Reads as: riskier than 93.7% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
11
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+28.9 vs natl
MOORE GREGORY
10 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+28.4 vs natl
CHOI ROBERT
8 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+28.4 vs natl
CHOI MARYANN
8 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+28.4 vs natl
O DONOGHUE STALLARD MAIRE
8 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+28.4 vs natl
STALLARD THOMAS
8 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+27.7 vs natl
CUNNINGHAM ERNEST
6 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+22.5 vs natl
STRATFORD HOSPITAL DISTRICT
29 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+22.0 vs natl
CHUMLEY RICHARD
30 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
41% fined
STRATFORD HOSPITAL DISTRICT
29 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
MOORE GREGORY
10 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
CHUMLEY RICHARD
30 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
TX median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.84
2.67
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.31
0.24
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.55
2.56
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.95
2.72
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
45.8
2.84
0.31
0.76
1.77
2.55
3.3%
2025Q3
92
42.4
2.78
0.31
0.83
1.65
2.68
1.8%
2025Q2
91
41.0
2.51
0.35
0.69
1.47
2.46
0.0%
2025Q1
90
44.3
2.62
0.32
0.79
1.51
2.62
0.0%
2024Q4
92
50.1
2.96
0.32
0.94
1.69
2.69
0.0%
2024Q3
92
52.5
2.95
0.28
1.04
1.62
2.77
0.0%
2024Q2
91
56.4
2.90
0.32
0.92
1.66
2.68
2.9%
2024Q1
91
56.1
2.20
0.27
0.73
1.21
1.80
3.6%
2023Q4
92
58.7
2.63
0.31
0.86
1.47
2.53
7.6%
2023Q3
92
60.6
2.66
0.24
0.86
1.55
2.62
11.8%
2023Q2
91
62.4
2.60
0.23
0.78
1.59
2.44
9.6%
2023Q1
90
60.8
2.65
0.24
0.83
1.58
2.43
4.0%
2022Q4
92
60.3
2.50
0.21
0.82
1.47
2.37
0.0%
2022Q3
92
61.4
3.23
0.35
0.97
1.92
3.34
0.4%
2022Q2
91
62.5
3.09
0.34
0.91
1.84
3.25
5.8%
2022Q1
90
64.8
2.80
0.37
0.68
1.75
2.64
11.1%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Help the resident with transportation to and from laboratory services outside of the facility.
D
2025-06-20
2025-02-14
Health
F0583
Keep residents' personal and medical records private and confidential.
D
2025-03-14
2025-02-14
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2025-03-14
2025-02-14
Health
F0697
Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services.
J
2025-02-15
2025-02-14
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2025-03-14
2025-02-14
Health
F0804
Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature.
E
2025-03-14
2025-02-14
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2025-03-14
2025-02-14
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-03-14
2025-02-14
Health
F0881
Implement a program that monitors antibiotic use.
D
2025-03-14
2024-04-04
Health · complaint
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2024-03-12
2024-02-06
Health · complaint
F0624
Prepare residents for a safe transfer or discharge from the nursing home.
D
2024-03-08
2024-02-06
Health · complaint
F0625
Notify the resident or the resident’s representative in writing how long the nursing home will hold the resident’s bed in cases of transfer to a hospital or therapeutic leave.
D
2024-03-08
2023-12-21
Health
F0557
Honor the resident's right to be treated with respect and dignity and to retain and use personal possessions.
E
2024-01-19
2023-12-21
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2024-01-19
2023-12-21
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
E
2024-01-19
2023-12-21
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2024-01-19
2023-12-21
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2024-01-19
2022-10-07
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
B
2022-11-04
2022-10-07
Health
F0700
Try different approaches before using a bed rail. If a bed rail is needed, the facility must (1) assess a resident for safety risk; (2) review these risks and benefits with the resident/representative; (3) get informed consent; and (4) Correctly install and maintain the bed rail.
E
2022-11-04
2022-10-07
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2022-11-04
2022-10-07
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2022-11-04
2022-10-07
Health
F0909
Regularly inspect all bed frames, mattresses, and bed rails (if any) for safety; and all bed rails and mattresses must attach safely to the bed frame.
E
2022-11-04
2022-10-07
Health
F0921
Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public.
E
2022-11-04
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
19
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
STRATFORD HOSPITAL DISTRICT
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2020-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
CARADAY STONEBRIDGE LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2020-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
CARADAY STONEBRIDGE, LLC
—
—
2026-06-01
current
tx_hhsc_directory
CASTRO POU, GRACIELA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
CHOI, MARYANN
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-05
current
pecos_ownership
CHOI, ROBERT
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-05
current
pecos_ownership
CHUMLEY, RICHARD
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2020-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
CUNNINGHAM, ERNEST
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-05
current
pecos_ownership
GRANITE STONEBRIDGE HEALTH CENTER, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
MOORE, GREGORY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2020-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
O'DONOGHUE-STALLARD, MAIRE
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-05
current
pecos_ownership
REGIER, VERNA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
STALLARD, THOMAS
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-05
current
pecos_ownership
STRATFORD HOSPITAL DISTRICT
—
—
2026-06-01
current
tx_hhsc_directory
WOOD, STEPHEN
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-05
current
pecos_ownership
RICHARD CHUMLEY
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2020-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GRACIELA CASTRO POU
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GREGORY MOORE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2020-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
VERNA REGIER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
33
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 48453
acs median gross
0
$1,416
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48453
fmr
0
$1,474
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48453
acs median gross
1
$1,553
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48453
fmr
1
$1,562
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48453
acs median gross
2
$1,849
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48453
fmr
2
$1,852
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48453
acs median gross
3
$2,195
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48453
fmr
3
$2,347
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48453
acs median gross
4
$2,463
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48453
fmr
4
$2,760
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48453
acs median gross
5
$2,958
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48453
acs median gross
$1,744
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48453
acs recent mover gross
$1,845
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 78736
acs median gross
1
$1,717
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 78736
acs median gross
2
$2,073
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 78736
acs median gross
4
$2,675
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 78736
acs median gross
$1,830
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 78736
acs recent mover gross
$1,846
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 78736
payment standard 110
0
$1,848
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78736
payment standard 90
0
$1,512
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78736
safmr
0
$1,680
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78736
payment standard 110
1
$1,958
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78736
payment standard 90
1
$1,602
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78736
safmr
1
$1,780
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78736
payment standard 110
2
$2,321
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78736
payment standard 90
2
$1,899
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78736
safmr
2
$2,110
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78736
payment standard 110
3
$2,937
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78736
payment standard 90
3
$2,403
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78736
safmr
3
$2,670
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78736
payment standard 110
4
$3,454
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78736
payment standard 90
4
$2,826
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78736
safmr
4
$3,140
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.