1.38
0.0%
2023Q4
92
67.9
1.18
0.07
0.57
0.53
1.17
0.0%
2023Q3
92
62.7
1.40
0.17
0.76
0.47
1.31
0.0%
2023Q2
91
68.2
1.39
0.12
0.82
0.45
1.32
0.2%
2023Q1
90
66.7
1.42
0.05
0.75
0.62
1.38
0.2%
2022Q4
92
64.2
1.55
0.11
0.68
0.77
1.38
0.1%
2022Q3
92
65.6
1.49
0.06
0.78
0.65
1.49
0.0%
2022Q2
91
61.9
1.95
0.14
0.90
0.91
1.82
0.0%
2022Q1
90
66.1
1.88
0.09
0.81
0.97
1.73
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Honor the resident's right to and the facility must promote and facilitate resident self-determination through support of resident choice.
E
2025-04-14
2025-03-26
Health · complaint
F0602
Protect each resident from the wrongful use of the resident's belongings or money.
D
2025-04-14
2025-02-10
Health · complaint
F0561
Honor the resident's right to and the facility must promote and facilitate resident self-determination through support of resident choice.
E
2025-04-14
2025-02-10
Health · complaint
F0602
Protect each resident from the wrongful use of the resident's belongings or money.
D
2025-04-14
2025-02-10
Health · complaint
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2025-03-17
2025-02-10
Health · complaint
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
J
2025-03-17
2025-02-10
Health · complaint
F0843
Have an agreement with at least one or more hospitals certified by Medicare or Medicaid to make sure residents can be moved quickly to the hospital when they need medical care.
F
2025-03-17
2024-09-17
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2024-10-20
2024-09-05
Health
F0585
Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances.
E
2024-10-20
2024-09-05
Health
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
D
2024-10-20
2024-09-05
Health
F0644
Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed.
D
2024-10-20
2024-09-05
Health
F0655
Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted
D
2024-10-20
2024-09-05
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
E
2024-10-20
2024-09-05
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2024-10-20
2024-09-05
Health
F0697
Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services.
E
2024-10-20
2024-09-05
Health
F0698
Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services.
D
2024-10-20
2024-09-05
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
E
2024-10-20
2024-09-05
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
E
2024-10-20
2023-01-06
Health
F0645
PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities
D
2023-02-05
2023-01-06
Health
F0655
Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted
D
2023-02-05
2023-01-06
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2023-02-05
2023-01-06
Health
F0698
Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services.
D
2023-02-05
2023-01-06
Health
F0728
Ensure that nurse aides who have worked more than 4 months, are trained and competent; and nurse aides who have worked less than 4 months are enrolled in appropriate training.
E
2023-02-05
2019-09-13
Health
F0582
Give residents notice of Medicaid/Medicare coverage and potential liability for services not covered.
D
2019-10-20
2019-09-13
Health
F0604
Ensure that each resident is free from the use of physical restraints, unless needed for medical treatment.
D
2019-10-20
2019-09-13
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2019-10-20
2019-09-13
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2019-10-20
2019-09-13
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2019-10-20
2019-09-13
Health
F0697
Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services.
E
2019-10-20
2019-09-13
Health
F0710
Obtain a doctor's order to admit a resident and ensure the resident is under a doctor's care.
D
2019-10-20
2019-09-13
Health
F0790
Provide routine and 24-hour emergency dental care for each resident.
D
2019-10-20
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
31
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
CEO FINANCIAL SERVICES INC.
Other (financial or non-financial)
100%
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
CEO FINANCIAL SERVICES INC.
Other (financial or non-financial)
100%
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
CLINTON EXEMPT TRUST
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2004-04-23
current
pecos_ownership
CLINTON RE LLC
Other (financial or non-financial)
100%
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
CLINTON RE LLC
Other (financial or non-financial)
100%
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
AGH1 LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2016-12-02
current
pecos_ownership
AGH1 LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-25
current
pecos_ownership
BEAIRD, TODD
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2022-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
BEDELL, BRYAN
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-28
current
pecos_ownership
BEDELL, DONALD
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2004-04-23
current
pecos_ownership
CLINTON RE LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2013-03-12
current
pecos_ownership
DCB REAL ESTATE PARTNERSHIP LP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2013-03-12
current
pecos_ownership
FG LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2016-12-02
current
pecos_ownership
FORVIS MAZARS LLP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-08-16
current
pecos_ownership
FOSTER, GEORGANN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-12-29
current
pecos_ownership
MID STATES INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2014-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
SNELL, MARK
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2001-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
SOVEREIGN HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-06
current
pecos_ownership
SOVEREIGN HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-04-23
current
pecos_ownership
VAN DE VEN LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2000-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
CEO FINANCIAL SERVICES INC
Other (financial or non-financial)
100%
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
CEO FINANCIAL SERVICES INC.
Other (financial or non-financial)
100%
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
CEO FINANCIAL SERVICES INC.
Other (financial or non-financial)
100%
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
CLINTON RE LLC
Other (financial or non-financial)
100%
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
CLINTON RE LLC
Other (financial or non-financial)
100%
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
CLINTON RE LLC
Other (financial or non-financial)
100%
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
DONALD BEDELL
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2004-04-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MID STATES INC
Other (financial or non-financial)
100%
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
TODD BEAIRD
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2022-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GEORGANN FOSTER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-12-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARK SNELL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2001-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$1,677,312
$223,923
—
$675,260
$219,854
9
propco
2023-12-31
$1,247,157
$199,435
—
$507,976
$94,736
9
propco
2022-12-31
$1,182,833
$205,525
—
$432,036
$129,394
10
propco
2021-12-31
$1,370,154
$222,735
—
$606,249
$138,193
9
propco
2020-12-31
$1,169,421
$258,494
—
$468,328
$138,089
12
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
34
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 29083
acs median gross
0
$434
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29083
fmr
0
$652
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29083
acs median gross
1
$466
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29083
fmr
1
$677
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29083
acs median gross
2
$757
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29083
fmr
2
$888
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29083
acs median gross
3
$1,025
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29083
fmr
3
$1,171
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29083
acs median gross
4
$1,138
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29083
fmr
4
$1,176
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29083
acs median gross
5
$879
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29083
acs median gross
$768
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29083
acs recent mover gross
$1,050
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 64735
acs median gross
1
$466
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 64735
acs median gross
2
$723
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 64735
acs median gross
3
$1,058
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 64735
acs median gross
4
$1,784
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 64735
acs median gross
$756
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 64735
acs recent mover gross
$1,220
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 64735
payment standard 110
0
$715
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64735
payment standard 90
0
$585
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64735
safmr
0
$650
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64735
payment standard 110
1
$748
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64735
payment standard 90
1
$612
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64735
safmr
1
$680
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64735
payment standard 110
2
$979
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64735
payment standard 90
2
$801
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64735
safmr
2
$890
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64735
payment standard 110
3
$1,287
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64735
payment standard 90
3
$1,053
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64735
safmr
3
$1,170
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64735
payment standard 110
4
$1,298
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64735
payment standard 90
4
$1,062
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64735
safmr
4
$1,180
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.