Composite
71.4 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| regulatory risk | 92.6 | 90.3 | 0.30 | 0.1714 | 15.87 | in index |
| financial risk | 85.9 | 72.6 | 0.30 | 0.1714 | 14.73 | in index |
| state reg risk | 63.7 | 15.0 | 0.30 | 0.1714 | 10.92 | in index |
| staffing risk | 73.6 | 73.6 | 0.25 | 0.1429 | 10.51 | in index |
| chow risk | 43.6 | 44.8 | 0.15 | 0.0857 | 3.74 | in index |
| lease risk | 9.4 | 32.6 | 0.15 | 0.0857 | 0.81 | in index |
| billing conduct | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.30 | 0.1714 | 0.00 | in index |
| ownership opacity | 1.6 | 15.0 | excluded |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 0.0 | A | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 25.0 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 48.5 | C | v0.1-txhhsc | default · in composite | Texas licence reissue timing as an ownership-transfer proxy. |
| chow risk | 60.9 | C | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 72.6 | D | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| lease risk | 32.6 | B | v0.5 | default · in composite | |
| ownership opacity | 15.0 | A | v0.1-txhhsc | default · in composite | Texas HHSC directory ownership structure: chain size, absentee owner, management company, entity form, owner closure history. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 0.2 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 90.3 | F | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 73.6 | D | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| state reg risk | 15.0 | A | v0.5 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 95.8 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 75.8 | D | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 60.2 | C | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 74.5 | D | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 90.2 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 90.2 | F | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 73.6 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 73.6 | D | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -1.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 5.74 | -1.29 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Occupancy | 0.51 | +0.53 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | -0.40 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 16.00 | +0.22 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 16.00 | -1.54 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | +1.20 | |
| Occupancy | 0.51 | +0.99 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 10.07 | -0.56 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -0.28 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 5.74 | -0.21 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | TX median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 2.92 | 2.67 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.31 | 0.24 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 2.44 | 2.56 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 3.12 | 2.72 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 30.8 | 2.92 | 0.31 | 1.14 | 1.48 | 2.44 | 8.9% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 30.5 | 2.72 | 0.04 | 1.23 | 1.45 | 2.26 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 31.7 | 2.77 | 0.06 | 1.11 | 1.60 | 2.48 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 29.9 | 2.97 | 0.12 | 1.14 | 1.71 | 2.58 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 30.7 | 2.60 | 0.08 | 1.07 | 1.45 | 2.25 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 29.9 | 2.81 | 0.06 | 1.15 | 1.60 | 2.29 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 31.9 | 2.76 | 0.07 | 1.11 | 1.59 | 2.19 | 1.6% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 35.3 | 2.52 | 0.12 | 0.90 | 1.50 | 2.17 | 8.6% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 35.7 | 2.25 | 0.08 | 0.81 | 1.36 | 2.09 | 8.2% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 33.5 | 2.72 | 0.13 | 0.93 | 1.67 | 2.17 | 4.6% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 34.5 | 2.55 | 0.03 | 0.91 | 1.60 | 2.16 | 5.3% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 32.0 | 2.67 | 0.00 | 0.87 | 1.79 | 2.06 | 3.6% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 33.4 | 2.24 | 0.04 | 0.62 | 1.58 | 1.91 | 5.2% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 31.4 | 2.53 | 0.08 | 0.70 | 1.75 | 2.14 | 1.1% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 26.3 | 3.12 | 0.00 | 1.07 | 2.04 | 2.60 | 0.5% |
| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-17 | Fine | $23,580 | CMS provider data |
| 2024-05-06 | Fine | $14,668 | CMS provider data |
| 2024-03-23 | Fine | $101,719 | CMS provider data |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-17 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2025-09-18 |
| 2025-09-17 | Health | F0578 | Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive. | D | 2025-09-18 |
| 2025-09-17 | Health | F0580 | Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident. | D | 2025-09-18 |
| 2025-09-17 | Health | F0605 | Prevent the use of unnecessary psychotropic medications or use medications that may restrain a resident's ability to function. | E | 2025-09-18 |
| 2025-09-17 | Health | F0641 | Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment. | D | 2025-09-19 |
| 2025-09-17 | Health | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | D | 2025-09-19 |
| 2025-09-17 | Health | F0697 | Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services. | G | 2025-09-18 |
| 2025-09-17 | Health | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | D | 2025-09-18 |
| 2025-09-17 | Health | F0757 | Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs. | E | 2025-09-18 |
| 2025-09-17 | Health | F0804 | Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature. | E | 2025-09-18 |
| 2025-09-17 | Health | F0805 | Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food prepared in a form designed to meet individual needs. | E | 2025-09-18 |
| 2025-09-17 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2025-09-18 |
| 2025-09-17 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2025-09-19 |
| 2025-09-17 | Health | F0908 | Keep all essential equipment working safely. | D | 2025-09-18 |
| 2025-09-17 | Health | F0921 | Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public. | D | 2025-09-18 |
| 2025-08-26 | Health · complaint | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2025-09-11 |
| 2024-08-07 | Health | F0641 | Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment. | D | 2024-08-08 |
| 2024-08-07 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2024-08-08 |
| 2024-08-07 | Health | F0757 | Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs. | D | 2024-08-08 |
| 2024-08-07 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | F | 2024-08-08 |
| 2024-07-11 | Health · complaint | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2024-07-12 |
| 2024-05-06 | Health · complaint | F0678 | Provide basic life support, including CPR, prior to the arrival of emergency medical personnel , subject to physician orders and the resident’s advance directives. | J | 2024-05-01 |
| 2024-03-23 | Health · complaint | F0580 | Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident. | D | 2024-04-08 |
| 2024-03-23 | Health · complaint | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2024-04-08 |
| 2024-03-23 | Health · complaint | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2024-04-08 |
| 2024-03-23 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | J | 2024-03-24 |
| 2024-03-23 | Health · complaint | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | K | 2024-03-24 |
| 2024-03-23 | Health · complaint | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | D | 2024-04-08 |
| 2023-11-07 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2023-11-08 |
| 2023-06-28 | Health | F0641 | Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment. | E | 2023-07-21 |
| 2023-06-28 | Health | F0791 | Provide or obtain dental services for each resident. | D | 2023-07-21 |
| 2023-06-28 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2023-07-21 |
| 2023-06-28 | Health | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | E | 2023-07-21 |
| 2023-06-28 | Health | F0908 | Keep all essential equipment working safely. | F | 2023-07-21 |
| 2023-06-28 | Health | F0921 | Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public. | E | 2023-07-21 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRUMMETT, CLAYTON | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2020-11-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| DAYTON NURSING PROPERTY LLC | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2020-11-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| DT DAYTON, LLC | — | — | 2025-02-01 | current | tx_hhsc_directory |
| HARRINGTON, RYAN | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2020-11-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| RAMIREZ, DIAMANTINA | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2021-10-25 | current | pecos_ownership |
| SINGH, IQBAL | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2024-04-25 | current | pecos_ownership |
| TRINITY HEALTHCARE, LLC | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2020-11-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| CLAYTON BRUMMETT | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2020-11-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| DIAMANTINA RAMIREZ | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2021-10-25 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| IQBAL SINGH | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2024-04-25 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| RYAN HARRINGTON | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2020-11-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close date | Price | Buyer | Seller | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-11-01 | — | DT DAYTON LLC | HERITAGE VILLA NURSING AND REHABILITATION LP | chow |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-01 | ST. ANTHONY'S CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 120 | SOUTH LIMESTONE HOSPITAL DISTRICT |
| 2025-10-01 | Avir at New Braunfels | — | — | — | 154 | 821 US HIGHWAY 81 W OPCO LLC |
| 2025-09-01 | Avir at Texarkana | — | — | — | 110 | GUADALUPE COUNTY HOSPITAL BOARD |
| 2025-09-01 | PARKS HEALTH CENTER | — | — | — | 90 | WEST COKE COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT |
| 2025-09-01 | WINDMILL VILLAGE REHABILITATION & CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 120 | FANNIN COUNTY HOSPITAL AUTHORITY |
| 2025-08-31 | Las Ventanas De Socorro | — | — | — | 126 | SOCORRO HEALTH CARE LLC |
| 2025-08-01 | Avir at Mineola | — | — | — | 115 | HOPKINS COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT |
| 2025-08-01 | Avir at Orem | — | — | — | 120 | 3730 W OREM DR OPCO LLC |
| 2025-08-01 | Avir at Courtyard | — | — | — | 120 | 7499 STANWICK DR OPCO LLC |
| 2025-08-01 | HILLSIDE MEDICAL LODGE | — | — | — | 128 | CORYELL COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL AUTHORITY |
| 2025-08-01 | Avir at Pasadena | — | — | — | 131 | 4300 VISTA RD OPCO LLC |
| 2025-07-01 | Highland Meadows | — | — | — | 120 | NOCONA HOSPITAL DISTRICT |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 48291 | acs median gross | 0 | $638 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 48291 | fmr | 0 | $1,280 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 48291 | acs median gross | 1 | $832 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 48291 | fmr | 1 | $1,323 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 48291 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,046 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 48291 | fmr | 2 | $1,573 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 48291 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,119 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 48291 | fmr | 3 | $2,116 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 48291 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,181 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 48291 | fmr | 4 | $2,639 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 48291 | acs median gross | $1,044 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 48291 | acs recent mover gross | $1,080 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 77535 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,011 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 77535 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,024 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 77535 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,299 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 77535 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,135 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 77535 | acs median gross | $1,082 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 77535 | acs recent mover gross | $1,086 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 77535 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $1,166 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 77535 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $954 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 77535 | safmr | 0 | $1,060 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 77535 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $1,199 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 77535 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $981 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 77535 | safmr | 1 | $1,090 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 77535 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,430 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 77535 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $1,170 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 77535 | safmr | 2 | $1,300 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 77535 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,925 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 77535 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,575 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 77535 | safmr | 3 | $1,750 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 77535 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $2,398 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 77535 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,962 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 77535 | safmr | 4 | $2,180 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |