Reads as: riskier than 77.7% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
8
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+22.5 vs natl
FOURSQUARE TEXAS 16 LLC
7 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+22.5 vs natl
ROCKETT LP
7 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+22.5 vs natl
RMM 5X5 TRUST
7 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+22.5 vs natl
DWM 5X5 TRUST
7 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+21.7 vs natl
FAIRBROOK PARTNERS LP
10 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
MILLER JOHN
18 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
MILLER RICHARD
13 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
MILLER DAVID
13 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
TX median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.65
2.67
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.25
0.24
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.29
2.56
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.79
2.72
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
114.2
2.65
0.25
0.78
1.62
2.29
0.0%
2025Q3
92
113.1
2.68
0.20
0.80
1.67
2.24
0.0%
2025Q2
91
115.3
2.49
0.21
0.65
1.64
2.16
0.0%
2025Q1
90
118.7
2.28
0.21
0.63
1.43
2.03
0.0%
2024Q4
92
112.4
2.41
0.20
0.62
1.58
2.13
0.0%
2024Q3
92
105.1
2.55
0.24
0.63
1.68
2.25
0.0%
2024Q2
91
103.4
2.38
0.25
0.64
1.49
2.04
0.0%
2024Q1
91
95.7
2.19
0.29
0.57
1.33
1.96
0.0%
2023Q4
92
96.3
2.17
0.25
0.64
1.28
1.95
0.0%
2023Q3
92
103.3
2.13
0.28
0.57
1.28
1.92
0.0%
2023Q2
91
105.5
2.23
0.25
0.60
1.38
1.88
0.0%
2023Q1
90
110.0
2.65
0.13
0.85
1.67
2.22
0.0%
2022Q4
92
100.8
2.72
0.11
0.95
1.66
2.28
0.0%
2022Q3
92
104.6
2.41
0.00
0.86
1.55
1.95
0.0%
2022Q2
91
110.0
2.01
0.16
0.69
1.17
1.74
0.0%
2022Q1
90
103.7
2.49
0.26
0.82
1.41
2.11
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
17
D × 7E × 9F × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-08-21
Health · complaint
F0558
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
E
2025-09-21
2025-08-21
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2025-09-21
2025-08-21
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2025-09-21
2025-08-21
Health
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
D
2025-09-21
2025-08-21
Health · complaint
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2025-09-21
2025-08-21
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2025-09-21
2024-07-03
Health · complaint
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
E
2024-07-08
2024-07-03
Health · complaint
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2024-07-08
2024-07-03
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2024-07-08
2024-07-03
Health · complaint
F0693
Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube.
D
2024-07-08
2024-03-21
Health · complaint
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2024-03-22
2023-05-18
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
E
2023-06-17
2023-05-18
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
E
2023-06-17
2023-05-18
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
E
2023-06-17
2023-05-18
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2023-06-17
2023-05-18
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2023-06-17
2023-05-18
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2023-06-22
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
40
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
NOCONA HOSPITAL DISTRICT
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2021-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
ATKINS, JEFFREY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
BOST, KYLE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
CAMPBELL, JOHN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
CAMPBELL, KENNETH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
DAVID W MILLER GS TRUST
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
DWM 5X5 TRUST
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
FAIRBROOK PARTNERS, LP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
FOURSQUARE TEXAS 16 LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
FOURSQUARE TEXAS 16 LLC
—
—
2024-10-01
current
tx_hhsc_directory
FOURSQUARE TEXAS 16 LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-23
current
pecos_ownership
JEC GS TRUST
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
JEM 5X5 TRUST
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
—
2021-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
JOHN E MILLER GS TRUST
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
KINGSBURY CAPITAL LLC SERIES F
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
KJC GS TRUST
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
LEWIS, SHANE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
LION PLAZA LP
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
MEEKINS, GREG
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
MID2 NH REALTY LTD
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
—
2021-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
MILLER, DAVID
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
MILLER, DON
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-20
current
pecos_ownership
MILLER, JOHN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
MILLER, RICHARD
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
MNH-INV SERIES LLC SERIES D
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
MONTAGUE NH, LP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
NOCONA HOSPITAL DISTRICT
—
—
2024-10-01
current
tx_hhsc_directory
RICHARD M MILLER GS TRUST
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
RMM 5X5 TRUST
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
—
2021-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
ROCKETT, LP
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
—
2021-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
SDL GS 5X5 TRUST
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
GREG MEEKINS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2021-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID MILLER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JEFFREY ATKINS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN CAMPBELL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN MILLER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KENNETH CAMPBELL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KYLE BOST
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RICHARD MILLER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHANE LEWIS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
34
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 48329
acs median gross
0
$1,200
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48329
fmr
0
$1,424
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48329
acs median gross
1
$1,226
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48329
fmr
1
$1,449
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48329
acs median gross
2
$1,598
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48329
fmr
2
$1,780
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48329
acs median gross
3
$1,840
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48329
fmr
3
$2,286
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48329
acs median gross
4
$1,858
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48329
fmr
4
$2,667
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48329
acs median gross
5
$3,501
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48329
acs median gross
$1,407
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48329
acs recent mover gross
$1,736
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 79705
acs median gross
0
$1,195
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 79705
acs median gross
1
$1,235
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 79705
acs median gross
2
$1,586
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 79705
acs median gross
3
$2,273
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 79705
acs median gross
$1,433
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 79705
acs recent mover gross
$1,781
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 79705
payment standard 110
0
$1,628
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 79705
payment standard 90
0
$1,332
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 79705
safmr
0
$1,480
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 79705
payment standard 110
1
$1,661
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 79705
payment standard 90
1
$1,359
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 79705
safmr
1
$1,510
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 79705
payment standard 110
2
$2,035
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 79705
payment standard 90
2
$1,665
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 79705
safmr
2
$1,850
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 79705
payment standard 110
3
$2,618
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 79705
payment standard 90
3
$2,142
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 79705
safmr
3
$2,380
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 79705
payment standard 110
4
$3,036
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 79705
payment standard 90
4
$2,484
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 79705
safmr
4
$2,760
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.