5358 EAST BASELINE ROAD, MESA, AZ 85206 · CCN 035280 · chain MUNCH TOOKE LLC
Composite
63.8 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
70
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 63.8% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later lease_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
AZ median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
4.27
3.53
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.78
0.43
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
4.02
3.35
3.11
—
Weekday total
4.37
3.62
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
68.0
4.27
0.78
1.17
2.32
4.02
0.7%
2025Q3
92
66.1
4.85
0.77
1.25
2.83
4.34
2.1%
2025Q2
91
64.8
4.72
0.80
1.27
2.65
4.20
2.6%
2025Q1
90
66.4
4.30
0.64
1.26
2.39
3.81
0.8%
2024Q4
92
67.0
4.26
0.56
1.33
2.36
4.01
1.7%
2024Q3
92
66.3
4.20
0.44
1.44
2.31
3.89
1.8%
2024Q2
91
65.4
4.20
0.42
1.55
2.23
4.03
1.9%
2024Q1
91
67.7
4.13
0.43
1.44
2.26
3.92
3.3%
2023Q4
92
62.9
4.34
0.44
1.52
2.37
4.07
1.3%
2023Q3
92
55.5
4.72
0.75
1.45
2.52
4.21
0.0%
2023Q2
91
67.5
4.39
0.65
1.41
2.34
3.90
6.8%
2023Q1
90
66.1
4.48
0.44
1.50
2.54
4.10
10.1%
2022Q4
92
65.5
4.54
0.58
1.44
2.52
4.02
8.6%
2022Q3
92
62.8
5.39
0.88
1.59
2.91
4.61
25.4%
2022Q2
91
65.0
4.94
0.65
1.30
2.98
3.94
22.6%
2022Q1
90
66.0
5.26
0.79
1.36
3.11
4.59
27.9%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2025-10-07
2025-07-02
Health · complaint
F0563
Honor the resident's right to receive visitors of his or her choosing, at the time of his or her choosing.
D
2025-08-16
2024-09-06
Health
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
D
2024-10-19
2024-09-06
Health
F0727
Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis.
D
2024-10-19
2024-09-06
Health
F0757
Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs.
D
2024-10-19
2024-04-17
Health · complaint
F0698
Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services.
D
2024-05-24
2024-01-31
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2024-04-15
2022-11-10
Health
F0552
Ensure that residents are fully informed and understand their health status, care and treatments.
D
2022-12-16
2022-11-10
Health
F0554
Allow residents to self-administer drugs if determined clinically appropriate.
E
2022-12-16
2022-11-10
Health
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
D
2022-12-16
2022-11-10
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2022-12-16
2022-11-10
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
D
2022-12-16
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
53
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
MUNCH TOOKE, LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
49%
2011-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
SP MESA, LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
49%
2011-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
SP RE DEVELOPMENT LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
39%
2011-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
HANSEN, CHARLES
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
13%
2011-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
STERLING & JACQUELINE HOLDINGS,LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
10%
2022-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
RDW ARIZONA LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
8%
2011-07-12
current
pecos_ownership
SCHAEFER, JACOB
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
6%
2011-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
AGUILAR, SALVADOR
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-07-16
current
pecos_ownership
BEASLEY, DONNA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
CORDOVA, CHRISTINA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2017-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
EVANGELISTA, MARIFIDES
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-02-21
current
pecos_ownership
FICEK, GREGORY
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2015-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
FICEK, GREGORY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2011-05-09
current
pecos_ownership
GUDINO, LORI
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
HANSEN, CHARLES
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2009-06-15
current
pecos_ownership
HOUSLEY CASTANEDA, JONIQUE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
IBIS, PATTI
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2012-03-19
current
pecos_ownership
KENNEDY, PATRICIA
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
KENNEDY, PATRICIA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
LEACH FAMILY REVOCABLE TRUST DATED 2/25/24
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2022-12-06
current
pecos_ownership
MUNCH, MICHAEL
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2011-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
SANTE PARTNERS II LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2015-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
SCHAEFER, JACOB
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2009-06-15
current
pecos_ownership
SCHAEFER, JACOB
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-05-11
current
pecos_ownership
SHABA, WISAM
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-14
current
pecos_ownership
SIMMONS, MAY JOYAL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2013-04-15
current
pecos_ownership
STRICKLAND, DANIEL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-06-30
current
pecos_ownership
THINNES, DANIEL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2015-02-10
current
pecos_ownership
VANN, FELICIA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
VOGT, ANDREA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-02-11
current
pecos_ownership
CHARLES HANSEN
CORPORATE OFFICER
13%
2009-06-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHARLES HANSEN
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
13%
2011-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JACOB SCHAEFER
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
6%
2011-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL MUNCH
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
2%
2011-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PATRICIA KENNEDY
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
1%
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GREGORY FICEK
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
1%
2015-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANDREA VOGT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-02-11
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHRISTINA CORDOVA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2017-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DANIEL STRICKLAND
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-06-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DANIEL THINNES
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2015-02-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DONNA BEASLEY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
FELICIA VANN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GREGORY FICEK
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2011-05-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JACOB SCHAEFER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-05-11
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JACOB SCHAEFER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2009-06-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JONIQUE HOUSLEY CASTANEDA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LORI GUDINO
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARIFIDES EVANGELISTA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-02-21
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MAY JOYAL SIMMONS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2013-04-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PATRICIA KENNEDY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PATTI IBIS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2012-03-19
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SALVADOR AGUILAR
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-07-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WISAM SHABA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-14
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 04013
acs median gross
0
$1,383
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04013
fmr
0
$1,457
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 04013
acs median gross
1
$1,453
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04013
fmr
1
$1,583
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 04013
acs median gross
2
$1,698
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04013
fmr
2
$1,839
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 04013
acs median gross
3
$2,027
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04013
fmr
3
$2,452
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 04013
acs median gross
4
$2,312
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04013
fmr
4
$2,720
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 04013
acs median gross
5
$2,632
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04013
acs median gross
$1,708
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04013
acs recent mover gross
$1,867
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85206
acs median gross
0
$1,845
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85206
acs median gross
1
$1,706
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85206
acs median gross
2
$1,785
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85206
acs median gross
3
$2,064
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85206
acs median gross
4
$2,093
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85206
acs median gross
5
$2,764
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85206
acs median gross
$1,818
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85206
acs recent mover gross
$1,992
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 85206
payment standard 110
0
$1,738
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85206
payment standard 90
0
$1,422
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85206
safmr
0
$1,580
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85206
payment standard 110
1
$1,881
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85206
payment standard 90
1
$1,539
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85206
safmr
1
$1,710
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85206
payment standard 110
2
$2,189
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85206
payment standard 90
2
$1,791
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85206
safmr
2
$1,990
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85206
payment standard 110
3
$2,915
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85206
payment standard 90
3
$2,385
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85206
safmr
3
$2,650
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85206
payment standard 110
4
$3,234
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85206
payment standard 90
4
$2,646
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85206
safmr
4
$2,940
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.