Reads as: riskier than 43.8% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
64% fined
MONARCH HEALTHCARE OPERATING XII LLC
11 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
MN median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.99
3.49
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.63
0.65
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.97
3.32
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.00
3.59
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
91.5
2.99
0.63
0.60
1.76
2.97
0.5%
2025Q3
92
93.6
2.96
0.57
0.63
1.76
2.91
1.5%
2025Q2
91
92.9
3.00
0.54
0.68
1.78
2.89
1.4%
2025Q1
90
95.3
3.00
0.63
0.58
1.79
2.88
3.2%
2024Q4
92
92.5
3.04
0.63
0.61
1.80
2.91
5.5%
2024Q3
92
92.8
3.00
0.57
0.65
1.78
2.85
7.7%
2024Q2
91
92.4
2.97
0.44
0.77
1.76
2.93
7.0%
2024Q1
91
90.7
2.88
0.48
0.66
1.75
2.84
10.7%
2023Q4
92
94.5
3.02
0.52
0.65
1.85
2.99
11.1%
2023Q3
92
94.3
2.98
0.54
0.63
1.81
2.85
19.9%
2023Q2
91
93.4
2.95
0.53
0.71
1.71
2.88
27.7%
2023Q1
90
91.6
2.06
0.28
0.51
1.26
1.90
0.0%
2022Q4
92
91.5
3.10
0.63
0.72
1.75
2.99
27.0%
2022Q3
92
91.3
3.28
0.55
0.87
1.87
3.10
29.4%
2022Q2
91
94.7
3.11
0.50
0.83
1.78
2.85
21.3%
2022Q1
90
94.0
3.11
0.48
0.91
1.73
2.94
16.7%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
33
C × 1D × 28E × 2F × 2
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-06-26
Health
F0577
Allow residents to easily view the nursing home's survey results and communicate with advocate agencies.
C
2025-08-07
2025-06-26
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2025-08-07
2025-06-26
Health
F0679
Provide activities to meet all resident's needs.
D
2025-08-07
2025-06-26
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2025-08-07
2025-06-26
Health
F0688
Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason.
D
2025-08-07
2025-06-26
Health
F0697
Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services.
D
2025-08-07
2025-06-26
Health
F0699
Provide care or services that was trauma informed and/or culturally competent.
D
2025-08-07
2025-06-26
Health
F0757
Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs.
D
2025-08-07
2025-06-26
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2025-08-07
2025-06-26
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-08-07
2025-03-12
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2025-04-04
2025-03-12
Health · complaint
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2025-04-04
2025-03-12
Health · complaint
F0622
Not transfer or discharge a resident without an adequate reason; and must provide documentation and convey specific information when a resident is transferred or discharged.
D
2025-04-04
2025-03-12
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2025-04-04
2024-11-18
Health · complaint
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2024-12-04
2024-08-21
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2024-09-26
2024-08-21
Health
F0554
Allow residents to self-administer drugs if determined clinically appropriate.
D
2024-09-26
2024-08-21
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
D
2024-09-26
2024-08-21
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2024-09-26
2024-08-21
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2024-09-26
2024-08-21
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2024-09-26
2024-08-21
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2024-09-26
2024-08-21
Health
F0919
Make sure that a working call system is available in each resident's bathroom and bathing area.
D
2024-09-26
2024-05-31
Health · complaint
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2024-07-01
2024-05-31
Health · complaint
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2024-07-01
2024-03-11
Health · complaint
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2024-03-27
2023-11-27
Health · complaint
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
E
2024-01-03
2023-09-21
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2023-11-01
2023-09-21
Health
F0645
PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities
D
2023-11-01
2023-09-21
Health
F0676
Ensure residents do not lose the ability to perform activities of daily living unless there is a medical reason.
D
2023-11-01
2023-09-21
Health
F0699
Provide care or services that was trauma informed and/or culturally competent.
D
2023-11-01
2023-09-21
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2023-11-01
2023-09-21
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
F
2023-11-01
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
16
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
HALPERT, MARC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
32%
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
SPARTAN HEALTHCARE LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
32%
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
LEGUM, JOSHUA
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
26%
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
STERN, WILLIAM
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
26%
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
WBS HOLDINGS LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
26%
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
YAZOMA HOLDINGS, LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
26%
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
JAFFA, NOAM
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
16%
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
NIJ LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
16%
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
MONARCH HEALTHCARE OPERATING XII LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
MARC HALPERT
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
32%
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOSHUA LEGUM
CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE
26%
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WILLIAM STERN
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
26%
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NOAM JAFFA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
16%
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
3701 W. LUNT AVE.
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
3701 W. LUNT AVE.
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
3701 W. LUNT AVE.
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$1,254,378
—
—
—
$18,000
4
—
2023-12-31
$1,031,592
—
—
—
—
3
—
2022-12-31
$411,075
—
—
—
—
2
propco
2021-12-31
$499,589
—
—
—
—
2
propco
2020-12-31
$579,100
—
—
—
—
2
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 27053
acs median gross
0
$1,141
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27053
fmr
0
$1,242
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 27053
acs median gross
1
$1,293
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27053
fmr
1
$1,405
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 27053
acs median gross
2
$1,677
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27053
fmr
2
$1,709
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 27053
acs median gross
3
$1,963
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27053
fmr
3
$2,262
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 27053
acs median gross
4
$2,216
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27053
fmr
4
$2,531
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 27053
acs median gross
5
$1,999
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27053
acs median gross
$1,487
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27053
acs recent mover gross
$1,628
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 55423
acs median gross
0
$1,524
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 55423
acs median gross
1
$1,245
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 55423
acs median gross
2
$1,448
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 55423
acs median gross
3
$2,025
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 55423
acs median gross
4
$2,461
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 55423
acs median gross
5
$2,591
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 55423
acs median gross
$1,393
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 55423
acs recent mover gross
$1,404
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 55423
payment standard 110
0
$1,331
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55423
payment standard 90
0
$1,089
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55423
safmr
0
$1,210
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55423
payment standard 110
1
$1,496
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55423
payment standard 90
1
$1,224
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55423
safmr
1
$1,360
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55423
payment standard 110
2
$1,826
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55423
payment standard 90
2
$1,494
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55423
safmr
2
$1,660
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55423
payment standard 110
3
$2,420
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55423
payment standard 90
3
$1,980
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55423
safmr
3
$2,200
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55423
payment standard 110
4
$2,706
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55423
payment standard 90
4
$2,214
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55423
safmr
4
$2,460
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.