Reads as: riskier than 32.7% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
7
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
47 chains
FORVIS MAZARS LLP
251 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+26.1 vs natl
HEALTHMARK GROUP LTD
6 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
15 chains
CIBC BANK USA
155 facilities
connection
Buyer assembling a chain (5+ takeovers/24mo)
6 facilities
WINNIE-STOWELL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
6 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
50% fined
HEALTHMARK GROUP LTD
6 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
50% fined
HM GROUP LLC
6 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
46% fined
MURRELL EDWARD
76 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
TX median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.49
2.67
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.36
0.24
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.73
2.56
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.78
2.72
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
106.2
3.49
0.36
1.19
1.95
2.73
0.0%
2025Q3
92
97.3
3.99
0.39
1.38
2.23
3.18
0.0%
2025Q2
91
100.8
3.94
0.39
1.31
2.24
3.47
0.0%
2025Q1
90
105.7
3.80
0.39
1.28
2.13
3.28
0.0%
2024Q4
92
102.5
3.73
0.29
1.34
2.09
3.24
0.0%
2024Q3
92
103.3
3.88
0.26
1.47
2.16
3.46
0.0%
2024Q2
91
105.7
3.90
0.23
1.45
2.23
3.44
0.0%
2024Q1
91
113.3
3.51
0.30
1.26
1.95
3.11
0.0%
2023Q4
92
106.4
3.50
0.27
1.27
1.97
3.06
0.0%
2023Q3
92
103.4
3.51
0.33
1.19
2.00
3.01
0.0%
2023Q2
91
115.1
3.30
0.33
1.10
1.87
2.67
0.1%
2023Q1
90
110.7
3.07
0.33
1.03
1.71
2.67
0.0%
2022Q4
92
105.5
3.23
0.30
1.15
1.79
2.75
0.0%
2022Q3
92
98.8
3.19
0.20
1.25
1.74
2.67
0.0%
2022Q2
91
98.3
3.43
0.38
1.20
1.84
2.84
0.0%
2022Q1
90
117.7
2.82
0.33
1.00
1.49
2.35
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
12
C × 1D × 7E × 3F × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-02-05
Health · complaint
F0732
Post nurse staffing information every day.
C
2026-02-06
2025-11-21
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2025-11-24
2025-11-21
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2025-11-25
2025-11-21
Health
F0693
Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube.
D
2025-11-24
2025-11-21
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2025-11-24
2025-11-21
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2025-11-24
2025-11-21
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2025-11-24
2024-08-08
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2024-08-15
2023-07-14
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2023-08-08
2023-07-14
Health · complaint
F0807
Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides drinks consistent with resident needs and preferences and sufficient to maintain resident hydration.
E
2023-08-08
2023-07-14
Health · complaint
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2023-08-08
2023-07-14
Health
F0814
Dispose of garbage and refuse properly.
D
2023-08-08
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
48
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
BALSAMO, KRYSTAL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-09-29
current
pecos_ownership
CIBC BANK USA
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2018-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
CULP, ROLAND
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2012-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
DASPIT, LAURENCE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2012-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
DOHN, WILLIAM
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-03-27
current
pecos_ownership
FORVIS MAZARS LLP
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2018-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
HEALTHMARK GROUP LTD
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-08-27
current
pecos_ownership
HM GROUP LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-08-27
current
pecos_ownership
HMG PARK MANOR OF THE WOODLANDS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-08-27
current
pecos_ownership
HMG PARK MANOR OF THE WOODLANDS LLC
—
—
2024-04-01
current
tx_hhsc_directory
HUSSAIN, FEROZE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
MATTEWAL, AMARBIR
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
MEGHANI, ASHRAFALI
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-04-03
current
pecos_ownership
MURRELL, EDWARD
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2012-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
MURRELL, EDWARD
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
PICO, ANA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2012-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
PRINCE, DEREK
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2012-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
REINARZ, CHRISTIAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-05-13
current
pecos_ownership
ROLLO, JEFFERY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
ROLLO, JEFFERY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2012-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
STANBRIDGE, NORMA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2014-09-29
current
pecos_ownership
STRAMECKI, ANTHONY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2016-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
STRAMECKI, ANTHONY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
VRATIS, KACEY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
WAY, GEORGE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
WINNIE STOWELL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
—
—
2024-04-01
current
tx_hhsc_directory
ZIONS BANCORPORATION
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2018-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
ANTHONY STRAMECKI
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
100%
2016-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
EDWARD MURRELL
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2012-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
HMG SERVICES LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2018-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JEFFERY ROLLO
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2012-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANA PICO
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
33%
2012-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DEREK PRINCE
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
33%
2012-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LAURENCE DASPIT
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
33%
2012-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROLAND CULP
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
33%
2012-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WINNIE-STOWELL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
0%
2018-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AMARBIR MATTEWAL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANTHONY STRAMECKI
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ASHRAFALI MEGHANI
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-04-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHRISTIAN REINARZ
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-05-13
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
EDWARD MURRELL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
FEROZE HUSSAIN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GEORGE WAY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JEFFERY ROLLO
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KACEY VRATIS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KRYSTAL BALSAMO
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-09-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NORMA STANBRIDGE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2014-09-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WILLIAM DOHN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-03-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 48339
acs median gross
0
$1,290
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48339
fmr
0
$1,280
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48339
acs median gross
1
$1,320
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48339
fmr
1
$1,323
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48339
acs median gross
2
$1,560
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48339
fmr
2
$1,573
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48339
acs median gross
3
$1,783
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48339
fmr
3
$2,116
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48339
acs median gross
4
$2,475
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48339
fmr
4
$2,639
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48339
acs median gross
5
$2,621
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48339
acs median gross
$1,532
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48339
acs recent mover gross
$1,649
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77384
acs median gross
0
$1,412
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77384
acs median gross
1
$1,404
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77384
acs median gross
2
$1,656
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77384
acs median gross
3
$2,367
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77384
acs median gross
4
$2,634
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77384
acs median gross
$1,585
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77384
acs recent mover gross
$1,806
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 77384
payment standard 110
0
$1,485
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77384
payment standard 90
0
$1,215
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77384
safmr
0
$1,350
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77384
payment standard 110
1
$1,540
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77384
payment standard 90
1
$1,260
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77384
safmr
1
$1,400
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77384
payment standard 110
2
$1,826
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77384
payment standard 90
2
$1,494
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77384
safmr
2
$1,660
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77384
payment standard 110
3
$2,453
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77384
payment standard 90
3
$2,007
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77384
safmr
3
$2,230
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77384
payment standard 110
4
$3,058
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77384
payment standard 90
4
$2,502
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77384
safmr
4
$2,780
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.