Composite
24.7 / 100 percentile
Screener / 265891
A
BAPTIST HOMES OF ARCADIA VALLEY
snfMO
101 RIGGS-SCOTT LANE, IRONTON, MO 63650 · CCN 265891
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
moderate
Certified beds
36
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 24.7% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
Score model3Components9CHOW radar1Distress radar1Penalties0Deficiencies8Licensure0Ownership52Related party0Transactions0Comps12Market rent31
Composite explanation
3| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| financial risk | 79.9 | 66.8 | 0.30 | 0.4000 | 31.96 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 15.9 | 10.3 | 0.30 | 0.4000 | 6.36 | in index |
| chow risk | 0.5 | 15.0 | 0.15 | 0.2000 | 0.10 | in index |
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Component scores and registry models
9| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| chow risk | 15.0 | A | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| financial risk | 66.8 | D | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.3 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 0.1 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 10.3 | A | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| financial risk | 66.8 | D | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 66.8 | D | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 10.2 | A | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 10.2 | A | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
CHOW radar — 12-month sale probability
full board →p(CHOW, 12m)
0.1%
model v0.1 · computed 2026-07-29
Percentile among SNFs
28.2
100 = most likely to sell
Holdout AUC
0.874
evaluated before shipping, never refit
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| No PBJ staffing report | 1.00 | -3.61 | |
| Occupancy | 0.00 | +2.02 | |
| For-profit ownership | 0.00 | -1.24 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 0.00 | +0.60 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | -0.40 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 |
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Distress radar — 12-month termination probability
full board →p(termination, 12m)
0.3%
model v0.1 · computed 2026-07-29
Percentile among SNFs
68.1
100 = most likely to lose certification
Holdout AUC
0.971
top decile caught 95% of actual exits
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| No PBJ staffing report | 1.00 | -7.43 | |
| Occupancy | 0.00 | +3.15 | |
| For-profit ownership | 0.00 | +1.62 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 0.00 | +1.43 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 0.00 | +1.35 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | +1.20 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 | |
| Facility size (log beds) | 3.61 | +0.15 |
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Penalties
0No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
8D × 3E × 1F × 4
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-07 | Health | F0698 | Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services. | D | 2025-04-14 |
| 2025-03-07 | Health | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | D | 2025-04-14 |
| 2025-03-07 | Health | F0759 | Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater. | D | 2025-04-14 |
| 2025-03-07 | Health | F0865 | Have a plan that describes the process for conducting QAPI and QAA activities. | F | 2025-04-14 |
| 2025-03-07 | Health | F0867 | Set up an ongoing quality assessment and assurance group to review quality deficiencies and develop corrective plans of action. | F | 2025-04-14 |
| 2025-03-07 | Health | F0868 | Have the Quality Assessment and Assurance group have the required members and meet at least quarterly | F | 2025-04-14 |
| 2025-03-07 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2025-04-14 |
| 2025-03-07 | Health | F0881 | Implement a program that monitors antibiotic use. | F | 2025-04-14 |
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
52| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABBOTT, JEANNE | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2025-10-28 | current | pecos_ownership |
| ABBOTT, KENNETH | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2025-10-28 | current | pecos_ownership |
| BURKE, EDWARD | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-11-12 | current | pecos_ownership |
| BURKE, EDWARD | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2025-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| CAMPBELL, BEVERLEY | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2025-10-28 | current | pecos_ownership |
| CANTERBERRY, JOHN | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2025-10-28 | current | pecos_ownership |
| CULBERTSON, TROY | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2026-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| DE NOON, WILLIAM | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2025-10-28 | current | pecos_ownership |
| FABER, TIMOTHY | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2025-10-28 | current | pecos_ownership |
| GOOD, DERRICK | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2025-10-28 | current | pecos_ownership |
| HARDER, KENETTE | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2025-10-28 | current | pecos_ownership |
| HARDY, JEFFREY | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2025-10-28 | current | pecos_ownership |
| HOLDSWORTH, LEAH | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2025-10-28 | current | pecos_ownership |
| LACKEY, KATHRYN | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2025-10-28 | current | pecos_ownership |
| LANE, ALLAN | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2025-10-28 | current | pecos_ownership |
| LOYD, ROBERT | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2025-10-28 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MARTIN, ROGER | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2025-10-28 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MATHER, BREANNA | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2025-10-28 | current | pecos_ownership |
| NEWBOLD, BRAD | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2025-10-28 | current | pecos_ownership |
| NICHOLS, LLOYD | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2025-10-28 | current | pecos_ownership |
| PERKINS, WILLIAM | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2025-10-28 | current | pecos_ownership |
| SMITH, SCOTT | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2025-10-28 | current | pecos_ownership |
| STILES, DANIEL | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-11-12 | current | pecos_ownership |
| STILES, DANIEL | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2025-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| STUNKEL, LEIDRA | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2025-10-28 | current | pecos_ownership |
| TUNNELL, WENDY | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2025-10-28 | current | pecos_ownership |
| TROY CULBERTSON | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | 100% | 2026-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| ALLAN LANE | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2025-10-28 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| BEVERLEY CAMPBELL | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2025-10-28 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| BRAD NEWBOLD | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2025-10-28 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| BREANNA MATHER | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2025-10-28 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| DANIEL STILES | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-11-12 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| DANIEL STILES | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2025-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| DERRICK GOOD | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2025-10-28 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| EDWARD BURKE | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-11-12 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| EDWARD BURKE | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2025-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JEANNE ABBOTT | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2025-10-28 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JEFFREY HARDY | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2025-10-28 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JOHN CANTERBERRY | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2025-10-28 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| KATHRYN LACKEY | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2025-10-28 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| KENETTE HARDER | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2025-10-28 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| KENNETH ABBOTT | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2025-10-28 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| LEAH HOLDSWORTH | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2025-10-28 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| LEIDRA STUNKEL | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2025-10-28 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| LLOYD NICHOLS | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2025-10-28 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| ROBERT LOYD | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2025-10-28 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| ROGER MARTIN | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2025-10-28 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| SCOTT SMITH | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2025-10-28 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| TIMOTHY FABER | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2025-10-28 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| WENDY TUNNELL | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2025-10-28 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| WILLIAM DE NOON | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2025-10-28 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| WILLIAM PERKINS | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2025-10-28 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Transactions
0No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Comparable trades — MO snf
12| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-01 | AVENIR AT MAPLE GROVE | — | — | — | 90 | NBH2 MGOPCO LLC |
| 2025-10-01 | AVENIR AT MARK TWAIN | — | — | — | 120 | NBH1 MTOPCO LLC |
| 2025-10-01 | ARBOR HILLS CARE & REHAB CENTER | — | — | — | 150 | ARBOR HILLS HEALTHCARE, LLC |
| 2025-10-01 | ASCEND AT AURORA | — | — | — | 125 | NBH3 SFOPCO LLC |
| 2025-09-01 | HUBBLE CREEK | — | — | — | 105 | HUBBLE CREEK LLC |
| 2025-08-01 | HIDDEN LAKE HEALTH CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 67 | HIDDEN LAKE HEALTH CARE CENTER, LLC |
| 2025-05-01 | PINE GROVE MANOR | — | — | — | 77 | PINE GROVE MANOR LLC |
| 2025-05-01 | MONARCH SPRINGS WELLNESS & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 119 | MONARCH SPRINGS WELLNESS & REHABILITATION LLC |
| 2025-05-01 | ASPIRE SENIOR LIVING NEW FLORENCE | — | — | — | 87 | ASPIRE SENIOR LIVING NEW FLORENCE LLC |
| 2025-04-01 | SOUTH COUNTY HEALTH CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 153 | SOUTH COUNTY HEALTH CARE CENTER, L.L.C. |
| 2025-02-01 | ARBOR VIEW NURSING AND REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 150 | FORREST OPCO LLC |
| 2025-02-01 | AMBERWOOD ESTATES NURSING AND REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 115 | ISLAND HC OPERATIONS LLC |
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
31| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 29093 | acs median gross | 0 | $669 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29093 | fmr | 0 | $660 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 29093 | acs median gross | 1 | $571 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29093 | fmr | 1 | $810 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 29093 | acs median gross | 2 | $682 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29093 | fmr | 2 | $888 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 29093 | acs median gross | 3 | $746 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29093 | fmr | 3 | $1,084 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 29093 | acs median gross | 4 | $949 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29093 | fmr | 4 | $1,371 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 29093 | acs median gross | $664 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 29093 | acs recent mover gross | $595 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 63650 | acs median gross | 1 | $568 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 63650 | acs median gross | 2 | $689 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 63650 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,023 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 63650 | acs median gross | $710 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 63650 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $869 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63650 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $711 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63650 | safmr | 0 | $790 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63650 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $1,067 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63650 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $873 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63650 | safmr | 1 | $970 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63650 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,177 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63650 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $963 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63650 | safmr | 2 | $1,070 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63650 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,441 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63650 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,179 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63650 | safmr | 3 | $1,310 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63650 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $1,804 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63650 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,476 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63650 | safmr | 4 | $1,640 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.