Reads as: riskier than 99.0% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
8
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+22.5 vs natl
FOURSQUARE TEXAS 16 LLC
7 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+22.5 vs natl
ROCKETT LP
7 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+22.5 vs natl
RMM 5X5 TRUST
7 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+22.5 vs natl
DWM 5X5 TRUST
7 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+21.7 vs natl
FAIRBROOK PARTNERS LP
10 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
MILLER JOHN
18 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
MILLER RICHARD
13 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
MILLER DAVID
13 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
15
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
TX median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.41
2.67
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.30
0.24
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.19
2.56
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.50
2.72
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
63.4
2.41
0.30
0.70
1.41
2.19
0.0%
2025Q3
92
61.6
2.37
0.19
0.77
1.40
2.26
0.0%
2025Q2
91
49.1
2.47
0.18
0.80
1.48
2.32
0.0%
2025Q1
90
46.3
2.42
0.13
0.86
1.43
2.32
0.0%
2024Q3
92
43.2
2.67
0.22
0.85
1.61
2.50
12.1%
2024Q2
91
42.0
2.65
0.24
0.87
1.54
2.49
14.4%
2024Q1
91
46.7
2.52
0.11
0.90
1.51
2.29
12.4%
2023Q4
92
47.5
2.50
0.10
0.88
1.52
2.40
6.5%
2023Q3
92
47.7
2.34
0.11
0.83
1.41
2.25
5.4%
2023Q2
91
50.4
2.02
0.10
0.78
1.15
1.91
4.7%
2023Q1
90
44.8
2.25
0.13
0.81
1.30
2.15
2.8%
2022Q4
92
46.9
2.26
0.17
0.81
1.28
2.18
1.8%
2022Q3
92
49.5
2.25
0.20
0.77
1.29
2.23
3.0%
2022Q2
91
50.0
2.14
0.21
0.71
1.22
2.06
0.3%
2022Q1
90
51.2
2.09
0.24
0.65
1.20
2.08
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2026-02-10
2024-09-19
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2024-10-09
2024-09-19
Health
F0700
Try different approaches before using a bed rail. If a bed rail is needed, the facility must (1) assess a resident for safety risk; (2) review these risks and benefits with the resident/representative; (3) get informed consent; and (4) Correctly install and maintain the bed rail.
E
2024-10-07
2024-09-19
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2024-10-08
2024-09-19
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
E
2024-10-07
2024-09-19
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2024-09-20
2024-09-19
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2024-09-26
2024-05-06
Health · complaint
F0602
Protect each resident from the wrongful use of the resident's belongings or money.
D
2024-05-08
2024-03-19
Health · complaint
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
J
2024-03-28
2024-03-19
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
J
2024-03-21
2024-03-19
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
J
2024-03-28
2024-03-19
Health · complaint
F0770
Provide timely, quality laboratory services/tests to meet the needs of residents.
J
2024-03-28
2023-07-28
Health · complaint
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
E
2023-08-23
2023-07-28
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2023-08-23
2022-06-09
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
E
2022-07-10
2022-06-09
Health
F0732
Post nurse staffing information every day.
D
2022-06-22
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
47
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
NOCONA HOSPITAL DISTRICT
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2024-12-30
current
pecos_ownership
ADM TRUST
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-30
current
pecos_ownership
CAMPBELL, JOHN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-30
current
pecos_ownership
CAMPBELL, KENNETH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-30
current
pecos_ownership
DAVID W MILLER GS TRUST
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-13
current
pecos_ownership
DAVID W MILLER GS TRUST
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-30
current
pecos_ownership
DWM 5X5 TRUST
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
—
2024-12-30
current
pecos_ownership
EARHART, JAMES
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-30
current
pecos_ownership
FAIRBROOK PARTNERS, LP
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
—
2024-12-30
current
pecos_ownership
FOURSQUARE TEXAS 16 LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-30
current
pecos_ownership
FOURSQUARE TEXAS 16 LLC
—
—
2024-12-30
current
tx_hhsc_directory
FOURSQUARE TEXAS 16 LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-13
current
pecos_ownership
JEC GS TRUST
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-30
current
pecos_ownership
JEC GS TRUST
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-13
current
pecos_ownership
JEM 5X5 TRUST
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-30
current
pecos_ownership
JOHN E MILLER GS TRUST
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-30
current
pecos_ownership
KINGSBURY CAPITAL LLC SERIES F
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-30
current
pecos_ownership
KJC GS TRUST
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-30
current
pecos_ownership
LEWIS, SHANE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-30
current
pecos_ownership
LION PLAZA LP
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-30
current
pecos_ownership
LION PLAZA LP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-13
current
pecos_ownership
MEEKINS, GREG
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-12-30
current
pecos_ownership
MILLER, DAVID
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-04
current
pecos_ownership
MILLER, DON
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
—
2024-12-30
current
pecos_ownership
MILLER, JOHN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-30
current
pecos_ownership
MILLER, RICHARD
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-30
current
pecos_ownership
MNH-INV SERIES LLC SERIES D
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-13
current
pecos_ownership
MNH-INV SERIES LLC SERIES D
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-30
current
pecos_ownership
MONTAGUE NH, LP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-30
current
pecos_ownership
NOCONA HOSPITAL DISTRICT
—
—
2024-12-30
current
tx_hhsc_directory
PETERS, ROBIN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-30
current
pecos_ownership
RICHARD M MILLER GS TRUST
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-30
current
pecos_ownership
RIVERTON CAPITAL LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-30
current
pecos_ownership
RMM 5X5 TRUST
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
—
2024-12-30
current
pecos_ownership
ROCKETT, LP
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
—
2024-12-30
current
pecos_ownership
SDL GS 5X5 TRUST
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-30
current
pecos_ownership
WHITNEY NH REALTY,LTD
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
—
2024-12-30
current
pecos_ownership
DAVID MILLER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-04
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DON MILLER
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
—
2024-12-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GREG MEEKINS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-12-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JAMES EARHART
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN CAMPBELL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN MILLER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KENNETH CAMPBELL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RICHARD MILLER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBIN PETERS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHANE LEWIS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
3
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-29
$503,076
—
$503,076
—
—
1
—
2021-12-31
$291,900
—
$291,900
—
—
1
—
2020-12-31
$339,459
—
$339,459
—
—
1
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
32
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 48217
acs median gross
0
$737
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48217
fmr
0
$705
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48217
acs median gross
1
$733
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48217
fmr
1
$802
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48217
acs median gross
2
$934
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48217
fmr
2
$1,023
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48217
acs median gross
3
$1,313
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48217
fmr
3
$1,397
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48217
acs median gross
4
$1,132
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48217
fmr
4
$1,716
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48217
acs median gross
$946
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48217
acs recent mover gross
$1,225
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 76692
acs median gross
1
$764
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 76692
acs median gross
2
$868
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 76692
acs median gross
3
$1,333
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 76692
acs median gross
$877
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 76692
acs recent mover gross
$1,045
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 76692
payment standard 110
0
$759
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76692
payment standard 90
0
$621
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76692
safmr
0
$690
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76692
payment standard 110
1
$858
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76692
payment standard 90
1
$702
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76692
safmr
1
$780
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76692
payment standard 110
2
$1,100
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76692
payment standard 90
2
$900
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76692
safmr
2
$1,000
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76692
payment standard 110
3
$1,507
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76692
payment standard 90
3
$1,233
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76692
safmr
3
$1,370
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76692
payment standard 110
4
$1,848
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76692
payment standard 90
4
$1,512
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76692
safmr
4
$1,680
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.