Reads as: riskier than 81.3% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
2
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+35.1 vs natl
CASCADIA WASHINGTON OPERATIONS LLC
10 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
CASCADIA WASHINGTON OPERATIONS LLC
10 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
WA median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.59
3.70
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.88
0.62
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.22
3.51
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.73
3.79
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
78.3
3.59
0.88
0.72
1.99
3.22
3.3%
2025Q3
92
76.8
3.81
0.91
0.70
2.19
3.37
8.6%
2025Q2
91
74.2
3.90
0.89
0.88
2.14
3.37
4.1%
2025Q1
90
76.3
3.46
0.76
0.86
1.85
3.10
6.4%
2024Q4
92
71.0
3.25
0.61
0.89
1.76
2.99
5.2%
2024Q3
92
71.0
3.18
0.75
0.73
1.69
2.95
12.7%
2024Q2
91
70.8
3.36
0.72
0.81
1.82
2.98
16.8%
2024Q1
91
72.3
3.37
0.56
1.00
1.82
2.95
15.0%
2023Q4
92
71.8
3.57
0.57
1.03
1.97
3.05
11.7%
2023Q3
92
74.4
3.27
0.64
0.90
1.73
2.79
7.5%
2023Q2
91
60.9
3.64
0.81
1.12
1.71
3.02
5.7%
2023Q1
90
56.8
3.93
0.65
1.24
2.05
3.27
1.2%
2022Q4
92
53.6
3.81
0.56
1.33
1.91
3.25
6.1%
2022Q3
92
51.3
3.37
0.25
1.35
1.76
3.02
7.9%
2022Q2
91
42.2
3.16
0.21
1.60
1.34
2.57
0.0%
2022Q1
90
43.6
3.46
0.37
1.50
1.58
2.75
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
17
D × 13E × 3F × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-03-19
Health
F0553
Allow resident to participate in the development and implementation of his or her person-centered plan of care.
D
2026-04-06
2026-03-19
Health
F0578
Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.
E
2026-04-06
2026-03-19
Health
F0645
PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities
D
2026-04-06
2026-03-19
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2026-04-06
2026-03-19
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2026-04-06
2026-03-19
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2026-04-06
2025-04-24
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2025-05-23
2025-04-24
Health
F0740
Ensure each resident must receive and the facility must provide necessary behavioral health care and services.
D
2025-05-23
2025-04-24
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2025-05-23
2025-04-24
Health
F0804
Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature.
E
2025-05-23
2025-04-24
Health
F0909
Regularly inspect all bed frames, mattresses, and bed rails (if any) for safety; and all bed rails and mattresses must attach safely to the bed frame.
D
2025-05-23
2024-09-09
Health · complaint
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
D
2024-10-04
2024-06-07
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2024-06-28
2024-06-07
Health · complaint
F0806
Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food that accommodates resident allergies, intolerances, and preferences, as well as appealing options.
D
2024-06-28
2024-06-07
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2024-06-28
2024-06-07
Health
F0921
Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public.
D
2024-06-28
2023-09-22
Health · complaint
F0729
Verify that a nurse aide has been trained; and if they haven't worked as a nurse aide for 2 years, receive retraining.
E
2023-10-20
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
22
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
CASCADIA HC GROUP LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-06-05
current
pecos_ownership
CASCADIA HEALTHCARE LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
CASCADIA HOLDCO LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-06-05
current
pecos_ownership
CASCADIA SERVICES LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-21
current
pecos_ownership
CASCADIA WASHINGTON OPERATIONS LLC
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
DINH, DIEU
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-06-24
current
pecos_ownership
DINH, DIEU
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-26
current
pecos_ownership
HAMMOND, OWEN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
LAFORTE, STEPHEN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-06-05
current
pecos_ownership
NELSON, TIMOTHY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-06-05
current
pecos_ownership
RILEY, CRAIG
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-26
current
pecos_ownership
RILEY, CRAIG
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
TIMBERLINE OHI TENANT LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-06-05
current
pecos_ownership
WHITE OAK HEALTHCARE FINANCE LLC
5% OR GREATER SECURITY INTEREST
—
2022-08-11
current
pecos_ownership
OWEN HAMMOND
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
33%
2021-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEPHEN LAFORTE
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
33%
2025-06-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TIMOTHY NELSON
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
33%
2025-06-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CASCADIA HEALTHCARE LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CRAIG RILEY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CRAIG RILEY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-26
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DIEU DINH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-06-24
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DIEU DINH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-26
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$711,512
—
—
$10,647
$133,624
2
—
2023-12-31
$650,041
—
—
$12,852
$120,007
2
—
2022-12-31
$716,190
—
—
$10,728
$117,676
2
—
2021-11-30
$334,760
—
—
—
$34,433
5
—
2020-12-31
$646,563
—
—
—
$68,979
5
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 53011
acs median gross
0
$1,400
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 53011
fmr
0
$1,570
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 53011
acs median gross
1
$1,488
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 53011
fmr
1
$1,677
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 53011
acs median gross
2
$1,670
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 53011
fmr
2
$1,922
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 53011
acs median gross
3
$2,115
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 53011
fmr
3
$2,619
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 53011
acs median gross
4
$2,604
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 53011
fmr
4
$3,109
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 53011
acs median gross
5
$2,213
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 53011
acs median gross
$1,748
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 53011
acs recent mover gross
$1,868
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 98664
acs median gross
0
$1,205
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 98664
acs median gross
1
$1,585
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 98664
acs median gross
2
$1,562
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 98664
acs median gross
3
$1,968
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 98664
acs median gross
4
$2,487
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 98664
acs median gross
$1,677
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 98664
acs recent mover gross
$1,683
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 98664
payment standard 110
0
$1,672
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 98664
payment standard 90
0
$1,368
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 98664
safmr
0
$1,520
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 98664
payment standard 110
1
$1,782
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 98664
payment standard 90
1
$1,458
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 98664
safmr
1
$1,620
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 98664
payment standard 110
2
$2,046
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 98664
payment standard 90
2
$1,674
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 98664
safmr
2
$1,860
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 98664
payment standard 110
3
$2,783
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 98664
payment standard 90
3
$2,277
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 98664
safmr
3
$2,530
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 98664
payment standard 110
4
$3,311
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 98664
payment standard 90
4
$2,709
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 98664
safmr
4
$3,010
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.