2108 SW MITCHELL STREET, OAK GROVE, MO 64075 · CCN 265710 · chain CHP SNFCO LLC
Composite
44.8 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
90
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 44.8% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
3
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+21.7 vs natl
CALVERT GREGG
8 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+20.3 vs natl
STEELE SHERI
8 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
BROWN DANIELLE
15 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
MO median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
1.68
2.41
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.25
0.25
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
1.41
2.24
3.11
—
Weekday total
1.79
2.49
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
84.9
1.68
0.25
0.42
1.01
1.41
0.0%
2025Q3
92
84.6
1.67
0.26
0.37
1.03
1.45
0.0%
2025Q2
91
87.0
1.74
0.37
0.36
1.01
1.42
0.0%
2025Q1
90
87.5
1.39
0.18
0.33
0.89
1.21
0.0%
2024Q4
92
86.4
1.83
0.17
0.46
1.20
1.71
0.0%
2024Q3
92
83.1
2.35
0.19
0.47
1.69
2.05
0.0%
2024Q2
91
85.9
2.19
0.15
0.39
1.64
1.88
0.0%
2024Q1
91
87.0
2.20
0.14
0.40
1.66
1.93
0.0%
2023Q4
92
86.1
2.47
0.16
0.39
1.92
2.10
0.6%
2023Q3
92
84.6
2.08
0.13
0.26
1.69
2.06
2.9%
2023Q2
91
85.1
2.17
0.08
0.34
1.74
1.83
3.4%
2023Q1
90
81.9
1.99
0.07
0.32
1.61
1.66
3.8%
2022Q4
92
81.0
2.26
0.11
0.46
1.69
2.07
36.0%
2022Q3
92
75.4
1.72
0.16
0.40
1.15
1.75
60.6%
2022Q2
91
72.6
1.46
0.04
0.56
0.86
1.26
52.3%
2022Q1
90
66.2
3.04
0.16
0.56
2.32
2.95
87.4%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
27
D × 17E × 9F × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-02-14
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2025-02-05
2025-01-29
Health · complaint
F0559
Honor the resident's right to share a room with spouse or roommate of choice and receive written notice before a change is made.
D
2025-02-20
2024-08-02
Health
F0578
Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.
D
2024-09-16
2024-08-02
Health
F0582
Give residents notice of Medicaid/Medicare coverage and potential liability for services not covered.
D
2024-09-16
2024-08-02
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2024-07-22
2024-08-02
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2024-09-16
2024-08-02
Health
F0791
Provide or obtain dental services for each resident.
D
2024-09-16
2024-08-02
Health
F0847
Inform resident or representatives choice to enter into binding arbitration agreement and right to refuse.
E
2024-09-16
2024-01-29
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2024-03-14
2024-01-29
Health · complaint
F0622
Not transfer or discharge a resident without an adequate reason; and must provide documentation and convey specific information when a resident is transferred or discharged.
D
2024-03-14
2024-01-29
Health · complaint
F0645
PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities
D
2024-03-14
2022-11-16
Health
F0655
Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted
E
2022-12-31
2022-11-16
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
E
2022-12-31
2022-11-16
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
E
2022-12-31
2022-11-16
Health
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
D
2022-12-31
2022-11-16
Health
F0732
Post nurse staffing information every day.
E
2022-12-31
2022-11-16
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2022-12-31
2022-11-16
Health
F0756
Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures.
D
2022-12-31
2022-11-16
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2022-12-31
2022-11-16
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
F
2022-12-31
2022-11-16
Health
F0908
Keep all essential equipment working safely.
E
2022-12-31
2020-02-20
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
E
2020-04-02
2020-02-20
Health
F0688
Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason.
D
2020-04-02
2020-02-20
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2020-04-02
2020-02-20
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2020-04-02
2020-02-20
Health
F0814
Dispose of garbage and refuse properly.
D
2020-04-02
2020-02-20
Health
F0883
Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations.
D
2020-04-02
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
18
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
CALVERT, GREGG
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
12%
2022-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
STEELE, SHERI
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
8%
2022-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
BROWN, DANIEL
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2022-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
CHP SNF OPCO HOLDINGS 2, LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2022-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHP SNFCO LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2022-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ERGO MIDWEST INC.
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
ERGO MIDWEST INC.
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
ERGO MIDWEST INC.
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2022-01-01
ended 2022-04-30
hcris_a_8_1
SYSTEMS LEASING INC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2022-01-01
ended 2022-04-30
hcris_a_8_1
SYSTEMS LEASING INC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
SYSTEMS LEASING INC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
CHP SNF HOLDINGS LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
80%
2022-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DANIEL BROWN
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
50%
2022-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GREGG CALVERT
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
50%
2022-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL BRODY
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
28%
2022-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BARBARA BROWN
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
21%
2022-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
VICTOR SHEVLYAGIN
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
10%
2022-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHERI STEELE
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
8%
2022-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
6
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$421,451
—
$421,451
—
—
1
—
2023-12-31
$421,614
—
$421,614
—
—
0
—
2022-12-31
$312,037
—
$312,037
—
—
0
—
2022-04-30
$295,759
—
—
$65,578
$57,755
10
propco
2021-12-31
$669,705
—
—
$196,732
$157,121
10
propco
2020-12-31
$750,755
—
—
$208,435
$171,071
10
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
32
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 29095
acs median gross
0
$938
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29095
fmr
0
$1,095
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29095
acs median gross
1
$1,024
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29095
fmr
1
$1,197
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29095
acs median gross
2
$1,179
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29095
fmr
2
$1,358
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29095
acs median gross
3
$1,422
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29095
fmr
3
$1,769
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29095
acs median gross
4
$1,731
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29095
fmr
4
$2,103
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29095
acs median gross
5
$1,736
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29095
acs median gross
$1,197
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29095
acs recent mover gross
$1,373
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 64075
acs median gross
1
$417
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 64075
acs median gross
2
$957
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 64075
acs median gross
3
$1,416
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 64075
acs median gross
$994
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 64075
payment standard 110
0
$990
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64075
payment standard 90
0
$810
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64075
safmr
0
$900
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64075
payment standard 110
1
$1,089
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64075
payment standard 90
1
$891
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64075
safmr
1
$990
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64075
payment standard 110
2
$1,232
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64075
payment standard 90
2
$1,008
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64075
safmr
2
$1,120
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64075
payment standard 110
3
$1,606
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64075
payment standard 90
3
$1,314
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64075
safmr
3
$1,460
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64075
payment standard 110
4
$1,903
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64075
payment standard 90
4
$1,557
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64075
safmr
4
$1,730
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.