850 COUNTRY MANOR LANE, CREVE COEUR, MO 63141 · CCN 265343 · chain GOLDBERG NOM LLC
Composite
70.9 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
148
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 70.9% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
MO median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.15
2.41
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.05
0.25
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.08
2.24
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.18
2.49
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
90.4
3.15
0.05
0.82
2.27
3.08
34.6%
2025Q3
92
89.5
3.27
0.11
0.84
2.31
3.22
40.3%
2025Q2
91
91.9
2.93
0.05
0.83
2.04
2.82
27.3%
2025Q1
90
89.3
3.04
0.09
0.80
2.15
3.02
38.9%
2024Q4
92
92.2
3.06
0.10
0.81
2.14
2.99
33.2%
2024Q3
92
98.6
2.54
0.08
0.69
1.76
2.46
37.0%
2024Q2
91
103.3
2.37
0.09
0.62
1.66
2.38
28.6%
2024Q1
91
104.7
2.67
0.06
0.65
1.97
2.67
28.3%
2023Q4
92
100.6
2.65
0.07
0.68
1.90
2.65
26.5%
2023Q3
92
102.8
2.58
0.10
0.63
1.86
2.48
35.9%
2023Q2
91
105.4
2.40
0.07
0.64
1.70
2.33
41.4%
2023Q1
90
104.0
2.37
0.09
0.51
1.77
2.19
42.8%
2022Q4
92
102.7
2.63
0.08
0.58
1.96
2.54
36.4%
2022Q3
92
104.4
2.53
0.19
0.50
1.84
2.44
31.5%
2022Q2
91
105.3
2.45
0.20
0.50
1.75
2.27
33.3%
2022Q1
90
96.8
2.13
0.14
0.53
1.45
1.97
36.6%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
21
D × 13E × 7G × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-02-26
Health · complaint
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
E
2026-03-16
2026-02-26
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2026-03-25
2026-02-26
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2026-03-16
2026-02-26
Health · complaint
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
D
2026-03-16
2025-06-18
Health · complaint
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2025-08-02
2025-06-18
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2025-08-02
2025-06-18
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
E
2025-08-02
2025-06-18
Health
F0770
Provide timely, quality laboratory services/tests to meet the needs of residents.
D
2025-08-02
2025-06-18
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2025-08-02
2025-02-04
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2025-03-10
2024-10-04
Health · complaint
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2024-11-18
2024-10-04
Health · complaint
F0921
Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public.
E
2024-11-18
2023-09-20
Health · complaint
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
E
2023-10-25
2023-09-20
Health · complaint
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2023-10-25
2023-09-20
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2023-10-25
2019-09-27
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2019-10-28
2019-09-27
Health
F0655
Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted
D
2019-10-28
2019-09-27
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2019-10-28
2019-09-27
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2019-10-28
2019-09-27
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2019-10-28
2019-09-27
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2019-10-28
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
22
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
DELMAR GARDENS ENTERPRISES INC.
Other (financial or non-financial)
—
2024-04-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
DELMAR GARDENS ENTERPRISES INC.
Other (financial or non-financial)
—
2023-04-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
DELMAR GARDENS ENTERPRISES INC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2003-03-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DELMAR GARDENS ENTERPRISES INC.
Other (financial or non-financial)
100%
2020-04-01
ended 2021-03-31
hcris_a_8_1
DELMAR GARDENS MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
100%
2005-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GOLDBERG-NOM LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
25%
2003-03-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GABE GROSSBERG
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
16%
2003-03-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GEORGE GROSSBERG
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
11%
2003-03-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GABE GROSSBERG AND GEORGE GROSSBERG, TRUSTEES OF THE HENRY AND BARBARA
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
8%
2003-03-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GEORGE GROSSBERG AND GABE GROSSBERG, TRUSTEES OF THE HENRY AND BARBARA
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
8%
2003-03-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NON-GST FAMILY TRUST EST U/W OF ISRAEL GOLDBERG FBO JANICE BITANSKI
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
6%
2013-04-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NON-GST FAMILY TRUST ESTABLISHED U/W OF ISRAEL GOLDBERG FBO HARRY ZVI
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
6%
2013-04-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NON-GSTFAMILY TRUST EST U/W ISRAEL GOLDBERG FBO DIANE FREDMAN
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
6%
2013-04-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DIANE FREDMAN
OTHER
4%
2010-11-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
HARRY GOLDBERG
OTHER
4%
2010-11-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JANICE BITANSKY
OTHER
4%
2010-11-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANTOINE WILEY
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
0%
2023-06-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DELMAR GARDENS ENTERPRISES INC.
Other (financial or non-financial)
—
2022-04-01
ended 2023-03-31
hcris_a_8_1
DELMAR GARDENS ENTERPRISES INC.
Other (financial or non-financial)
—
2021-04-01
ended 2022-03-31
hcris_a_8_1
HOWARD OPPENHEIMER
OTHER
—
2003-03-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KENNETH MARX
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2022-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KENNETH MARX
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2019-06-11
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2025-03-31
$905,748
$278,471
$479,067
—
—
5
propco
2024-03-31
$935,504
$311,893
$387,536
—
—
5
propco
2023-03-31
$882,978
$263,389
$376,474
—
—
5
propco
2022-03-31
$803,849
$207,032
$350,312
—
—
5
propco
2021-03-31
$1,016,936
$208,728
$441,970
—
—
5
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 29189
acs median gross
0
$1,067
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29189
fmr
0
$955
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29189
acs median gross
1
$995
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29189
fmr
1
$995
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29189
acs median gross
2
$1,216
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29189
fmr
2
$1,218
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29189
acs median gross
3
$1,446
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29189
fmr
3
$1,568
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29189
acs median gross
4
$1,742
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29189
fmr
4
$1,812
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29189
acs median gross
5
$1,850
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29189
acs median gross
$1,209
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29189
acs recent mover gross
$1,369
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 63141
acs median gross
1
$1,404
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 63141
acs median gross
2
$1,656
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 63141
acs median gross
3
$1,795
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 63141
acs median gross
4
$3,501
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 63141
acs median gross
5
$2,386
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 63141
acs median gross
$1,612
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 63141
acs recent mover gross
$1,709
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 63141
payment standard 110
0
$1,408
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63141
payment standard 90
0
$1,152
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63141
safmr
0
$1,280
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63141
payment standard 110
1
$1,463
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63141
payment standard 90
1
$1,197
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63141
safmr
1
$1,330
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63141
payment standard 110
2
$1,793
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63141
payment standard 90
2
$1,467
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63141
safmr
2
$1,630
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63141
payment standard 110
3
$2,310
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63141
payment standard 90
3
$1,890
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63141
safmr
3
$2,100
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63141
payment standard 110
4
$2,662
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63141
payment standard 90
4
$2,178
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63141
safmr
4
$2,420
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.