Reads as: riskier than 72.5% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
8
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
47 chains
FORVIS MAZARS LLP
251 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+24.9 vs natl
DOERHOFF ERIC
12 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+23.1 vs natl
BRIDGE REHABILITATION INC
12 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+23.1 vs natl
ELDERCARE MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
12 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+23.1 vs natl
MILLER BETH
12 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+23.1 vs natl
THAYER JEANNE
12 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+20.5 vs natl
BUSEY CORPORATION
8 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
WIPFLI LLP
67 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
MO median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.23
2.41
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.24
0.25
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.05
2.24
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.31
2.49
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
58.9
2.23
0.24
0.45
1.55
2.05
0.0%
2025Q3
92
59.2
2.31
0.26
0.53
1.52
2.07
0.0%
2025Q2
91
56.8
2.54
0.28
0.49
1.76
2.26
0.0%
2025Q1
90
58.4
2.47
0.31
0.47
1.69
2.22
0.0%
2024Q4
92
58.1
2.62
0.30
0.54
1.79
2.27
0.2%
2024Q3
92
60.3
2.21
0.27
0.46
1.49
1.98
2.3%
2024Q2
91
64.0
2.17
0.16
0.59
1.42
2.01
0.0%
2024Q1
91
62.8
2.20
0.18
0.64
1.38
2.16
0.3%
2023Q4
92
61.3
2.23
0.17
0.68
1.38
2.05
0.2%
2023Q3
92
57.1
2.29
0.22
0.63
1.44
2.06
1.2%
2023Q2
91
62.2
1.96
0.22
0.36
1.37
1.87
0.0%
2023Q1
90
56.7
2.11
0.29
0.34
1.48
1.96
0.0%
2022Q4
92
54.1
2.02
0.35
0.40
1.27
1.98
0.0%
2022Q3
92
55.4
2.67
0.40
0.33
1.94
2.35
0.0%
2022Q2
91
55.4
2.82
0.54
0.21
2.07
2.35
0.0%
2022Q1
90
49.3
1.64
0.52
0.25
0.87
1.38
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
7
D × 1E × 5G × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-04-14
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
G
2025-05-15
2023-06-02
Health
F0637
Assess the resident when there is a significant change in condition
D
2023-07-26
2023-06-02
Health
F0655
Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted
E
2023-07-26
2023-06-02
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
E
2023-07-26
2023-06-02
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
E
2023-07-26
2023-06-02
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2023-07-26
2020-09-18
Health
F0568
Properly hold, secure, and manage each resident's personal money which is deposited with the nursing home.
E
2020-10-31
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
25
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
LIERMAN FAMILY CO IX
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
LIERMAN FAMILY CO IX
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
LIERMAN, MARK
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2021-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
BRIDGE REHABILITATION INC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
BRIDGE REHABILITATION INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-22
current
pecos_ownership
BUSEY CORPORATION
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-09-10
current
pecos_ownership
DOERHOFF, ERIC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
ELDERCARE MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2008-03-12
current
pecos_ownership
ELDERCARE MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-22
current
pecos_ownership
FORVIS MAZARS LLP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2016-01-25
current
pecos_ownership
LIERMAN FAMILY CO IX, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2008-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
MILLER, BETH
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2023-01-17
current
pecos_ownership
SMITH, RICHARD
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-05-15
current
pecos_ownership
THAYER, JEANNE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
WEST, JAMIE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
WIPFLI LLP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
LIERMAN FAMILY CO IX
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
MARK LIERMAN
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2021-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ERIC DOERHOFF
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
50%
2021-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LIERMAN FAMILY CO IX
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
25%
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
LIERMAN FAMILY CO IX
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
25%
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
BETH MILLER
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2023-01-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JAMIE WEST
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JEANNE THAYER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RICHARD SMITH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-05-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$890,345
$243,230
$260,695
$285,956
$12,634
4
propco
2023-12-31
$523,675
$230,707
$220,119
—
$12,361
3
propco
2022-12-31
$485,624
$258,294
$227,330
—
—
2
propco
2021-12-31
$572,385
$302,483
$269,902
—
—
8
propco
2020-12-31
$574,051
$330,736
$243,315
—
—
8
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
33
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 29117
acs median gross
0
$3,501
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29117
fmr
0
$660
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29117
acs median gross
1
$476
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29117
fmr
1
$677
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29117
acs median gross
2
$768
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29117
fmr
2
$888
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29117
acs median gross
3
$865
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29117
fmr
3
$1,147
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29117
acs median gross
4
$1,028
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29117
fmr
4
$1,331
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29117
acs median gross
$768
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29117
acs recent mover gross
$942
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 64601
acs median gross
0
$3,501
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 64601
acs median gross
1
$473
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 64601
acs median gross
2
$771
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 64601
acs median gross
3
$878
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 64601
acs median gross
$769
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 64601
acs recent mover gross
$972
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 64601
payment standard 110
0
$737
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64601
payment standard 90
0
$603
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64601
safmr
0
$670
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64601
payment standard 110
1
$759
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64601
payment standard 90
1
$621
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64601
safmr
1
$690
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64601
payment standard 110
2
$990
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64601
payment standard 90
2
$810
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64601
safmr
2
$900
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64601
payment standard 110
3
$1,276
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64601
payment standard 90
3
$1,044
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64601
safmr
3
$1,160
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64601
payment standard 110
4
$1,485
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64601
payment standard 90
4
$1,215
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 64601
safmr
4
$1,350
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.