Reads as: riskier than 70.1% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
13
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
35 chains
WELLTOWER INC
135 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
33 chains
WELLTOWER OP LLC
147 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
28 chains
FREUND NOCHUM
109 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
28 chains
TRAVITSKY AARON
106 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
27 chains
WELLTOWER NNN GROUP LLC
102 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
27 chains
DAGAN AMITAI
101 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
27 chains
GOLDBERGER ABRAHAM
100 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+23.7 vs natl
THOMPSON JOHNNY
74 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+20.5 vs natl
GOLDBERGER FAIGY
111 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
20 chains
GOLDBERGER FAIGY
68 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+20.0 vs natl
TRAVITSKY AARON
153 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
46% fined
WELLTOWER NNN GROUP LLC
111 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
45% fined
THOMPSON JOHNNY
74 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
TX median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.76
2.67
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.28
0.24
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.66
2.56
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.81
2.72
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
76.1
2.76
0.28
0.90
1.58
2.66
0.0%
2025Q3
92
77.2
2.51
0.18
0.91
1.43
2.36
2.5%
2025Q2
91
80.1
2.49
0.23
0.84
1.42
2.27
2.5%
2025Q1
90
82.4
2.20
0.17
0.81
1.21
2.00
1.3%
2024Q4
92
76.3
2.50
0.16
0.89
1.46
2.48
22.2%
2024Q3
92
77.1
1.86
0.15
0.82
0.88
1.75
3.6%
2024Q2
91
74.7
1.92
0.14
0.93
0.86
1.82
0.0%
2024Q1
91
77.8
1.93
0.17
0.97
0.80
1.87
0.0%
2023Q4
92
83.5
1.95
0.15
0.90
0.90
1.88
0.0%
2023Q3
92
79.4
2.30
0.15
0.94
1.21
2.29
0.0%
2023Q2
91
71.5
2.40
0.12
1.07
1.21
2.34
0.0%
2023Q1
90
68.5
2.65
0.21
1.03
1.41
2.49
0.0%
2022Q4
92
65.2
3.02
0.21
1.11
1.71
2.79
0.0%
2022Q3
92
69.0
2.80
0.24
1.07
1.49
2.52
0.0%
2022Q2
91
68.1
2.61
0.25
1.00
1.36
2.36
0.0%
2022Q1
90
61.5
2.90
0.17
1.30
1.43
2.73
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2026-03-20
2026-03-19
Health · complaint
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
E
2026-03-20
2026-03-19
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2026-03-20
2025-09-09
Health
F0583
Keep residents' personal and medical records private and confidential.
D
2025-09-30
2025-09-09
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2025-09-30
2025-09-09
Health
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
E
2025-09-30
2025-09-09
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2025-09-30
2025-09-09
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2025-09-30
2025-09-09
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2025-09-30
2025-09-09
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-09-30
2025-07-01
Health · complaint
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
E
2025-08-04
2024-08-16
Health
F0583
Keep residents' personal and medical records private and confidential.
D
2024-09-20
2024-08-16
Health
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
D
2024-09-20
2024-08-16
Health
F0645
PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities
D
2024-09-20
2024-08-16
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2024-09-20
2024-08-16
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2024-09-20
2024-08-16
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2024-09-20
2024-08-16
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2024-09-20
2024-08-16
Health
F0925
Make sure there is a pest control program to prevent/deal with mice, insects, or other pests.
E
2024-09-20
2024-07-26
Health · complaint
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
G
2024-05-08
2024-04-11
Health · complaint
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
K
2024-04-12
2024-04-11
Health · complaint
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2024-04-12
2024-04-11
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
K
2024-04-12
2024-04-11
Health · complaint
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2024-04-12
2023-11-15
Health · complaint
F0583
Keep residents' personal and medical records private and confidential.
D
2023-11-21
2023-09-11
Health · complaint
F0607
Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft.
D
2023-09-28
2023-05-05
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2023-06-16
2023-05-05
Health
F0919
Make sure that a working call system is available in each resident's bathroom and bathing area.
D
2023-06-16
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
39
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
221 CEDAR DR OPCO LLC
—
—
2025-10-01
current
tx_hhsc_directory
221 CEDAR DR OPCO, LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
221 CEDAR DR OPCO, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-03-13
current
pecos_ownership
221 CEDAR DR PROPERTY OWNER, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
DAGAN, AMITAI
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-03-13
current
pecos_ownership
FREUND, NOCHUM
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
GOLDBERGER, ABRAHAM
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-03-13
current
pecos_ownership
GOLDBERGER, FAIGY
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-04-06
current
pecos_ownership
HICKEY, LYNN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-10-16
current
pecos_ownership
LEE SANG, JEROME
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
THOMPSON, JOHNNY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2023-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
TRAVITSKY, AARON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
WELLTOWER INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
WELLTOWER NNN GROUP, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
WELLTOWER OP, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
WEST WHARTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
—
—
2025-10-01
current
tx_hhsc_directory
WEST WHARTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2019-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
INTERNATIONAL BANK OF COMMERCE
5% OR GREATER SECURITY INTEREST
5%
2022-05-19
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHNNY THOMPSON
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2023-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AEGIS THERAPIES, INC.
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRYON SEHLKE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CARVAJAL PHARMACY LTC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHANZ SCROPIO
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-06
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CYNTHIA GILCREASE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CYNTHIA GILCREASE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2016-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DARRELL ZUROVEC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
HEALTHCARE INVESTMENTS 2 LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
HERITAGE BULVERDE REAL ESTATE LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-01-25
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JEROME LEE SANG
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LESLIE CAMPBELL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LYNN HICKEY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-10-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LYNNEA CASTILLO
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NUTRITIOUS LIFESTYLES, INC.
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PLANTE & MORAN PLLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
REGENCY IHS OF COASTAL PALMS LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
REGENCY IHS OF COASTAL PALMS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TOUCHSTONE COMMUNITIES INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TOUCHSTONE REALTY - PORTLAND LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TRIDENT HEALTH SERVICES INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 48409
acs median gross
0
$1,325
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48409
fmr
0
$1,031
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48409
acs median gross
1
$1,055
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48409
fmr
1
$1,117
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48409
acs median gross
2
$1,201
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48409
fmr
2
$1,366
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48409
acs median gross
3
$1,569
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48409
fmr
3
$1,796
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48409
acs median gross
4
$2,077
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48409
fmr
4
$2,054
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48409
acs median gross
5
$1,321
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48409
acs median gross
$1,291
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48409
acs recent mover gross
$1,460
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 78374
acs median gross
0
$1,689
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 78374
acs median gross
1
$1,568
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 78374
acs median gross
2
$1,260
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 78374
acs median gross
3
$2,024
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 78374
acs median gross
4
$2,267
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 78374
acs median gross
$1,580
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 78374
acs recent mover gross
$1,481
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 78374
payment standard 110
0
$1,496
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78374
payment standard 90
0
$1,224
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78374
safmr
0
$1,360
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78374
payment standard 110
1
$1,617
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78374
payment standard 90
1
$1,323
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78374
safmr
1
$1,470
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78374
payment standard 110
2
$1,980
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78374
payment standard 90
2
$1,620
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78374
safmr
2
$1,800
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78374
payment standard 110
3
$2,607
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78374
payment standard 90
3
$2,133
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78374
safmr
3
$2,370
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78374
payment standard 110
4
$2,981
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78374
payment standard 90
4
$2,439
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78374
safmr
4
$2,710
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.