Reads as: riskier than 15.5% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
LIFE CARE SERVICES LLC
58 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
MN median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
5.14
3.49
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.95
0.65
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
5.18
3.32
3.11
—
Weekday total
5.12
3.59
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
37.7
5.14
0.95
0.92
3.27
5.18
0.0%
2025Q3
92
40.4
4.54
0.79
0.82
2.92
4.52
0.0%
2025Q2
91
40.8
4.53
0.83
0.79
2.91
4.53
0.1%
2025Q1
90
42.4
4.38
0.89
0.68
2.81
4.39
0.7%
2024Q4
92
41.9
4.68
0.95
0.72
3.02
4.60
1.7%
2024Q3
92
41.1
4.71
0.90
0.80
3.02
4.63
5.0%
2024Q2
91
40.7
4.87
0.94
0.80
3.13
4.75
1.3%
2024Q1
91
39.9
5.06
1.02
0.81
3.23
4.97
1.8%
2023Q4
92
40.0
4.90
1.10
0.70
3.10
4.66
1.9%
2023Q3
92
37.9
5.08
1.06
0.79
3.23
4.92
0.7%
2023Q2
91
37.6
5.17
1.21
0.65
3.30
4.96
3.6%
2023Q1
90
36.7
5.29
1.20
0.69
3.40
5.16
5.3%
2022Q4
92
36.8
5.15
0.98
0.88
3.29
5.16
8.4%
2022Q3
92
36.1
5.07
0.64
1.19
3.25
4.87
14.7%
2022Q2
91
32.7
5.18
0.90
1.12
3.15
4.88
13.3%
2022Q1
90
35.4
4.54
0.81
0.94
2.80
4.38
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
4
C × 1D × 3
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2024-09-12
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2024-10-03
2024-09-12
Health
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
D
2024-10-03
2022-06-02
Health
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2022-06-29
2022-06-02
Health
F0730
Observe each nurse aide's job performance and give regular training.
C
2022-07-31
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
36
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
LCS MINNEAPOLIS LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2021-12-10
current
pecos_ownership
LCS TRILLIUM WOODS JV LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2021-12-10
current
pecos_ownership
AMEND-MARSHALL, JOSEPH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
BANK OF AMERICA CORP
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
BIRD, JOHN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
LAHEY, DANIEL
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
LIFE CARE SERVICES LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2015-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
LIFE CARE SERVICES LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-24
current
pecos_ownership
MCCARTHY PARTNERS, LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
MUJIR, IBRAHIM
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-02-15
current
pecos_ownership
MUJIR, IBRAHIM
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-21
current
pecos_ownership
PAIDER, SAMANTHA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-26
current
pecos_ownership
PAIDER, SAMANTHA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
SHAW, GELYNNA
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
UHLEMANN, BRIDGETTE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
VICTOR, JASON
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
LCS HOLDING COMPANY LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2021-12-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LIFE CARE COMPANIES LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2021-12-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LIFE CARE SERVICES COMMUNITIES, LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2021-12-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RCI LEGACY HOLDINGS LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
74%
2021-12-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
REDWOOD HOLDINGS, LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
74%
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
OAK INVESTMENT TRUST II
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
47%
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
OAK INVESTMENT TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
18%
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MPM SENIOR LIVING INVESTORS LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
15%
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LCS MANAGEMENT HOLDING COMPANY, LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
11%
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MCCARTHY GROUP LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
10%
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JASON VICTOR
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SAMANTHA PAIDER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
0%
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRIDGETTE UHLEMANN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DANIEL LAHEY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GELYNNA SHAW
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
IBRAHIM MUJIR
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-02-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
IBRAHIM MUJIR
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-21
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN BIRD
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOSEPH AMEND-MARSHALL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SAMANTHA PAIDER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-26
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
34
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 27053
acs median gross
0
$1,141
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27053
fmr
0
$1,242
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 27053
acs median gross
1
$1,293
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27053
fmr
1
$1,405
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 27053
acs median gross
2
$1,677
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27053
fmr
2
$1,709
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 27053
acs median gross
3
$1,963
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27053
fmr
3
$2,262
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 27053
acs median gross
4
$2,216
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27053
fmr
4
$2,531
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 27053
acs median gross
5
$1,999
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27053
acs median gross
$1,487
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27053
acs recent mover gross
$1,628
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 55446
acs median gross
1
$1,729
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 55446
acs median gross
2
$2,187
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 55446
acs median gross
3
$2,572
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 55446
acs median gross
4
$3,237
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 55446
acs median gross
$1,983
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 55446
acs recent mover gross
$2,568
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 55446
payment standard 110
0
$1,793
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55446
payment standard 90
0
$1,467
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55446
safmr
0
$1,630
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55446
payment standard 110
1
$2,024
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55446
payment standard 90
1
$1,656
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55446
safmr
1
$1,840
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55446
payment standard 110
2
$2,464
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55446
payment standard 90
2
$2,016
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55446
safmr
2
$2,240
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55446
payment standard 110
3
$3,256
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55446
payment standard 90
3
$2,664
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55446
safmr
3
$2,960
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55446
payment standard 110
4
$3,652
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55446
payment standard 90
4
$2,988
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55446
safmr
4
$3,320
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.