Composite
46.1 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| financial risk | 84.8 | 71.6 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 19.57 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 55.3 | 45.4 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 12.76 | in index |
| billing conduct | 31.6 | 32.3 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 7.29 | in index |
| chow risk | 49.8 | 47.9 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 5.75 | in index |
| staffing risk | 8.8 | 8.9 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 1.69 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 32.3 | B | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 25.0 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 70.9 | D | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 71.6 | D | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 5.4 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 45.4 | C | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 8.9 | A | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 76.4 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 56.4 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 64.6 | C | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 72.3 | D | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 45.3 | C | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 45.3 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 8.9 | A | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 8.9 | A | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chain size (log) | 5.31 | +0.73 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| Occupancy | 0.89 | -0.56 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 4.44 | -0.28 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 17.00 | +0.24 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chain size (log) | 5.31 | -1.89 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 17.00 | -1.72 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| Occupancy | 0.89 | -0.60 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 4.44 | -0.52 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Staffing trend, last 4 quarters | 0.75 | +0.32 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | WA median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 4.44 | 3.70 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.70 | 0.62 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 4.15 | 3.51 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 4.55 | 3.79 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 90.9 | 4.44 | 0.70 | 0.89 | 2.85 | 4.15 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 89.5 | 4.30 | 0.66 | 0.82 | 2.82 | 3.96 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 94.5 | 4.15 | 0.52 | 0.85 | 2.78 | 3.91 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 89.2 | 3.77 | 0.52 | 0.66 | 2.59 | 3.50 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 86.6 | 3.69 | 0.53 | 0.62 | 2.54 | 3.45 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 89.4 | 3.49 | 0.52 | 0.59 | 2.39 | 3.16 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 88.5 | 3.41 | 0.42 | 0.70 | 2.29 | 3.09 | 0.6% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 79.3 | 3.56 | 0.44 | 0.77 | 2.35 | 3.20 | 6.7% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 71.4 | 3.54 | 0.45 | 0.72 | 2.37 | 3.17 | 13.7% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 70.4 | 3.25 | 0.29 | 0.80 | 2.15 | 2.89 | 18.8% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 68.0 | 3.43 | 0.42 | 0.78 | 2.23 | 2.96 | 38.8% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 66.5 | 3.50 | 0.46 | 0.69 | 2.35 | 3.08 | 38.5% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 61.4 | 3.78 | 0.52 | 0.74 | 2.52 | 3.33 | 37.3% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 62.9 | 3.49 | 0.40 | 0.85 | 2.24 | 3.06 | 29.4% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 63.5 | 3.41 | 0.47 | 0.68 | 2.27 | 2.99 | 18.7% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 62.4 | 3.38 | 0.49 | 0.74 | 2.15 | 2.95 | 9.2% |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | Health | F0582 | Give residents notice of Medicaid/Medicare coverage and potential liability for services not covered. | D | 2026-05-14 |
| 2026-04-10 | Health | F0605 | Prevent the use of unnecessary psychotropic medications or use medications that may restrain a resident's ability to function. | D | 2026-05-14 |
| 2026-04-10 | Health | F0628 | Provide the required documentation or notification related to the resident's needs, appeal rights, or bed-hold policies. | D | 2026-05-14 |
| 2026-04-10 | Health | F0641 | Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment. | D | 2026-05-14 |
| 2026-04-10 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2026-05-14 |
| 2026-04-10 | Health | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2026-05-14 |
| 2026-04-10 | Health | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | G | 2026-05-14 |
| 2026-04-10 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2026-05-14 |
| 2026-04-10 | Health | F0756 | Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures. | D | 2026-05-14 |
| 2026-04-10 | Health | F0759 | Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater. | D | 2026-05-14 |
| 2026-04-10 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2026-05-14 |
| 2026-04-10 | Health | F0791 | Provide or obtain dental services for each resident. | D | 2026-05-14 |
| 2026-04-10 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2026-05-14 |
| 2026-04-10 | Health | F0881 | Implement a program that monitors antibiotic use. | E | 2026-05-14 |
| 2025-12-17 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2026-01-15 |
| 2025-12-17 | Health · complaint | F0770 | Provide timely, quality laboratory services/tests to meet the needs of residents. | D | 2026-01-15 |
| 2025-12-17 | Health · complaint | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | D | 2026-01-15 |
| 2025-07-09 | Health · complaint | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2025-08-15 |
| 2025-07-09 | Health · complaint | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | D | 2025-08-15 |
| 2025-06-18 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2025-08-15 |
| 2025-04-28 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2025-05-15 |
| 2025-02-27 | Health | F0577 | Allow residents to easily view the nursing home's survey results and communicate with advocate agencies. | C | 2025-03-31 |
| 2025-02-27 | Health | F0623 | Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights. | B | 2025-03-31 |
| 2025-02-27 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2025-03-31 |
| 2025-02-27 | Health | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | D | 2025-03-31 |
| 2025-02-27 | Health | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2025-03-31 |
| 2025-02-27 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2025-03-31 |
| 2025-02-27 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2025-03-31 |
| 2025-02-27 | Health | F0697 | Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services. | D | 2025-03-31 |
| 2025-02-27 | Health | F0921 | Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public. | D | 2025-03-31 |
| 2024-01-09 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | E | 2024-02-10 |
| 2024-01-09 | Health | F0582 | Give residents notice of Medicaid/Medicare coverage and potential liability for services not covered. | D | 2024-02-10 |
| 2024-01-09 | Health | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | D | 2024-02-10 |
| 2024-01-09 | Health | F0644 | Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed. | D | 2024-02-10 |
| 2024-01-09 | Health | F0692 | Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health. | D | 2024-02-10 |
| 2024-01-09 | Health | F0698 | Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services. | D | 2024-02-10 |
| 2024-01-09 | Health | F0757 | Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs. | E | 2024-02-10 |
| 2023-11-29 | Health · complaint | F0580 | Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident. | E | 2023-12-18 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALLEY TERRACE MED INV LLC | Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider | 100% | 2023-01-01 | current | hcris_a_8_1 |
| VALLEY TERRACE MED INV LLC | Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider | 100% | 2024-01-01 | current | hcris_a_8_1 |
| CROSS, CINDY | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 1995-10-26 | current | pecos_ownership |
| LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA, INC. | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 1996-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| NIMZ, PAUL | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2015-07-30 | current | pecos_ownership |
| THURMOND, JOAN | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2000-09-21 | current | pecos_ownership |
| VALLEY TERRACE MED INV LLC | Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider | 100% | 2021-01-01 | ended 2021-12-31 | hcris_a_8_1 |
| VALLEY TERRACE MED INV LLC | Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider | 100% | 2020-01-01 | ended 2020-12-31 | hcris_a_8_1 |
| VALLEY TERRACE MED INV LLC | Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider | 100% | 2022-01-01 | ended 2022-12-31 | hcris_a_8_1 |
| FORREST PRESTON | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 99% | 1995-10-26 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| CINDY CROSS | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 1995-10-26 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JOAN THURMOND | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2000-09-21 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| PAUL NIMZ | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2015-07-30 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-01 | Bremerton Trails Post Acute | — | — | — | 125 | RINCON BEACH, LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Othello Post Acute | — | — | — | 39 | DOHENY BEACH, LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Edmonds Post Acute | — | — | — | 128 | SALT CREEK BEACH, LLC |
| 2025-05-21 | AURORA VALLEY CARE | — | — | — | 124 | AURORA VALLEY CARE LLC |
| 2025-05-21 | THREE RIVERS CARE | — | — | — | 83 | THREE RIVERS CARE LLC |
| 2025-05-21 | FIR LANE CARE | — | — | — | 135 | FIR LANE CARE LLC |
| 2025-05-21 | SPOKANE FALLS CARE | — | — | — | 100 | SPOKANE FALLS CARE LLC |
| 2025-05-01 | MARIANWOOD HEALTH AND REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 117 | LUNA VEGA HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2025-04-01 | WOODARD CREEK HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 152 | WOODARD SNF OPERATIONS LLC |
| 2025-03-12 | Avalon Healthcare - Tacoma | — | — | — | 81 | AVALON HEALTHCARE-TACOMA LLC |
| 2025-03-01 | SOUTH HILL REHABILITATION AND CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 113 | LAST EMPIRE HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2024-08-01 | PINE RIDGE POST ACUTE | — | — | — | 80 | PINE RIDGE SNF HEALTHCARE LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 53053 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,289 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 53053 | fmr | 0 | $1,428 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 53053 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,465 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 53053 | fmr | 1 | $1,605 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 53053 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,794 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 53053 | fmr | 2 | $1,971 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 53053 | acs median gross | 3 | $2,233 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 53053 | fmr | 3 | $2,733 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 53053 | acs median gross | 4 | $2,564 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 53053 | fmr | 4 | $3,102 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 53053 | acs median gross | 5 | $2,810 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 53053 | acs median gross | $1,806 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 53053 | acs recent mover gross | $1,963 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 98372 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,723 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 98372 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,659 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 98372 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,813 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 98372 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,931 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 98372 | acs median gross | 4 | $3,395 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 98372 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,826 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 98372 | acs median gross | $1,783 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 98372 | acs recent mover gross | $2,167 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 98372 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $1,661 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 98372 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $1,359 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 98372 | safmr | 0 | $1,510 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 98372 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $1,870 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 98372 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $1,530 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 98372 | safmr | 1 | $1,700 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 98372 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $2,299 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 98372 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $1,881 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 98372 | safmr | 2 | $2,090 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 98372 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $3,190 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 98372 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $2,610 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 98372 | safmr | 3 | $2,900 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 98372 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $3,619 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 98372 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $2,961 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 98372 | safmr | 4 | $3,290 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |