186 MILLAR ROAD, EAST PRAIRIE, MO 63845 · CCN 265551 · chain CHP SNFCO LLC
Composite
44.4 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
52
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 44.4% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
3
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+23.2 vs natl
HARRIS JERRY
12 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+21.7 vs natl
CALVERT GREGG
8 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+20.3 vs natl
STEELE SHERI
8 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
MO median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.13
2.41
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.56
0.25
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.69
2.24
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.31
2.49
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
26.0
3.13
0.56
0.58
1.99
2.69
0.0%
2025Q3
92
26.8
3.15
0.43
0.69
2.04
2.95
0.0%
2025Q2
91
31.1
2.81
0.23
0.75
1.82
2.58
0.0%
2025Q1
90
31.1
2.89
0.34
0.66
1.88
2.73
0.0%
2024Q4
92
28.9
3.21
0.52
0.64
2.05
2.89
0.0%
2024Q3
92
29.6
2.96
0.41
0.58
1.98
2.69
0.0%
2024Q2
91
26.4
3.28
0.51
0.69
2.08
3.07
0.0%
2024Q1
91
22.9
3.61
0.35
1.03
2.22
3.33
0.0%
2023Q4
92
22.3
3.70
0.35
1.08
2.27
3.44
0.0%
2023Q3
92
26.3
2.99
0.26
0.87
1.86
2.75
0.0%
2023Q2
91
27.6
2.82
0.31
0.75
1.76
2.39
0.0%
2023Q1
90
27.8
2.61
0.29
0.70
1.62
2.34
0.0%
2022Q4
92
26.0
2.42
0.37
0.78
1.27
2.10
0.8%
2022Q3
92
25.9
2.07
0.35
0.51
1.21
1.59
0.0%
2022Q2
91
24.2
2.55
0.61
0.79
1.14
2.39
0.0%
2022Q1
90
22.2
2.54
0.46
0.94
1.13
2.70
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
27
C × 2D × 19E × 3F × 3
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-06-12
Health
F0605
Prevent the use of unnecessary psychotropic medications or use medications that may restrain a resident's ability to function.
D
2025-07-27
2025-06-12
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2025-07-27
2025-06-12
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2025-07-27
2025-06-12
Health
F0698
Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services.
D
2025-07-27
2025-06-12
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2025-07-27
2025-06-12
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2025-07-27
2025-06-12
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-07-27
2025-06-12
Health
F0947
Ensure nurse aides have the skills they need to care for residents, and give nurse aides education in dementia care and abuse prevention.
D
2025-07-27
2024-04-09
Health
F0578
Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.
D
2024-05-24
2024-04-09
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
E
2024-05-24
2024-04-09
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2024-05-24
2024-04-09
Health
F0814
Dispose of garbage and refuse properly.
E
2024-05-24
2023-03-09
Health
F0585
Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances.
E
2023-04-21
2023-03-09
Health
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
D
2023-04-21
2023-03-09
Health
F0625
Notify the resident or the resident’s representative in writing how long the nursing home will hold the resident’s bed in cases of transfer to a hospital or therapeutic leave.
D
2023-04-21
2023-03-09
Health
F0637
Assess the resident when there is a significant change in condition
D
2023-04-21
2023-03-09
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2023-04-21
2023-03-09
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2023-04-21
2023-03-09
Health
F0660
Plan the resident's discharge to meet the resident's goals and needs.
D
2023-04-21
2023-03-09
Health
F0698
Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services.
D
2023-04-21
2023-03-09
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2023-04-21
2023-03-09
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2023-04-21
2023-03-09
Health
F0814
Dispose of garbage and refuse properly.
D
2023-04-21
2023-03-09
Health
F0838
Conduct and document a facility-wide assessment to determine what resources are necessary to care for residents competently during both day-to-day operations (including nights and weekends) and emergencies.
C
2023-04-21
2023-03-09
Health
F0868
Have the Quality Assessment and Assurance group have the required members and meet at least quarterly
F
2023-04-21
2023-03-09
Health
F0881
Implement a program that monitors antibiotic use.
C
2023-04-21
2023-03-09
Health
F0883
Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations.
D
2023-04-21
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
17
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
CALVERT, GREGG
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
12%
2021-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
HARRIS, JERRY
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
10%
2021-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
STEELE, SHERI
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
8%
2021-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
CHP SNF OPCO HOLDINGS LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2021-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHP SNFCO LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2021-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ERGO MIDWEST INC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
ERGO MIDWEST INC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2021-01-01
ended 2021-05-31
hcris_a_8_1
SYSTEMS LEASING INC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2021-01-01
ended 2021-05-31
hcris_a_8_1
SYSTEMS LEASING INC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
CHP SNF HOLDINGS LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
70%
2021-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GREGG CALVERT
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
50%
2021-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JERRY HARRIS
CORPORATE OFFICER
50%
2021-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL BRODY
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
25%
2021-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
VICTOR SHEVLYAGIN
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
8%
2021-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHERI STEELE
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
8%
2021-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BARBARA BROWN
OTHER
0%
2021-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DANIEL BROWN
OTHER
0%
2021-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
6
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$176,202
—
$176,202
—
—
1
—
2023-12-31
$162,893
—
$162,893
—
—
0
—
2022-12-31
$176,868
—
—
—
—
1
—
2021-12-31
$68,323
—
—
—
—
1
—
2021-05-31
$146,910
—
—
$39,162
$33,672
10
propco
2020-12-31
$352,582
—
—
$93,988
$80,812
10
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
31
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 29133
fmr
0
$660
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29133
acs median gross
1
$407
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29133
fmr
1
$677
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29133
acs median gross
2
$687
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29133
fmr
2
$888
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29133
acs median gross
3
$856
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29133
fmr
3
$1,196
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29133
acs median gross
4
$1,026
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29133
fmr
4
$1,407
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 29133
acs median gross
$762
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 29133
acs recent mover gross
$726
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 63845
acs median gross
1
$404
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 63845
acs median gross
2
$638
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 63845
acs median gross
3
$870
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 63845
acs median gross
$789
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 63845
acs recent mover gross
$713
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 63845
payment standard 110
0
$748
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63845
payment standard 90
0
$612
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63845
safmr
0
$680
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63845
payment standard 110
1
$759
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63845
payment standard 90
1
$621
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63845
safmr
1
$690
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63845
payment standard 110
2
$1,001
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63845
payment standard 90
2
$819
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63845
safmr
2
$910
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63845
payment standard 110
3
$1,342
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63845
payment standard 90
3
$1,098
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63845
safmr
3
$1,220
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63845
payment standard 110
4
$1,584
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63845
payment standard 90
4
$1,296
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 63845
safmr
4
$1,440
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.