1131 SOUTH MABELLE AVENUE, FERGUS FALLS, MN 56537 · CCN 245463
Composite
18.4 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
105
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 18.4% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
15 chains
AEGIS THERAPIES INC
32 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
MN median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
4.04
3.49
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.87
0.65
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.71
3.32
3.11
—
Weekday total
4.16
3.59
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
91.1
4.04
0.87
0.41
2.76
3.71
0.0%
2025Q3
92
89.1
4.00
0.86
0.32
2.82
3.72
0.0%
2025Q2
91
89.3
3.98
0.81
0.40
2.77
3.75
0.0%
2025Q1
90
91.6
3.79
0.69
0.44
2.66
3.51
0.0%
2024Q4
92
98.7
3.48
0.57
0.39
2.53
3.29
0.0%
2024Q3
92
98.3
3.23
0.55
0.28
2.39
3.01
0.0%
2024Q2
91
89.6
3.77
0.69
0.33
2.75
3.47
0.0%
2024Q1
91
85.9
3.28
0.68
0.41
2.18
3.17
0.0%
2023Q4
92
83.9
3.23
0.71
0.33
2.19
3.04
5.8%
2023Q3
92
86.1
3.15
0.68
0.25
2.22
3.01
5.9%
2023Q2
91
84.1
3.53
0.77
0.19
2.57
3.20
5.5%
2023Q1
90
85.0
2.99
0.85
0.37
1.78
2.43
0.0%
2022Q4
92
84.6
3.09
0.82
0.40
1.87
2.35
0.0%
2022Q3
92
83.1
3.34
0.75
0.43
2.16
2.71
0.0%
2022Q2
91
80.7
3.35
0.76
0.46
2.13
2.77
0.0%
2022Q1
90
80.3
2.82
0.73
0.45
1.63
2.31
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
22
C × 1D × 19E × 2
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-08-06
Health
F0554
Allow residents to self-administer drugs if determined clinically appropriate.
D
2025-09-03
2025-08-06
Health
F0604
Ensure that each resident is free from the use of physical restraints, unless needed for medical treatment.
D
2025-09-03
2025-08-06
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2025-09-08
2025-08-06
Health
F0688
Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason.
D
2025-09-03
2025-08-06
Health
F0732
Post nurse staffing information every day.
C
2025-09-03
2025-08-06
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2025-09-03
2025-08-06
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2025-09-03
2025-05-27
Health · complaint
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2025-06-20
2025-05-27
Health · complaint
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2025-06-20
2025-05-27
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2025-06-20
2025-05-16
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2025-06-07
2024-07-24
Health
F0554
Allow residents to self-administer drugs if determined clinically appropriate.
D
2024-08-16
2024-07-24
Health
F0676
Ensure residents do not lose the ability to perform activities of daily living unless there is a medical reason.
D
2024-08-16
2024-07-24
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2024-08-16
2024-01-09
Health · complaint
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
D
2024-01-30
2023-09-13
Health
F0554
Allow residents to self-administer drugs if determined clinically appropriate.
D
2023-10-05
2023-09-13
Health
F0655
Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted
D
2023-10-05
2023-09-13
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2023-10-05
2023-09-13
Health · complaint
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2023-10-05
2023-09-13
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2023-10-05
2023-09-13
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2023-10-05
2023-09-13
Health
F0883
Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations.
D
2023-10-05
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
36
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
ACKERSON, JEFF
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
AEGIS THERAPIES, INC.
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
BRENNA, LOWELL
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2021-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
BUSHINGER, BRAD
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
1996-01-02
current
pecos_ownership
DEMUTH, SUZANNE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2020-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
ELLIG, JOE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2020-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
FREEMAN, JANET
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2019-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
HOCUM, APRIL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
HUNTER, KATIE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2012-10-24
current
pecos_ownership
JOHNSON, KARI
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2025-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
JOHNSON, NATHAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2009-11-03
current
pecos_ownership
LACEY, TYLER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
LEE, LINDA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
—
current
pecos_ownership
MELLUM, KAREN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2025-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
MONKE, DEAN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2020-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
NELSON, LORI
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2023-02-07
current
pecos_ownership
NOWACKI, JULIA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-04-08
current
pecos_ownership
PEDERSON, ELIZABETH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-09-17
current
pecos_ownership
SCHMIDT, HOLLY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-07-02
current
pecos_ownership
SETHRE, JOHN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2020-04-02
current
pecos_ownership
SILLERUD, BRANDI
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2018-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
WALZ, CATHERINE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-02-06
current
pecos_ownership
WATKINS, SARA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2009-11-02
current
pecos_ownership
NATHAN JOHNSON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
100%
2018-05-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BONNIE DENZEL
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2014-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRAD TOLLERSON
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2019-04-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CINDY KACER
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2009-11-26
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DEAN MONKE
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2020-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JANET FREEMAN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2019-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOE ELLIG
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2020-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN SETHRE
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2020-04-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARGARET UNDERWOOD
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2019-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NATHAN JOHNSON
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2009-11-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NICKI COOK
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2022-05-25
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SARA WATKINS
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2015-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SUZANNE DEMUTH
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2020-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 27111
acs median gross
0
$549
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27111
fmr
0
$678
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 27111
acs median gross
1
$606
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27111
fmr
1
$749
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 27111
acs median gross
2
$918
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27111
fmr
2
$983
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 27111
acs median gross
3
$1,157
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27111
fmr
3
$1,367
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 27111
acs median gross
4
$975
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27111
fmr
4
$1,432
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 27111
acs median gross
5
$905
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27111
acs median gross
$868
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27111
acs recent mover gross
$925
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 56537
acs median gross
0
$662
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 56537
acs median gross
1
$613
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 56537
acs median gross
2
$938
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 56537
acs median gross
3
$1,199
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 56537
acs median gross
4
$856
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 56537
acs median gross
$910
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 56537
acs recent mover gross
$957
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 56537
payment standard 110
0
$748
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56537
payment standard 90
0
$612
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56537
safmr
0
$680
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56537
payment standard 110
1
$825
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56537
payment standard 90
1
$675
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56537
safmr
1
$750
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56537
payment standard 110
2
$1,089
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56537
payment standard 90
2
$891
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56537
safmr
2
$990
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56537
payment standard 110
3
$1,518
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56537
payment standard 90
3
$1,242
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56537
safmr
3
$1,380
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56537
payment standard 110
4
$1,584
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56537
payment standard 90
4
$1,296
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56537
safmr
4
$1,440
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.