Reads as: riskier than 95.5% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
25
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+39.9 vs natl
MILLENNIAL ACQUISITIONS LLC
6 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+38.6 vs natl
WINDSOR SQUARE REALTY LLC
6 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+38.6 vs natl
SCOOPER REALTY LLC
6 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+33.8 vs natl
HAGINS ELIZABETH
52 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+32.4 vs natl
GIBRALTAR TRUST
28 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+32.1 vs natl
GARETZ DAVID
66 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+32.0 vs natl
MINDLE ADAM
56 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+30.5 vs natl
KAPLAN ESTHER
55 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+30.0 vs natl
KAPLAN MORDECHAI
38 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+29.0 vs natl
OPCO CA SKILLED MGMT INC
41 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+28.9 vs natl
UNGER JEFFREY
46 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+28.8 vs natl
GURWITZ SOLOMON
42 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+28.3 vs natl
MONTGOMERY SKY TRUST
17 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+28.2 vs natl
CONTINUUM REHAB GROUP LLC
36 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+25.7 vs natl
MAGNOLIA REALTY LLC
9 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+24.6 vs natl
OREGON REALTY LLC
11 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+24.4 vs natl
OPCO TEXAS SKILLED MGMT LLC
21 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+23.0 vs natl
CORYELL COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
30 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+21.8 vs natl
BYROM DAVID
29 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
12 chains
GARETZ DAVID
61 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
11 chains
HAGINS ELIZABETH
48 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
11 chains
KAPLAN ESTHER
54 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
11 chains
MINDLE ADAM
52 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
10 chains
GURWITZ SOLOMON
41 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
9 chains
OPCO CA SKILLED MGMT INC
40 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
TX median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.79
2.67
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.34
0.24
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.57
2.56
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.87
2.72
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
126.5
2.79
0.34
0.76
1.68
2.57
0.0%
2025Q3
92
121.4
2.86
0.39
0.75
1.71
2.62
0.0%
2025Q2
91
137.0
2.81
0.43
0.79
1.60
2.63
0.5%
2025Q1
90
137.7
2.82
0.31
0.93
1.58
2.61
0.0%
2024Q4
92
136.8
2.72
0.20
0.99
1.53
2.55
0.0%
2024Q3
92
129.7
2.68
0.09
1.07
1.52
2.52
0.0%
2024Q2
91
133.5
2.74
0.20
0.97
1.57
2.56
0.0%
2024Q1
91
142.1
2.64
0.16
1.01
1.47
2.48
0.0%
2023Q4
92
148.3
2.48
0.18
0.92
1.38
2.29
0.0%
2023Q3
92
145.7
2.80
0.22
0.97
1.60
2.66
0.0%
2023Q2
91
132.5
3.04
0.35
1.00
1.69
2.89
0.0%
2023Q1
90
117.5
3.29
0.41
1.06
1.82
3.10
0.0%
2022Q4
92
120.9
3.15
0.43
1.01
1.72
2.87
0.0%
2022Q3
92
121.0
2.89
0.41
0.95
1.52
2.68
0.0%
2022Q2
91
124.1
2.83
0.47
0.88
1.48
2.68
0.3%
2022Q1
90
110.6
3.01
0.53
0.92
1.55
2.91
0.8%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2025-12-12
2025-12-11
Health
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
D
2025-12-12
2025-12-11
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2025-12-12
2025-12-11
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2025-12-12
2025-11-17
Health · complaint
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2025-11-18
2025-11-17
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-11-18
2025-11-17
Health · complaint
F0919
Make sure that a working call system is available in each resident's bathroom and bathing area.
D
2025-11-18
2025-03-26
Health · complaint
F0811
Ensure that residents are assessed for appropriateness for a feeding assistant program, receive services as per their plan of care, and feeding assistants are trained and supervised.
D
2025-03-27
2025-02-20
Health · complaint
F0655
Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted
D
2025-02-21
2025-02-20
Health · complaint
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2025-02-21
2025-02-20
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-02-21
2025-01-14
Health · complaint
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2025-01-15
2024-09-13
Health
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
J
2024-09-14
2024-09-13
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2024-09-14
2023-08-15
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2023-08-17
2023-08-04
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2023-08-05
2023-08-04
Health
F0642
Ensure a qualified health professional conducts resident assessments.
E
2023-08-05
2023-06-23
Health · complaint
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2023-06-24
2023-06-23
Health · complaint
F0693
Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube.
G
2023-06-24
2023-06-23
Health · complaint
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
G
2023-06-24
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
30
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
CORYELL COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2018-08-16
current
pecos_ownership
2001 FOREST RIDGE DRIVE TX, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-08-16
current
pecos_ownership
BYROM, DAVID
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2018-08-16
current
pecos_ownership
CONTINUUM REHAB GROUP LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-08-16
current
pecos_ownership
CORYELL COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
—
—
2024-08-16
current
tx_hhsc_directory
FOREST RIDGE POST ACUTE LLC
—
—
2024-08-16
current
tx_hhsc_directory
FOREST RIDGE POST ACUTE, LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-08-16
current
pecos_ownership
GARETZ, DAVID
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-08-16
current
pecos_ownership
GIBRALTAR TRUST
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-08-16
current
pecos_ownership
GURWITZ, SOLOMON
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-06-25
current
pecos_ownership
HAGINS, ELIZABETH
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-31
current
pecos_ownership
HAIDER, MUNAWAR
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2015-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
KAPLAN, ESTHER
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-06-25
current
pecos_ownership
KAPLAN, MORDECHAI
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-31
current
pecos_ownership
MAGNOLIA REALTY, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-08-16
current
pecos_ownership
MILLENNIAL ACQUISITIONS, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-08-16
current
pecos_ownership
MINDLE, ADAM
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-06-25
current
pecos_ownership
MONTGOMERY SKY TRUST
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-08-16
current
pecos_ownership
ONWUKEGWU, EDWIN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-08-21
current
pecos_ownership
OPCO CA SKILLED MGMT INC.
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-08-16
current
pecos_ownership
OPCO TEXAS SKILLED MGMT LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-08-16
current
pecos_ownership
OREGON REALTY, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-08-16
current
pecos_ownership
SCOOPER REALTY, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-08-16
current
pecos_ownership
UNGER, JEFFREY
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-06-25
current
pecos_ownership
WINDSOR SQUARE REALTY, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-08-16
current
pecos_ownership
DAVID BYROM
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2018-08-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID GARETZ
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-08-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
EDWIN ONWUKEGWU
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-08-21
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
HANSEN HUNTER LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-04-01
ended 2026-04-01
pecos_ownership
MUNAWAR HAIDER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2015-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 48439
acs median gross
0
$1,316
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48439
fmr
0
$1,427
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48439
acs median gross
1
$1,287
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48439
fmr
1
$1,473
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48439
acs median gross
2
$1,576
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48439
fmr
2
$1,723
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48439
acs median gross
3
$1,885
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48439
fmr
3
$2,273
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48439
acs median gross
4
$2,359
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48439
fmr
4
$2,815
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48439
acs median gross
5
$2,682
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48439
acs median gross
$1,547
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48439
acs recent mover gross
$1,700
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 76021
acs median gross
0
$1,243
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 76021
acs median gross
1
$1,368
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 76021
acs median gross
2
$1,718
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 76021
acs median gross
3
$2,135
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 76021
acs median gross
4
$2,837
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 76021
acs median gross
5
$2,646
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 76021
acs median gross
$1,502
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 76021
acs recent mover gross
$1,879
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 76021
payment standard 110
0
$1,661
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76021
payment standard 90
0
$1,359
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76021
safmr
0
$1,510
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76021
payment standard 110
1
$1,716
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76021
payment standard 90
1
$1,404
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76021
safmr
1
$1,560
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76021
payment standard 110
2
$2,002
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76021
payment standard 90
2
$1,638
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76021
safmr
2
$1,820
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76021
payment standard 110
3
$2,640
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76021
payment standard 90
3
$2,160
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76021
safmr
3
$2,400
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76021
payment standard 110
4
$3,267
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76021
payment standard 90
4
$2,673
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76021
safmr
4
$2,970
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.