Reads as: riskier than 86.2% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
3
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Buyer assembling a chain (5+ takeovers/24mo)
6 facilities
WINNIE-STOWELL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
6 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
46% fined
MURRELL EDWARD
76 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
42% fined
WINNIE STOWELL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
19 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
TX median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.09
2.67
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.39
0.24
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.73
2.56
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.23
2.72
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
91.8
3.09
0.39
0.89
1.81
2.73
0.0%
2025Q3
92
92.1
3.22
0.44
0.86
1.93
2.85
0.0%
2025Q2
91
89.2
3.23
0.47
0.89
1.87
2.77
0.0%
2025Q1
90
84.5
2.96
0.38
0.91
1.68
2.58
0.0%
2024Q4
92
84.9
2.98
0.47
0.81
1.70
2.65
0.0%
2024Q3
92
93.4
2.99
0.49
0.78
1.73
2.73
0.0%
2024Q2
91
93.7
2.97
0.46
0.83
1.68
2.74
0.0%
2024Q1
91
91.6
3.04
0.44
0.88
1.73
2.69
0.0%
2023Q4
92
93.4
2.98
0.34
0.93
1.71
2.67
0.0%
2023Q3
92
92.2
3.05
0.41
0.88
1.76
2.70
0.0%
2023Q2
91
86.9
3.33
0.51
0.93
1.89
2.88
0.0%
2023Q1
90
89.8
3.21
0.49
0.92
1.80
2.76
0.0%
2022Q4
92
86.4
3.23
0.50
0.87
1.85
2.88
0.0%
2022Q3
92
87.5
3.22
0.44
0.96
1.82
2.85
0.0%
2022Q2
91
87.6
3.43
0.53
0.96
1.94
3.08
0.0%
2022Q1
90
82.8
3.50
0.62
0.97
1.91
3.04
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2026-02-03
2025-01-08
Health
F0578
Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.
D
2025-02-03
2025-01-08
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2025-02-03
2025-01-08
Health
F0726
Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being.
D
2025-02-03
2025-01-08
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2025-02-03
2025-01-08
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-02-03
2024-09-06
Health · complaint
F0607
Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft.
D
2024-09-30
2024-05-28
Health · complaint
F0839
Employ staff that are licensed, certified, or registered in accordance with state laws.
D
2024-06-07
2024-05-14
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2024-05-31
2023-12-30
Health · complaint
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2024-01-03
2023-12-30
Health · complaint
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2024-01-03
2023-10-06
Health · complaint
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2023-11-10
2023-10-06
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2023-11-10
2023-10-06
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2023-11-10
2023-10-06
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2023-11-10
2023-10-06
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2023-11-10
2023-10-06
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
F
2023-11-10
2022-07-28
Health
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2022-08-12
2022-07-28
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2022-08-15
2022-07-28
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
D
2022-09-02
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
27
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
CULP, ROLAND
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
DASPIT, LAURENCE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
HMG PARK MANOR OF MISSION, LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
HMG PARK MANOR OF MISSION, LLC
—
—
2024-10-01
current
tx_hhsc_directory
MURRELL, EDWARD
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2012-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
PICO, ANA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-01-04
current
pecos_ownership
PRINCE, DEREK
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
ROLLO, JEFFERY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2012-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
STRAMECKI, ANTHONY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2016-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
VRATIS, KACEY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
VRATIS, KACEY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2016-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
WAY, GEORGE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2013-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
WINNIE STOWELL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
—
—
2024-10-01
current
tx_hhsc_directory
WINNIE-STOWELL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
ANTHONY STRAMECKI
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
100%
2016-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
EDWARD MURRELL
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2012-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GEORGE WAY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
100%
2013-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
HMG PARTNERS III LLC
OTHER
100%
2021-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JEFFERY ROLLO
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
100%
2012-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KACEY VRATIS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
100%
2016-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KACEY VRATIS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
100%
2020-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NEFI GUZMAN
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
100%
2021-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DEREK PRINCE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
33%
2021-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LAURENCE DASPIT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
33%
2021-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROLAND CULP
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
33%
2021-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANA PICO
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
25%
2021-01-04
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHERRIE NORRIS
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
0%
2021-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
1
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2020-12-31
$804,764
—
—
$210,189
$61,464
2
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 48215
acs median gross
0
$837
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48215
fmr
0
$842
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48215
acs median gross
1
$716
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48215
fmr
1
$847
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48215
acs median gross
2
$956
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48215
fmr
2
$1,060
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48215
acs median gross
3
$1,138
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48215
fmr
3
$1,376
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48215
acs median gross
4
$1,310
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48215
fmr
4
$1,522
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48215
acs median gross
5
$1,409
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48215
acs median gross
$957
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48215
acs recent mover gross
$996
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 78572
acs median gross
0
$446
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 78572
acs median gross
1
$529
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 78572
acs median gross
2
$885
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 78572
acs median gross
3
$1,215
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 78572
acs median gross
4
$940
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 78572
acs median gross
$902
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 78572
acs recent mover gross
$963
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 78572
payment standard 110
0
$913
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78572
payment standard 90
0
$747
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78572
safmr
0
$830
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78572
payment standard 110
1
$924
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78572
payment standard 90
1
$756
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78572
safmr
1
$840
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78572
payment standard 110
2
$1,155
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78572
payment standard 90
2
$945
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78572
safmr
2
$1,050
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78572
payment standard 110
3
$1,496
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78572
payment standard 90
3
$1,224
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78572
safmr
3
$1,360
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78572
payment standard 110
4
$1,661
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78572
payment standard 90
4
$1,359
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78572
safmr
4
$1,510
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.