Reads as: riskier than 62.2% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
5
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
9 chains
FUNDAMENTAL CLINICAL AND OPERATIONAL SERVICES LLC
22 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
9 chains
FUNDAMENTAL ADMINISTRATIVE SERVICES LLC
21 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
FORMAN MURRAY
20 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
51% fined
LIBERTY COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT NO 1
35 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
51% fined
STRATTON CHARLES
35 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
TX median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.81
2.67
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.17
0.24
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.79
2.56
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.81
2.72
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
82.1
2.81
0.17
0.83
1.81
2.79
2.3%
2025Q3
92
84.7
2.82
0.18
0.80
1.84
2.80
2.1%
2025Q2
91
89.6
2.84
0.20
0.83
1.80
2.82
2.1%
2025Q1
90
91.1
2.78
0.18
0.85
1.75
2.78
1.6%
2024Q4
92
88.7
2.68
0.17
0.77
1.74
2.66
1.1%
2024Q3
92
85.3
2.77
0.21
0.80
1.76
2.81
1.0%
2024Q2
91
83.5
2.73
0.17
0.84
1.72
2.66
1.7%
2024Q1
91
84.2
2.65
0.14
0.86
1.65
2.57
2.9%
2023Q4
92
82.1
2.84
0.21
0.88
1.75
2.82
4.0%
2023Q3
92
77.6
2.69
0.17
0.87
1.64
2.68
5.1%
2023Q2
91
76.6
2.72
0.17
0.90
1.65
2.67
4.3%
2023Q1
90
80.7
2.63
0.19
0.86
1.59
2.59
12.3%
2022Q4
92
80.0
2.57
0.10
0.95
1.53
2.56
6.9%
2022Q3
92
75.0
2.77
0.04
1.10
1.63
2.75
12.7%
2022Q2
91
81.0
2.87
0.06
0.93
1.89
2.70
6.0%
2022Q1
90
82.3
2.97
0.05
1.04
1.88
2.90
9.4%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2026-05-01
2026-02-04
Health · complaint
F0627
Ensure the transfer/discharge meets the resident's needs/preferences and that the resident is prepared for a safe transfer/discharge.
D
2026-02-20
2025-06-26
Health
F0693
Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube.
D
2025-06-30
2025-06-26
Health
F0814
Dispose of garbage and refuse properly.
C
2025-06-30
2025-02-10
Health · complaint
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2025-02-11
2024-05-17
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2024-06-03
2024-05-17
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
J
2024-06-03
2024-05-03
Health · complaint
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
E
2024-05-24
2024-05-03
Health · complaint
F0644
Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed.
D
2024-05-24
2024-05-03
Health · complaint
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
E
2024-05-24
2024-05-03
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2024-05-24
2023-11-14
Health · complaint
F0919
Make sure that a working call system is available in each resident's bathroom and bathing area.
K
2023-11-29
2023-06-01
Health · complaint
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2023-06-23
2023-02-01
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2023-02-17
2023-02-01
Health
F0655
Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted
D
2023-02-17
2023-02-01
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2023-02-17
2023-02-01
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2023-02-17
2023-02-01
Health
F0694
Provide for the safe, appropriate administration of IV fluids for a resident when needed.
D
2023-02-17
2023-02-01
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
E
2023-02-17
2023-02-01
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2023-02-17
2023-02-01
Health
F0925
Make sure there is a pest control program to prevent/deal with mice, insects, or other pests.
D
2023-02-17
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
13
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
LIBERTY COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT NO.1
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2017-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
BAVARE, ARUSHA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
DUPREE, JEANNIE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-09-21
current
pecos_ownership
FORMAN, MURRAY
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-11-26
current
pecos_ownership
FUNDAMENTAL ADMINISTRATIVE SERVICES LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2017-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
FUNDAMENTAL CLINICAL AND OPERATIONAL SERVICES, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2017-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
KARISSA HEALTH CARE LLC
—
—
2026-04-01
current
tx_hhsc_directory
KARISSA HEALTH CARE LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
LIBERTY COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT NO 1
—
—
2026-04-01
current
tx_hhsc_directory
STRATTON, CHARLES
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2017-03-31
current
pecos_ownership
ARUSHA BAVARE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHARLES STRATTON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2017-03-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JEANNIE DUPREE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-09-21
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 48201
acs median gross
0
$1,177
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48201
fmr
0
$1,280
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48201
acs median gross
1
$1,196
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48201
fmr
1
$1,323
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48201
acs median gross
2
$1,425
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48201
fmr
2
$1,573
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48201
acs median gross
3
$1,764
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48201
fmr
3
$2,116
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48201
acs median gross
4
$2,148
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48201
fmr
4
$2,639
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48201
acs median gross
5
$2,339
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48201
acs median gross
$1,401
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48201
acs recent mover gross
$1,495
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77049
acs median gross
0
$1,188
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77049
acs median gross
1
$1,439
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77049
acs median gross
2
$1,542
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77049
acs median gross
3
$1,745
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77049
acs median gross
4
$2,565
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77049
acs median gross
$1,587
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77049
acs recent mover gross
$1,708
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 77049
payment standard 110
0
$1,507
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77049
payment standard 90
0
$1,233
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77049
safmr
0
$1,370
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77049
payment standard 110
1
$1,562
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77049
payment standard 90
1
$1,278
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77049
safmr
1
$1,420
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77049
payment standard 110
2
$1,859
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77049
payment standard 90
2
$1,521
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77049
safmr
2
$1,690
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77049
payment standard 110
3
$2,497
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77049
payment standard 90
3
$2,043
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77049
safmr
3
$2,270
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77049
payment standard 110
4
$3,124
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77049
payment standard 90
4
$2,556
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77049
safmr
4
$2,840
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.