Composite
25.2 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| regulatory risk | 80.2 | 76.9 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 18.51 | in index |
| billing conduct | 59.2 | 43.2 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 13.66 | in index |
| chow risk | 20.6 | 19.9 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 2.38 | in index |
| staffing risk | 11.6 | 11.7 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 2.23 | in index |
| financial risk | 8.2 | 17.3 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 1.89 | in index |
| Kind | Finding | Signal | Subject | First seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| connection | Owner spans multiple chains | 7 chains | JERGENSEN JOSHUA | 249 facilities |
| connection | Owner spans multiple chains | 7 chains | MITCHELL JOHN | 264 facilities |
| connection | Owner spans multiple chains | 6 chains | APT FREDERICK | 254 facilities |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 43.2 | B | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 25.0 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 14.8 | A | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 17.3 | A | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 76.9 | D | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 11.7 | A | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 51.5 | C | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 31.5 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 32.0 | B | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 23.4 | A | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 76.8 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 76.8 | D | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 11.7 | A | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 11.7 | A | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current owner tenure (years) | 1.99 | -1.65 | |
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -1.62 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 1.00 | -0.87 | |
| Occupancy | 0.97 | -0.79 | |
| Chain size (log) | 5.51 | +0.77 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 4.27 | -0.24 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chain size (log) | 5.51 | -2.01 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 0.00 | +1.43 | |
| Occupancy | 0.97 | -0.93 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 4.27 | -0.44 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -0.28 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 1.99 | -0.27 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | WA median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 4.27 | 3.70 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 1.12 | 0.62 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 3.79 | 3.51 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 4.46 | 3.79 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 68.9 | 4.27 | 1.12 | 0.55 | 2.60 | 3.79 | 5.5% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 68.4 | 4.38 | 1.12 | 0.52 | 2.75 | 3.95 | 1.1% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 67.8 | 4.39 | 1.18 | 0.47 | 2.74 | 3.81 | 3.3% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 67.7 | 4.55 | 1.18 | 0.70 | 2.67 | 3.83 | 0.1% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 68.3 | 4.51 | 1.15 | 0.72 | 2.65 | 3.85 | 0.7% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 65.8 | 4.37 | 1.14 | 0.58 | 2.65 | 3.99 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 64.5 | 3.86 | 0.91 | 0.27 | 2.68 | 3.81 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 67.2 | 3.70 | 0.95 | 0.26 | 2.49 | 3.66 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 64.2 | 3.69 | 0.93 | 0.28 | 2.47 | 3.72 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 63.2 | 3.63 | 0.84 | 0.36 | 2.42 | 3.62 | 0.2% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 62.7 | 3.68 | 0.92 | 0.36 | 2.40 | 3.61 | 0.2% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 63.9 | 3.58 | 1.00 | 0.29 | 2.28 | 3.50 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 64.0 | 3.48 | 0.98 | 0.30 | 2.19 | 3.40 | 0.3% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 63.4 | 3.15 | 0.98 | 0.24 | 1.93 | 2.95 | 0.9% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 59.5 | 3.59 | 1.08 | 0.20 | 2.31 | 3.32 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 63.9 | 3.38 | 0.99 | 0.22 | 2.17 | 3.21 | 0.0% |
| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-12 | Fine | $59,762 | CMS provider data |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-02 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2025-08-04 |
| 2025-06-25 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | E | 2025-07-31 |
| 2025-06-25 | Health | F0645 | PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities | E | 2025-07-31 |
| 2025-06-25 | Health | F0655 | Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted | E | 2025-07-31 |
| 2025-06-25 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | E | 2025-07-31 |
| 2025-06-25 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2025-07-31 |
| 2025-06-25 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2025-07-31 |
| 2025-06-25 | Health | F0847 | Inform resident or representatives choice to enter into binding arbitration agreement and right to refuse. | E | 2025-07-31 |
| 2025-06-25 | Health | F0883 | Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations. | D | 2025-07-31 |
| 2025-06-25 | Health | F0940 | Develop, implement, and/or maintain an effective training program for all new and existing staff members. | D | 2025-07-31 |
| 2025-01-15 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2025-02-13 |
| 2025-01-15 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2025-02-13 |
| 2024-12-30 | Health · complaint | F0660 | Plan the resident's discharge to meet the resident's goals and needs. | D | 2025-01-10 |
| 2024-08-12 | Health | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2024-09-16 |
| 2024-08-12 | Health | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2024-09-16 |
| 2024-08-12 | Health | F0610 | Respond appropriately to all alleged violations. | D | 2024-09-16 |
| 2024-08-12 | Health | F0645 | PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities | E | 2024-09-16 |
| 2024-08-12 | Health | F0655 | Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted | E | 2024-09-16 |
| 2024-08-12 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2024-09-16 |
| 2024-08-12 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2024-09-16 |
| 2024-08-12 | Health | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | G | 2024-09-16 |
| 2024-08-12 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2024-09-16 |
| 2024-08-12 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2024-09-16 |
| 2024-08-12 | Health | F0698 | Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services. | D | 2024-09-16 |
| 2024-08-12 | Health | F0699 | Provide care or services that was trauma informed and/or culturally competent. | D | 2024-09-16 |
| 2024-08-12 | Health | F0756 | Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures. | D | 2024-09-16 |
| 2024-08-12 | Health | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | E | 2024-09-16 |
| 2024-08-12 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | D | 2024-09-16 |
| 2024-08-12 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2024-09-16 |
| 2024-08-12 | Health | F0921 | Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public. | D | 2024-09-16 |
| 2024-07-22 | Health · complaint | F0698 | Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services. | D | 2024-07-30 |
| 2024-05-02 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2024-05-30 |
| 2023-07-31 | Health · complaint | F0573 | Let each resident or the resident's legal representative access or purchase copies of all the resident's records. | D | 2023-09-07 |
| 2023-06-09 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2023-07-27 |
| 2023-06-09 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2023-07-27 |
| 2023-06-09 | Health | F0810 | Provide special eating equipment and utensils for residents who need them and appropriate assistance. | D | 2023-07-27 |
| 2023-06-09 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2023-07-27 |
| 2023-06-09 | Health | F0814 | Dispose of garbage and refuse properly. | F | 2023-07-27 |
| 2023-06-09 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2023-07-27 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| APT, FREDERICK | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2024-08-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| JERGENSEN, JOSHUA | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2024-08-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MITCHELL, JOHN | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2024-08-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| PACS GROUP, INC. | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2024-08-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| PACS HOLDINGS, LLC | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2024-08-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| PROVIDENCE GROUP NH, LLC | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2024-08-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JASON MURRAY | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 42% | 2024-08-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| MARK HANCOCK | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 42% | 2024-08-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| FREDERICK APT | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2024-08-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JOHN MITCHELL | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2024-08-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JOSHUA JERGENSEN | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2024-08-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close date | Price | Buyer | Seller | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-01 | — | RICHLAND SNF HEALTHCARE LLC | CARE CENTER RICHLAND INC | chow |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-01 | Bremerton Trails Post Acute | — | — | — | 125 | RINCON BEACH, LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Othello Post Acute | — | — | — | 39 | DOHENY BEACH, LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Edmonds Post Acute | — | — | — | 128 | SALT CREEK BEACH, LLC |
| 2025-05-21 | AURORA VALLEY CARE | — | — | — | 124 | AURORA VALLEY CARE LLC |
| 2025-05-21 | THREE RIVERS CARE | — | — | — | 83 | THREE RIVERS CARE LLC |
| 2025-05-21 | FIR LANE CARE | — | — | — | 135 | FIR LANE CARE LLC |
| 2025-05-21 | SPOKANE FALLS CARE | — | — | — | 100 | SPOKANE FALLS CARE LLC |
| 2025-05-01 | MARIANWOOD HEALTH AND REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 117 | LUNA VEGA HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2025-04-01 | WOODARD CREEK HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 152 | WOODARD SNF OPERATIONS LLC |
| 2025-03-12 | Avalon Healthcare - Tacoma | — | — | — | 81 | AVALON HEALTHCARE-TACOMA LLC |
| 2025-03-01 | SOUTH HILL REHABILITATION AND CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 113 | LAST EMPIRE HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2024-08-01 | PINE RIDGE POST ACUTE | — | — | — | 80 | PINE RIDGE SNF HEALTHCARE LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 53005 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,025 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 53005 | fmr | 0 | $1,122 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 53005 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,098 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 53005 | fmr | 1 | $1,268 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 53005 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,333 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 53005 | fmr | 2 | $1,538 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 53005 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,626 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 53005 | fmr | 3 | $2,071 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 53005 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,942 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 53005 | fmr | 4 | $2,385 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 53005 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,822 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 53005 | acs median gross | $1,306 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 53005 | acs recent mover gross | $1,480 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 99354 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,205 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 99354 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,159 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 99354 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,368 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 99354 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,723 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 99354 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,781 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 99354 | acs median gross | 5 | $2,649 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 99354 | acs median gross | $1,371 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 99354 | acs recent mover gross | $1,423 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 99354 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $1,287 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 99354 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $1,053 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 99354 | safmr | 0 | $1,170 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 99354 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $1,463 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 99354 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $1,197 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 99354 | safmr | 1 | $1,330 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 99354 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,771 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 99354 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $1,449 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 99354 | safmr | 2 | $1,610 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 99354 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $2,387 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 99354 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,953 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 99354 | safmr | 3 | $2,170 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 99354 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $2,750 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 99354 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $2,250 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 99354 | safmr | 4 | $2,500 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |