Composite
43.5 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| state reg risk | 63.7 | 15.0 | 0.30 | 0.1875 | 11.94 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 48.9 | 37.9 | 0.30 | 0.1875 | 9.17 | in index |
| staffing risk | 58.3 | 58.3 | 0.25 | 0.1563 | 9.11 | in index |
| chow risk | 87.8 | 72.4 | 0.15 | 0.0938 | 8.23 | in index |
| financial risk | 40.6 | 39.9 | 0.30 | 0.1875 | 7.61 | in index |
| billing conduct | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.30 | 0.1875 | 0.00 | in index |
| ownership opacity | 52.1 | 55.0 | excluded |
| Kind | Finding | Signal | Subject | First seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| connection | Owner fleet risk far above national | +24.6 vs natl | WILLIG ZACHARY | 82 facilities |
| connection | Owner spans multiple chains | 15 chains | WILLIG ZACHARY | 81 facilities |
| connection | Owner fleet enforcement cluster | 48% fined | WILLIG ZACHARY | 82 facilities |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 0.0 | A | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 55.0 | C | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 70.7 | D | v0.1-txhhsc | default · in composite | Texas licence reissue timing as an ownership-transfer proxy. |
| chow risk | 91.4 | F | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 39.9 | B | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| ownership opacity | 55.0 | C | v0.1-txhhsc | default · in composite | Texas HHSC directory ownership structure: chain size, absentee owner, management company, entity form, owner closure history. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 0.1 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 37.9 | B | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 58.3 | C | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| state reg risk | 15.0 | A | v0.5 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 50.9 | C | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 30.9 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 25.4 | B | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 44.3 | B | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 42.3 | B | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 42.3 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 58.3 | C | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 58.3 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current owner tenure (years) | 1.41 | -1.71 | |
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -1.62 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 1.00 | -0.87 | |
| Occupancy | 0.40 | +0.86 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 19.00 | +0.29 | |
| Contract staffing share | 0.11 | +0.07 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 19.00 | -2.09 | |
| Occupancy | 0.40 | +1.47 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Staffing trend, last 4 quarters | 0.85 | +0.37 | |
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -0.28 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 1.41 | -0.28 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 1.00 | +0.23 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | TX median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 3.16 | 2.67 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.42 | 0.24 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 3.11 | 2.56 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 3.18 | 2.72 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 24.0 | 3.16 | 0.42 | 0.84 | 1.89 | 3.11 | 10.7% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 15.3 | 3.00 | 0.11 | 1.34 | 1.55 | 3.49 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 25.3 | 2.31 | 0.09 | 0.94 | 1.28 | 2.56 | 9.7% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 24.4 | 2.36 | 0.10 | 0.96 | 1.29 | 2.56 | 9.1% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 24.4 | 2.93 | 0.04 | 1.19 | 1.70 | 2.65 | 2.0% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 26.1 | 2.68 | 0.03 | 1.12 | 1.53 | 2.53 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 27.2 | 2.57 | 0.04 | 1.07 | 1.46 | 2.45 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 26.6 | 2.29 | 0.05 | 0.70 | 1.54 | 2.27 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 27.2 | 2.30 | 0.14 | 0.54 | 1.62 | 2.45 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 26.1 | 2.69 | 0.00 | 1.11 | 1.58 | 2.49 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 22.7 | 2.65 | 0.00 | 1.40 | 1.24 | 2.58 | 7.6% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 21.4 | 2.59 | 0.03 | 1.11 | 1.45 | 2.59 | 23.8% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 20.5 | 2.97 | 0.00 | 1.15 | 1.81 | 2.83 | 19.2% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 22.3 | 1.87 | 0.00 | 1.01 | 0.86 | 1.70 | 0.0% |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Health · complaint | F0645 | PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities | D | 2026-05-18 |
| 2026-04-25 | Health · complaint | F0742 | Provide the appropriate treatment and services to a resident who displays or is diagnosed with mental disorder or psychosocial adjustment difficulty, or who has a history of trauma and/or post-traumatic stress disorder. | D | 2026-05-18 |
| 2025-12-18 | Health | F0607 | Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft. | E | 2026-01-15 |
| 2025-12-18 | Health | F0640 | Encode each resident’s assessment data and transmit these data to the State within 7 days of assessment. | E | 2026-01-15 |
| 2025-12-18 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2025-12-19 |
| 2025-12-18 | Health | F0680 | Ensure the activities program is directed by a qualified professional. | C | 2025-12-23 |
| 2025-12-18 | Health | F0727 | Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis. | F | 2026-01-29 |
| 2025-12-18 | Health | F0730 | Observe each nurse aide's job performance and give regular training. | E | 2025-12-19 |
| 2025-12-18 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2026-01-15 |
| 2025-12-18 | Health | F0849 | Arrange for the provision of hospice services or assist the resident in transferring to a facility that will arrange for the provision of hospice services. | E | 2026-01-15 |
| 2025-12-18 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2026-01-08 |
| 2025-12-18 | Health | F0940 | Develop, implement, and/or maintain an effective training program for all new and existing staff members. | E | 2026-01-08 |
| 2025-12-18 | Health | F0941 | Develop, implement, and/or maintain an effective training program that includes effective communications for direct care staff members. | E | 2026-01-08 |
| 2025-12-18 | Health | F0942 | Ensure that staff members are educated on resident rights and facility responsibilities to properly care for its residents. | E | 2026-01-08 |
| 2025-12-18 | Health | F0943 | Give their staff education on dementia care, and what abuse, neglect, and exploitation are; and how to report abuse, neglect, and exploitation. | E | 2026-01-08 |
| 2025-12-18 | Health | F0944 | Conduct mandatory training, for all staff, on the facility’s Quality Assurance and Performance Improvement Program. | E | 2026-01-08 |
| 2025-12-18 | Health | F0945 | Include as part of its infection prevention and control program, mandatory training that includes written standards, policies, and procedures for the program. | E | 2026-01-08 |
| 2025-12-18 | Health | F0946 | Provide training in compliance and ethics. | E | 2026-01-08 |
| 2025-12-18 | Health | F0949 | Provide behavior health training consistent with the requirements and as determined by a facility assessment. | E | 2026-01-08 |
| 2024-09-04 | Health · complaint | F0577 | Allow residents to easily view the nursing home's survey results and communicate with advocate agencies. | C | 2024-09-30 |
| 2024-09-04 | Health · complaint | F0655 | Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted | D | 2024-09-30 |
| 2024-09-04 | Health · complaint | F0730 | Observe each nurse aide's job performance and give regular training. | D | 2024-09-30 |
| 2024-09-04 | Health · complaint | F0803 | Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident. | F | 2024-09-30 |
| 2024-09-04 | Health · complaint | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2024-09-30 |
| 2024-09-04 | Health · complaint | F0941 | Develop, implement, and/or maintain an effective training program that includes effective communications for direct care staff members. | E | 2024-09-30 |
| 2024-09-04 | Health · complaint | F0942 | Ensure that staff members are educated on resident rights and facility responsibilities to properly care for its residents. | E | 2024-09-30 |
| 2024-09-04 | Health · complaint | F0943 | Give their staff education on dementia care, and what abuse, neglect, and exploitation are; and how to report abuse, neglect, and exploitation. | E | 2024-09-30 |
| 2024-09-04 | Health · complaint | F0945 | Include as part of its infection prevention and control program, mandatory training that includes written standards, policies, and procedures for the program. | E | 2024-09-30 |
| 2024-05-30 | Health · complaint | F0727 | Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis. | F | 2024-06-10 |
| 2024-05-30 | Health · complaint | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2024-06-10 |
| 2023-07-27 | Health | F0570 | Assure the security of all personal funds of residents deposited with the facility. | B | 2023-08-31 |
| 2023-07-27 | Health · complaint | F0579 | Provide information about how to apply for and use Medicare and Medicaid benefits. | C | 2023-08-31 |
| 2023-07-27 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | E | 2023-08-31 |
| 2023-07-27 | Health | F0727 | Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis. | F | 2023-08-31 |
| 2023-07-27 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2023-08-31 |
| 2023-07-27 | Health | F0865 | Have a plan that describes the process for conducting QAPI and QAA activities. | C | 2023-08-31 |
| 2023-07-27 | Health | F0881 | Implement a program that monitors antibiotic use. | E | 2023-08-31 |
| 2023-07-27 | Health | F0912 | Provide rooms that are at least 80 square feet per resident in multiple rooms and 100 square feet for single resident rooms. | B | 2023-08-31 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GHC HAMLIN OPERATIONS, LLC | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2025-03-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| ANDERSON, JENNIFER | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2025-03-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| EVANS, LEON | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2025-03-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| GHC HAMLIN OPERATIONS, LLC | — | — | 2025-03-01 | current | tx_hhsc_directory |
| GHC LTC MANAGEMENT, LLC | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2025-03-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| GHC LTC MANAGEMENT, LLC | — | — | 2025-03-01 | current | tx_hhsc_directory |
| GHC OPERATIONS HOLDCO, LLC | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2025-03-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| HUFF, LARRY | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-03-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| WHITE, CHAD | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-03-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| WILLIG, ZACHARY | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-03-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| JENNIFER ANDERSON | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 50% | 2025-03-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| LEON EVANS | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 50% | 2025-03-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| CHAD WHITE | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-03-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| LARRY HUFF | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-03-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| ZACHARY WILLIG | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-03-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close date | Price | Buyer | Seller | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-01 | — | GHC HAMLIN OPERATIONS, LLC | SLP HAMLIN LLC | chow |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-01 | ST. ANTHONY'S CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 120 | SOUTH LIMESTONE HOSPITAL DISTRICT |
| 2025-10-01 | Avir at New Braunfels | — | — | — | 154 | 821 US HIGHWAY 81 W OPCO LLC |
| 2025-09-01 | Avir at Texarkana | — | — | — | 110 | GUADALUPE COUNTY HOSPITAL BOARD |
| 2025-09-01 | PARKS HEALTH CENTER | — | — | — | 90 | WEST COKE COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT |
| 2025-09-01 | WINDMILL VILLAGE REHABILITATION & CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 120 | FANNIN COUNTY HOSPITAL AUTHORITY |
| 2025-08-31 | Las Ventanas De Socorro | — | — | — | 126 | SOCORRO HEALTH CARE LLC |
| 2025-08-01 | Avir at Mineola | — | — | — | 115 | HOPKINS COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT |
| 2025-08-01 | Avir at Orem | — | — | — | 120 | 3730 W OREM DR OPCO LLC |
| 2025-08-01 | Avir at Courtyard | — | — | — | 120 | 7499 STANWICK DR OPCO LLC |
| 2025-08-01 | HILLSIDE MEDICAL LODGE | — | — | — | 128 | CORYELL COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL AUTHORITY |
| 2025-08-01 | Avir at Pasadena | — | — | — | 131 | 4300 VISTA RD OPCO LLC |
| 2025-07-01 | Highland Meadows | — | — | — | 120 | NOCONA HOSPITAL DISTRICT |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 48253 | acs median gross | 0 | $325 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 48253 | fmr | 0 | $1,010 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 48253 | acs median gross | 1 | $588 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 48253 | fmr | 1 | $1,020 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 48253 | acs median gross | 2 | $816 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 48253 | fmr | 2 | $1,276 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 48253 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,110 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 48253 | fmr | 3 | $1,653 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 48253 | fmr | 4 | $1,987 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 48253 | acs median gross | $866 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 79520 | acs median gross | 2 | $828 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 79520 | acs median gross | 3 | $896 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 79520 | acs median gross | $853 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 79520 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $935 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 79520 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $765 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 79520 | safmr | 0 | $850 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 79520 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $946 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 79520 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $774 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 79520 | safmr | 1 | $860 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 79520 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,199 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 79520 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $981 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 79520 | safmr | 2 | $1,090 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 79520 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,562 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 79520 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,278 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 79520 | safmr | 3 | $1,420 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 79520 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $1,881 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 79520 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,539 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 79520 | safmr | 4 | $1,710 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |