Composite
17.2 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| regulatory risk | 62.2 | 53.8 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 14.35 | in index |
| chow risk | 62.4 | 49.0 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 7.20 | in index |
| billing conduct | 24.2 | 28.4 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 5.58 | in index |
| financial risk | 17.1 | 25.0 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 3.95 | in index |
| staffing risk | 17.6 | 17.7 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 3.38 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 28.4 | B | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 74.1 | D | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 24.0 | A | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 25.0 | B | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 2.7 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 53.8 | C | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 17.7 | A | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 69.3 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 49.3 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 35.2 | B | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 31.1 | B | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 53.7 | C | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 53.7 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 17.7 | A | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 17.7 | A | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Occupancy | 0.84 | -0.41 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | -0.40 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 19.00 | +0.29 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 19.00 | -2.09 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | +1.20 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Occupancy | 0.84 | -0.38 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 3.99 | -0.33 | |
| Staffing trend, last 4 quarters | -0.56 | -0.29 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | MN median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 3.99 | 3.49 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.45 | 0.65 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 3.91 | 3.32 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 4.02 | 3.59 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 83.0 | 3.99 | 0.45 | 1.09 | 2.46 | 3.91 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 78.7 | 4.35 | 0.45 | 1.13 | 2.78 | 4.21 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 76.5 | 4.63 | 0.51 | 1.15 | 2.98 | 4.50 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 79.6 | 4.58 | 0.39 | 1.19 | 3.00 | 4.58 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 84.8 | 4.55 | 0.40 | 1.13 | 3.02 | 4.50 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 79.8 | 4.75 | 0.40 | 1.13 | 3.22 | 4.62 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 78.9 | 4.95 | 0.43 | 1.19 | 3.33 | 4.83 | 0.5% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 81.2 | 4.78 | 0.49 | 1.14 | 3.16 | 4.82 | 1.7% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 88.0 | 4.45 | 0.54 | 0.99 | 2.92 | 4.46 | 0.6% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 84.1 | 4.55 | 0.46 | 1.07 | 3.02 | 4.50 | 1.3% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 82.8 | 4.50 | 0.38 | 1.08 | 3.04 | 4.50 | 2.3% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 85.0 | 4.62 | 0.40 | 1.02 | 3.20 | 4.52 | 6.4% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 89.9 | 4.46 | 0.44 | 1.03 | 2.99 | 4.25 | 13.1% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 86.6 | 4.50 | 0.37 | 1.18 | 2.95 | 4.38 | 8.5% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 84.8 | 4.36 | 0.41 | 1.16 | 2.78 | 4.17 | 1.2% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 81.2 | 4.19 | 0.39 | 1.21 | 2.59 | 4.09 | 3.3% |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-27 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | — |
| 2026-04-27 | Health | F0554 | Allow residents to self-administer drugs if determined clinically appropriate. | D | — |
| 2026-04-27 | Health | F0572 | Give residents a notice of rights, rules, services and charges. | E | — |
| 2026-04-27 | Health | F0605 | Prevent the use of unnecessary psychotropic medications or use medications that may restrain a resident's ability to function. | E | — |
| 2026-04-27 | Health | F0628 | Provide the required documentation or notification related to the resident's needs, appeal rights, or bed-hold policies. | D | — |
| 2026-04-27 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | — |
| 2026-04-27 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | — |
| 2026-04-27 | Health | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | — |
| 2026-04-27 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | — |
| 2026-04-27 | Health | F0688 | Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason. | D | — |
| 2026-04-27 | Health | F0698 | Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services. | J | — |
| 2026-04-27 | Health | F0727 | Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis. | F | — |
| 2026-04-27 | Health | F0756 | Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures. | D | — |
| 2026-04-27 | Health | F0757 | Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs. | D | — |
| 2026-04-27 | Health · complaint | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | — |
| 2026-04-27 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | J | — |
| 2026-04-27 | Health | F0881 | Implement a program that monitors antibiotic use. | F | — |
| 2026-04-27 | Health | F0882 | Designate a qualified infection preventionist to be responsible for the infection prevent and control program in the nursing home. | F | — |
| 2026-04-27 | Health | F0883 | Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations. | D | — |
| 2025-06-12 | Health | F0561 | Honor the resident's right to and the facility must promote and facilitate resident self-determination through support of resident choice. | D | 2025-07-17 |
| 2025-06-12 | Health | F0577 | Allow residents to easily view the nursing home's survey results and communicate with advocate agencies. | C | 2025-07-24 |
| 2025-06-12 | Health | F0604 | Ensure that each resident is free from the use of physical restraints, unless needed for medical treatment. | D | 2025-07-17 |
| 2025-06-12 | Health | F0605 | Prevent the use of unnecessary psychotropic medications or use medications that may restrain a resident's ability to function. | D | 2025-07-17 |
| 2025-06-12 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2025-07-23 |
| 2025-06-12 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2025-07-28 |
| 2025-06-12 | Health | F0676 | Ensure residents do not lose the ability to perform activities of daily living unless there is a medical reason. | E | 2025-07-17 |
| 2025-06-12 | Health | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2025-07-23 |
| 2025-06-12 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2025-07-17 |
| 2025-06-12 | Health | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | D | 2025-07-28 |
| 2025-06-12 | Health | F0690 | Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections. | D | 2025-07-17 |
| 2025-06-12 | Health | F0698 | Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services. | D | 2025-07-17 |
| 2025-06-12 | Health | F0756 | Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures. | D | 2025-07-17 |
| 2025-06-12 | Health | F0757 | Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs. | D | 2025-07-24 |
| 2025-06-12 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | E | 2025-07-23 |
| 2025-06-12 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2025-07-23 |
| 2025-06-12 | Health | F0919 | Make sure that a working call system is available in each resident's bathroom and bathing area. | D | 2025-07-28 |
| 2025-03-21 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | G | 2025-04-16 |
| 2024-03-13 | Health | F0578 | Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive. | F | 2024-04-18 |
| 2024-03-13 | Health | F0604 | Ensure that each resident is free from the use of physical restraints, unless needed for medical treatment. | D | 2024-04-18 |
| 2024-03-13 | Health | F0756 | Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures. | E | 2024-04-18 |
| 2024-03-13 | Health | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | E | 2024-04-18 |
| 2024-03-13 | Health | F0883 | Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations. | E | 2024-04-18 |
| 2023-06-20 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2023-07-17 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHIES, MICHAEL | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 33% | 2017-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| CHIES, STEVEN | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 33% | 2017-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| CHIES, TIMOTHY | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 33% | 2017-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| CHIES, STEVEN | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2009-11-23 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MICHAEL CHIES | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 33% | 2017-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| STEVEN CHIES | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 33% | 2017-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| TIMOTHY CHIES | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 33% | 2017-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| STEVEN CHIES | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2009-11-23 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-22 | CURA OF ONAMIA | — | — | — | 57 | CURA OF ONAMIA LLC |
| 2024-12-01 | SHAKOPEE FRIENDSHIP MANOR | — | — | — | 60 | SHAKOPEE CARE LLC |
| 2024-12-01 | EDENBROOK ROCHESTER WEST | — | — | — | 48 | EDENBROOK ROCHESTER WEST LLC |
| 2024-10-29 | Cura of Sauk Centre | — | — | — | 60 | CURA OF SAUK CENTRE LLC |
| 2024-10-15 | Heartwood | — | — | — | 54 | CROSBY SENIOR SERVICES CARE CENTER |
| 2024-02-13 | Cura of Monticello | — | — | — | 67 | CURA OF MONTICELLO LLC |
| 2023-12-31 | MAPLEWOOD REHABILITATION CENTER | — | — | — | 115 | MAPLEWOOD REHABILITATION CENTER LLC |
| 2023-12-31 | SLEEPY EYE REHABILITATI CENTER | — | — | — | 61 | SLEEPY EYE REHABILITATION CENTER LLC |
| 2023-12-15 | ST BENEDICTS CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 75 | ECUMEN SBC ST CLOUD PROPERTIES LLC |
| 2023-12-01 | Frazee Care Center | — | — | — | 42 | LEGACY SENIOR SERVICES |
| 2023-06-05 | CURA OF LE SUEUR | — | — | — | 50 | CURA OF LE SUEUR LLC |
| 2023-05-01 | LAKEHOUSE HEALTHCARE & REHABILITATION CENTER | — | — | — | 260 | LAKE HARRIET OPERATOR LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 27003 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,189 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 27003 | fmr | 0 | $1,242 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 27003 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,196 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 27003 | fmr | 1 | $1,405 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 27003 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,513 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 27003 | fmr | 2 | $1,709 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 27003 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,772 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 27003 | fmr | 3 | $2,262 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 27003 | acs median gross | 4 | $2,132 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 27003 | fmr | 4 | $2,531 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 27003 | acs median gross | 5 | $2,824 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 27003 | acs median gross | $1,464 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 27003 | acs recent mover gross | $1,363 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 55433 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,494 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 55433 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,261 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 55433 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,493 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 55433 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,743 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 55433 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,979 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 55433 | acs median gross | 5 | $2,656 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 55433 | acs median gross | $1,433 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 55433 | acs recent mover gross | $1,241 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 55433 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $1,309 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 55433 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $1,071 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 55433 | safmr | 0 | $1,190 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 55433 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $1,485 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 55433 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $1,215 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 55433 | safmr | 1 | $1,350 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 55433 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,804 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 55433 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $1,476 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 55433 | safmr | 2 | $1,640 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 55433 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $2,387 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 55433 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,953 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 55433 | safmr | 3 | $2,170 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 55433 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $2,673 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 55433 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $2,187 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 55433 | safmr | 4 | $2,430 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |