Reads as: riskier than 67.6% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
18
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+26.2 vs natl
THREADGILL SHARLYN
10 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+26.2 vs natl
THREADGILL MORGAN
10 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+26.2 vs natl
THREADGILL FORREST
10 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+23.7 vs natl
THOMPSON JOHNNY
74 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+22.5 vs natl
MARTEL MICHAEL
8 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
THREADGILL FORREST
10 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
THREADGILL SHARLYN
10 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
THREADGILL MORGAN
10 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
MARTEL MICHAEL
8 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
70% fined
THREADGILL SHARLYN
10 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
70% fined
THREADGILL FORREST
10 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
70% fined
THREADGILL MORGAN
10 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
63% fined
MARTEL MICHAEL
8 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
50% fined
THE SMITHERS MANAGEMENT TRUST
6 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
45% fined
THOMPSON JOHNNY
74 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
COMPTON CHARLES
5 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
COMPTON JAMES
5 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
COMPTON KRIS
5 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
TX median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.69
2.67
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.03
0.24
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.63
2.56
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.71
2.72
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
89.7
2.69
0.03
0.98
1.68
2.63
9.0%
2025Q3
92
92.0
2.80
0.07
1.00
1.73
2.66
11.7%
2025Q2
91
89.6
2.72
0.04
0.97
1.71
2.52
15.1%
2025Q1
90
90.7
2.80
0.07
1.05
1.68
2.62
12.9%
2024Q4
92
89.9
3.10
0.04
1.21
1.84
2.72
14.9%
2024Q3
92
95.5
3.17
0.08
0.93
2.16
2.96
13.7%
2024Q2
91
91.9
2.94
0.04
1.01
1.90
2.71
21.4%
2024Q1
91
95.4
2.87
0.05
0.95
1.87
2.81
35.8%
2023Q4
92
94.9
2.89
0.16
0.90
1.83
2.67
24.2%
2023Q3
92
102.3
2.70
0.10
0.81
1.79
2.58
26.5%
2023Q2
91
94.5
2.76
0.06
0.84
1.86
2.66
17.3%
2023Q1
90
93.1
2.99
0.12
1.09
1.78
2.76
14.3%
2022Q4
92
90.8
2.80
0.09
0.92
1.79
2.69
6.8%
2022Q3
92
92.6
2.86
0.13
0.92
1.80
2.61
0.0%
2022Q2
91
92.1
2.63
0.09
0.67
1.87
2.55
0.0%
2022Q1
90
89.3
2.45
0.06
0.70
1.69
2.52
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed.
D
2026-04-10
2026-03-26
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2026-04-10
2026-03-26
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2026-04-10
2025-01-15
Health
F0636
Assess the resident completely in a timely manner when first admitted, and then periodically, at least every 12 months.
D
2025-01-31
2025-01-15
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2025-01-31
2023-12-12
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
J
2024-01-05
2023-12-12
Health · complaint
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2024-01-05
2023-11-17
Health
F0644
Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed.
D
2023-12-15
2023-11-17
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
E
2023-12-15
2023-10-06
Health · complaint
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2023-10-26
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
26
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
BROAD RIVER HEALTHCARE, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
COMPTON, CHARLES
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
—
2021-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
COMPTON, JAMES
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
COMPTON, KRIS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
HARRIS LT INVESTMENTS, LLC
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
—
2021-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
MARTEL HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
MARTEL, MICHAEL
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
—
2021-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
RAJAN, KAVITHA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2017-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
ROBERTSON, NATALIE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
ROLLINGBROOK REHAB LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
ROLLINGBROOK REHAB, LLC
—
—
2024-05-01
current
tx_hhsc_directory
THE SMITHERS MANAGEMENT TRUST
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
—
2021-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
THOMPSON, JOHNNY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
THREADGILL, FORREST
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-26
current
pecos_ownership
THREADGILL, MORGAN
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-26
current
pecos_ownership
THREADGILL, SHARLYN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
WEST WHARTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
—
—
2024-05-01
current
tx_hhsc_directory
WEST WHARTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2021-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL MARTEL
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
33%
2021-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHARLES COMPTON
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
8%
2021-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JAMES COMPTON
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
8%
2021-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KRIS COMPTON
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
8%
2021-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHNNY THOMPSON
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2024-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KAVITHA RAJAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2017-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NATALIE ROBERTSON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHARLYN THREADGILL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
1
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2020-12-31
$510,801
—
—
—
—
1
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 48201
acs median gross
0
$1,177
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48201
fmr
0
$1,280
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48201
acs median gross
1
$1,196
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48201
fmr
1
$1,323
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48201
acs median gross
2
$1,425
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48201
fmr
2
$1,573
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48201
acs median gross
3
$1,764
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48201
fmr
3
$2,116
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48201
acs median gross
4
$2,148
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48201
fmr
4
$2,639
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48201
acs median gross
5
$2,339
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48201
acs median gross
$1,401
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48201
acs recent mover gross
$1,495
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77521
acs median gross
0
$1,296
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77521
acs median gross
1
$1,144
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77521
acs median gross
2
$1,338
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77521
acs median gross
3
$1,801
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77521
acs median gross
4
$2,490
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77521
acs median gross
$1,390
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77521
acs recent mover gross
$1,343
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 77521
payment standard 110
0
$1,375
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77521
payment standard 90
0
$1,125
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77521
safmr
0
$1,250
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77521
payment standard 110
1
$1,419
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77521
payment standard 90
1
$1,161
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77521
safmr
1
$1,290
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77521
payment standard 110
2
$1,694
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77521
payment standard 90
2
$1,386
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77521
safmr
2
$1,540
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77521
payment standard 110
3
$2,277
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77521
payment standard 90
3
$1,863
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77521
safmr
3
$2,070
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77521
payment standard 110
4
$2,838
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77521
payment standard 90
4
$2,322
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77521
safmr
4
$2,580
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.