Reads as: riskier than 53.3% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
15
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
MO median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
1.70
2.41
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.13
0.25
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
1.64
2.24
3.11
—
Weekday total
1.72
2.49
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
112.0
1.70
0.13
0.50
1.07
1.64
1.2%
2025Q3
92
117.3
1.88
0.11
0.49
1.29
1.62
0.0%
2025Q2
91
113.8
1.84
0.06
0.53
1.25
1.54
0.0%
2025Q1
90
108.4
1.84
0.05
0.61
1.18
1.61
0.0%
2024Q4
92
108.5
1.84
0.03
0.55
1.27
1.61
0.0%
2024Q3
92
110.6
2.02
0.04
0.57
1.41
1.76
0.0%
2024Q2
91
112.8
1.93
0.04
0.55
1.33
1.67
0.0%
2024Q1
91
111.9
1.85
0.07
0.63
1.15
1.55
0.0%
2023Q4
92
114.4
1.94
0.10
0.63
1.20
1.66
0.0%
2023Q3
92
111.2
1.94
0.14
0.57
1.23
1.75
0.0%
2023Q2
91
103.8
2.01
0.15
0.54
1.31
1.68
0.0%
2023Q1
90
100.8
2.23
0.12
0.58
1.53
1.71
0.0%
2022Q4
92
99.2
2.58
0.17
0.66
1.75
2.06
0.0%
2022Q3
92
98.6
2.12
0.20
0.63
1.29
1.62
0.0%
2022Q2
91
93.5
2.25
0.20
0.61
1.44
1.68
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
21
D × 13E × 5F × 3
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-04-29
Health · complaint
F0691
Provide appropriate colostomy, urostomy, or ileostomy care/services for a resident who requires such services.
D
—
2026-03-26
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2026-04-10
2026-03-26
Health · complaint
F0691
Provide appropriate colostomy, urostomy, or ileostomy care/services for a resident who requires such services.
D
—
2025-12-12
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2026-01-15
2025-12-12
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
E
2026-01-15
2025-03-31
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
D
2025-05-15
2025-03-31
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2025-05-15
2025-03-31
Health
F0700
Try different approaches before using a bed rail. If a bed rail is needed, the facility must (1) assess a resident for safety risk; (2) review these risks and benefits with the resident/representative; (3) get informed consent; and (4) Correctly install and maintain the bed rail.
E
2025-05-15
2025-03-31
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2025-05-15
2025-03-31
Health
F0921
Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public.
F
2025-05-15
2023-10-26
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2023-12-10
2023-10-26
Health
F0645
PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities
D
2023-12-10
2023-10-26
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2023-12-10
2023-10-26
Health
F0675
Honor each resident's preferences, choices, values and beliefs.
D
2023-12-10
2023-10-26
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2023-12-10
2023-10-26
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2023-12-10
2020-03-13
Health
F0607
Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft.
D
2020-04-08
2020-03-13
Health
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
D
2020-04-23
2020-03-13
Health
F0838
Conduct and document a facility-wide assessment to determine what resources are necessary to care for residents competently during both day-to-day operations (including nights and weekends) and emergencies.
E
2020-04-08
2020-03-13
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2020-04-23
2020-03-13
Health
F0919
Make sure that a working call system is available in each resident's bathroom and bathing area.
E
2020-04-23
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
16
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
JAMES ESTES
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
1997-09-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHELE BROWN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
100%
2021-02-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
REGIONS BANK
5% OR GREATER SECURITY INTEREST
79%
2013-08-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NORTHPORT HEALTH SERVICES INC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
75%
1997-09-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KARLI VANBIBBER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
33%
2023-09-25
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LYNN RASCO
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
33%
2022-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHELLE ALDANA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
33%
2019-12-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JAMES ESTES
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
25%
2003-12-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRANDON AGEE
OTHER
22%
2022-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PHILLIP LONG
OTHER
22%
2022-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JAMES N ESTES JR FAMILY DYNASTY TR NO 1
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
7%
2020-12-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JENNIFER E AGEE FAMILY DYNASTY TR NO 1
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
7%
2020-12-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JAMES NORMAN ESTES JR TR
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
4%
1997-09-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JENNIFER LEE ESTES TR 031093
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
4%
1997-09-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NHS MANAGEMENT LLC
OTHER
0%
2007-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PHILLIP LONG
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2019-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$1,498,165
—
$822,765
$513,005
—
3
—
2023-12-31
$1,421,643
—
$721,686
$517,053
—
3
—
2022-12-31
$1,253,161
—
$614,466
$483,508
—
3
—
2021-12-31
$1,201,630
—
$559,392
$480,601
—
3
—
2020-12-31
$1,250,804
—
$545,978
$503,056
—
3
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
34
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 29097
acs median gross
0
$756
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29097
fmr
0
$760
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29097
acs median gross
1
$667
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29097
fmr
1
$765
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29097
acs median gross
2
$965
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29097
fmr
2
$947
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29097
acs median gross
3
$1,203
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29097
fmr
3
$1,237
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29097
acs median gross
4
$1,321
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29097
fmr
4
$1,285
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29097
acs median gross
$973
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29097
acs recent mover gross
$946
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 64836
acs median gross
0
$773
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 64836
acs median gross
1
$385
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 64836
acs median gross
2
$928
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 64836
acs median gross
3
$1,124
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 64836
acs median gross
4
$1,340
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 64836
acs median gross
$968
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 64836
acs recent mover gross
$989
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 64836
payment standard 110
0
$847
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64836
payment standard 90
0
$693
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64836
safmr
0
$770
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64836
payment standard 110
1
$858
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64836
payment standard 90
1
$702
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64836
safmr
1
$780
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64836
payment standard 110
2
$1,056
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64836
payment standard 90
2
$864
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64836
safmr
2
$960
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64836
payment standard 110
3
$1,375
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64836
payment standard 90
3
$1,125
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64836
safmr
3
$1,250
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64836
payment standard 110
4
$1,430
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64836
payment standard 90
4
$1,170
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64836
safmr
4
$1,300
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.