7970 NORTH LA CANADA DRIVE, TUCSON, AZ 85704 · CCN 035189 · chain THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
Composite
53.0 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
128
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 53.0% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
3
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
18 chains
ENSIGN SERVICES INC
286 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
17 chains
BURNAM SOON
335 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
17 chains
KEETCH CHAD
283 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
AZ median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.83
3.53
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.13
0.43
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.68
3.35
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.89
3.62
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
99.0
2.83
0.13
0.81
1.89
2.68
6.6%
2025Q3
92
99.1
2.97
0.12
0.87
1.97
2.73
3.8%
2025Q2
91
93.5
2.90
0.11
0.87
1.92
2.67
0.0%
2025Q1
90
96.0
2.83
0.13
0.80
1.91
2.63
6.6%
2024Q4
92
92.0
2.88
0.10
0.87
1.91
2.65
4.1%
2024Q3
92
90.2
3.06
0.04
0.97
2.05
2.83
3.2%
2024Q2
91
90.9
3.02
0.10
0.96
1.96
2.85
15.0%
2024Q1
91
92.1
2.95
0.12
0.86
1.97
2.83
17.1%
2023Q4
92
90.3
2.84
0.14
0.88
1.83
2.73
16.4%
2023Q3
92
93.2
2.37
0.06
0.94
1.37
2.19
4.0%
2023Q2
91
92.5
2.49
0.07
0.91
1.50
2.23
3.2%
2023Q1
90
96.0
2.54
0.06
0.89
1.59
2.37
8.2%
2022Q4
92
90.6
2.32
0.09
0.88
1.35
2.23
4.1%
2022Q3
92
92.3
2.74
0.11
0.86
1.77
2.52
7.7%
2022Q2
91
88.5
1.96
0.15
0.78
1.02
1.88
20.4%
2022Q1
90
86.8
1.81
0.20
0.76
0.85
1.71
11.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
E
2026-03-30
2026-03-05
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2026-03-30
2026-01-21
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
G
2026-02-02
2026-01-21
Health · complaint
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
G
2026-02-06
2024-02-02
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2024-03-22
2024-02-02
Health
F0732
Post nurse staffing information every day.
D
2024-03-22
2022-10-14
Health
F0582
Give residents notice of Medicaid/Medicare coverage and potential liability for services not covered.
D
2022-11-28
2022-10-14
Health
F0645
PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities
E
2022-11-28
2022-10-14
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2022-11-28
2022-10-14
Health
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
D
2022-11-28
2022-10-14
Health
F0732
Post nurse staffing information every day.
B
2022-11-28
2022-10-14
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2022-11-28
2021-10-07
Health
F0552
Ensure that residents are fully informed and understand their health status, care and treatments.
D
2021-11-12
2021-10-07
Health
F0558
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
D
2021-11-12
2021-10-07
Health
F0645
PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities
D
2021-11-12
2021-10-07
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2021-11-12
2021-10-07
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2021-11-12
2021-10-07
Health
F0757
Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs.
E
2021-11-12
2021-10-07
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2021-11-12
2021-10-07
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2021-11-12
2021-10-07
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2021-11-12
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
25
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
BURNAM, SOON
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2015-03-25
current
pecos_ownership
EAGAR, ROBERT
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-06-26
current
pecos_ownership
EAGAR, ROBERT
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2015-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
ENSIGN SERVICES INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2015-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
INVASERV LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2015-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
JATOI, MANSOOR
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2020-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
JATOI, MANSOOR
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-06-23
current
pecos_ownership
JONES, CHRISTINE
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2019-03-26
current
pecos_ownership
KEETCH, CHAD
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2011-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
LA CANADA ASSOCIATES (LCA), LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2015-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
NURSA INC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2015-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
PETERSON, FORREST
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
PORT, BARRY
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-06-23
current
pecos_ownership
SATO, AMI
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-09-09
current
pecos_ownership
BANDERA HEALTHCARE LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2015-03-25
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2006-09-25
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AMI SATO
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-09-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHAD KEETCH
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2011-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHRISTINE JONES
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2019-03-26
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
FORREST PETERSON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MANSOOR JATOI
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-06-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MANSOOR JATOI
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2020-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERT EAGAR
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2015-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERT EAGAR
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-06-26
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SOON BURNAM
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2015-03-25
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$1,506,567
—
$965,517
—
—
5
—
2023-12-31
$1,654,704
—
$801,143
—
$41,085
5
—
2022-12-31
$1,306,433
—
$829,896
—
—
5
—
2021-12-31
$1,305,046
—
$629,461
—
—
5
—
2020-12-31
$1,168,876
—
$580,033
—
$7,836
5
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 04019
acs median gross
0
$864
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04019
fmr
0
$967
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 04019
acs median gross
1
$1,011
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04019
fmr
1
$1,081
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 04019
acs median gross
2
$1,275
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04019
fmr
2
$1,402
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 04019
acs median gross
3
$1,647
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04019
fmr
3
$1,950
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 04019
acs median gross
4
$1,814
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04019
fmr
4
$2,245
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 04019
acs median gross
5
$2,356
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04019
acs median gross
$1,212
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04019
acs recent mover gross
$1,386
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85704
acs median gross
0
$1,173
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85704
acs median gross
1
$1,272
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85704
acs median gross
2
$1,630
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85704
acs median gross
3
$1,973
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85704
acs median gross
4
$2,668
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85704
acs median gross
5
$2,716
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85704
acs median gross
$1,561
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85704
acs recent mover gross
$1,698
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 85704
payment standard 110
0
$1,254
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85704
payment standard 90
0
$1,026
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85704
safmr
0
$1,140
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85704
payment standard 110
1
$1,397
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85704
payment standard 90
1
$1,143
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85704
safmr
1
$1,270
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85704
payment standard 110
2
$1,815
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85704
payment standard 90
2
$1,485
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85704
safmr
2
$1,650
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85704
payment standard 110
3
$2,519
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85704
payment standard 90
3
$2,061
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85704
safmr
3
$2,290
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85704
payment standard 110
4
$2,904
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85704
payment standard 90
4
$2,376
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85704
safmr
4
$2,640
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.