20625 NORTH LAKE PLEASANT ROAD, PEORIA, AZ 85382 · CCN 035111 · chain THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
Composite
38.9 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
128
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 38.9% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
3
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
18 chains
ENSIGN SERVICES INC
286 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
17 chains
BURNAM SOON
335 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
17 chains
KEETCH CHAD
283 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later lease_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
AZ median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.11
3.53
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.43
0.43
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.86
3.35
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.21
3.62
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
100.3
3.11
0.43
0.84
1.84
2.86
0.0%
2025Q3
92
108.1
3.21
0.38
0.85
1.98
2.92
0.0%
2025Q2
91
101.6
3.21
0.30
0.95
1.96
2.92
0.0%
2025Q1
90
101.5
3.21
0.41
0.90
1.90
3.02
0.0%
2024Q4
92
100.2
3.19
0.50
0.81
1.89
2.91
0.0%
2024Q3
92
99.3
3.25
0.48
0.80
1.98
2.95
0.0%
2024Q2
91
105.4
3.20
0.49
0.83
1.88
2.82
0.0%
2024Q1
91
110.4
3.25
0.36
1.03
1.86
2.83
7.7%
2023Q4
92
104.9
3.21
0.22
1.15
1.83
2.94
15.3%
2023Q3
92
99.3
2.88
0.31
1.01
1.56
2.60
11.0%
2023Q2
91
93.6
2.97
0.29
1.01
1.66
2.77
25.2%
2023Q1
90
103.5
3.07
0.44
1.05
1.58
2.74
27.0%
2022Q4
92
98.5
2.91
0.34
0.97
1.60
2.53
25.7%
2022Q3
92
102.1
3.49
0.27
1.17
2.05
3.11
28.4%
2022Q2
91
100.0
2.64
0.12
0.90
1.62
2.26
6.4%
2022Q1
90
95.5
3.07
0.04
1.12
1.91
2.74
6.6%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
21
D × 13E × 8
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-02-26
Health · complaint
F0628
Provide the required documentation or notification related to the resident's needs, appeal rights, or bed-hold policies.
E
2026-04-15
2026-02-26
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2026-04-15
2026-02-26
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2026-04-15
2026-02-26
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2026-04-15
2026-02-26
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2026-04-15
2026-02-26
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2026-04-15
2024-05-10
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
E
2024-06-24
2024-05-10
Health
F0582
Give residents notice of Medicaid/Medicare coverage and potential liability for services not covered.
D
2024-06-24
2024-05-10
Health
F0696
Provide appropriate care/assistance for a resident with a prosthesis.
D
2024-06-24
2024-05-10
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2024-06-24
2024-05-10
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2024-06-24
2024-01-17
Health · complaint
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
E
2024-03-01
2023-12-13
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2024-01-19
2023-12-13
Health · complaint
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2024-01-19
2023-01-26
Health
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2023-03-05
2023-01-26
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
E
2023-03-05
2023-01-26
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2023-03-05
2023-01-26
Health
F0685
Assist a resident in gaining access to vision and hearing services.
D
2023-03-05
2023-01-26
Health
F0725
Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift.
E
2023-03-05
2023-01-26
Health
F0757
Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs.
D
2023-03-05
2023-01-26
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
E
2023-03-05
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
19
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
BURNAM, SOON
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2015-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
ENSIGN SERVICES INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2015-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
FISCHBECK, COURTNEY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
HILL, SEAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2015-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
KEETCH, CHAD
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2011-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
NAGLE, CRAIG
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-15
current
pecos_ownership
PETERSON, FORREST
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
PORT, BARRY
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-08-06
current
pecos_ownership
SATO, AMI
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-09-09
current
pecos_ownership
SUN GROVE VILLAGE CARE CENTER, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
1995-10-23
current
pecos_ownership
BANDERA HEALTHCARE LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2015-03-25
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2006-09-25
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
FORREST PETERSON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2019-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AMI SATO
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-09-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHAD KEETCH
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2011-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
COURTNEY FISCHBECK
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CRAIG NAGLE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-05-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SEAN HILL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2015-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SOON BURNAM
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2015-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$1,863,416
—
$1,095,914
—
—
5
—
2023-12-31
$1,840,064
—
$993,203
—
$36,245
5
—
2022-12-31
$1,640,864
—
$1,050,046
—
—
5
—
2021-12-31
$1,546,709
—
$816,383
—
—
5
—
2020-12-31
$1,228,933
—
$723,968
—
$674
5
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 04013
acs median gross
0
$1,383
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04013
fmr
0
$1,457
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 04013
acs median gross
1
$1,453
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04013
fmr
1
$1,583
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 04013
acs median gross
2
$1,698
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04013
fmr
2
$1,839
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 04013
acs median gross
3
$2,027
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04013
fmr
3
$2,452
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 04013
acs median gross
4
$2,312
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04013
fmr
4
$2,720
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 04013
acs median gross
5
$2,632
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04013
acs median gross
$1,708
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04013
acs recent mover gross
$1,867
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85382
acs median gross
0
$1,395
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85382
acs median gross
1
$1,882
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85382
acs median gross
2
$1,910
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85382
acs median gross
3
$2,033
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85382
acs median gross
4
$2,717
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85382
acs median gross
$1,939
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85382
acs recent mover gross
$2,182
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 85382
payment standard 110
0
$1,859
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85382
payment standard 90
0
$1,521
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85382
safmr
0
$1,690
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85382
payment standard 110
1
$2,013
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85382
payment standard 90
1
$1,647
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85382
safmr
1
$1,830
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85382
payment standard 110
2
$2,343
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85382
payment standard 90
2
$1,917
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85382
safmr
2
$2,130
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85382
payment standard 110
3
$3,124
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85382
payment standard 90
3
$2,556
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85382
safmr
3
$2,840
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85382
payment standard 110
4
$3,465
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85382
payment standard 90
4
$2,835
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85382
safmr
4
$3,150
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.