Reads as: riskier than 65.5% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
7
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+23.1 vs natl
GANZ DAVID
15 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+22.4 vs natl
SKYBLUE HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC
6 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+22.0 vs natl
CHUMLEY RICHARD
30 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
GANZ DAVID
14 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
53% fined
GANZ DAVID
15 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
50% fined
SKYBLUE HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC
6 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
CHUMLEY RICHARD
30 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
TX median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.37
2.67
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.12
0.24
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.38
2.56
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.36
2.72
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
52.7
2.37
0.12
0.93
1.32
2.38
0.8%
2025Q3
92
49.7
2.35
0.06
0.94
1.35
2.49
0.0%
2025Q2
91
46.1
2.73
0.07
1.25
1.41
2.77
0.0%
2025Q1
90
48.7
2.92
0.06
1.27
1.60
2.86
0.4%
2024Q4
92
56.9
2.48
0.03
1.06
1.39
2.34
0.5%
2024Q3
92
51.7
2.61
0.12
1.01
1.48
2.52
0.6%
2024Q2
91
56.3
2.39
0.14
0.95
1.29
2.23
0.3%
2024Q1
91
57.0
2.21
0.10
0.97
1.15
1.91
0.1%
2023Q4
92
50.9
2.49
0.13
1.15
1.22
2.37
0.0%
2023Q3
92
49.7
2.76
0.09
1.30
1.37
2.64
0.0%
2023Q2
91
49.2
2.71
0.11
1.22
1.38
2.69
0.0%
2023Q1
90
48.4
2.95
0.13
1.27
1.55
2.92
0.0%
2022Q4
92
55.6
2.63
0.08
1.16
1.39
2.65
0.0%
2022Q3
92
54.7
2.19
0.06
0.98
1.15
1.98
0.0%
2022Q2
91
50.8
2.26
0.05
0.96
1.26
2.04
0.0%
2022Q1
90
48.2
2.30
0.05
0.96
1.28
2.00
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Establish a governing body that is legally responsible for establishing and implementing policies for managing and operating the facility and appoints a properly licensed administrator responsible for managing the facility.
F
2026-01-13
2025-11-20
Health · complaint
F0837
Establish a governing body that is legally responsible for establishing and implementing policies for managing and operating the facility and appoints a properly licensed administrator responsible for managing the facility.
F
2026-01-04
2025-09-04
Health · complaint
F0837
Establish a governing body that is legally responsible for establishing and implementing policies for managing and operating the facility and appoints a properly licensed administrator responsible for managing the facility.
F
2025-11-10
2025-05-02
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2025-05-23
2025-05-02
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2025-05-23
2025-05-02
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2025-05-23
2025-05-02
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2025-05-23
2025-05-02
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2025-05-23
2025-05-02
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2025-05-23
2024-09-20
Health · complaint
F0655
Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted
D
2024-10-11
2024-09-20
Health · complaint
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2024-10-11
2024-09-20
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
K
2024-10-11
2024-05-22
Health · complaint
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2024-06-10
2024-05-22
Health · complaint
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
D
2024-06-10
2024-05-22
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2024-06-10
2024-03-21
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2024-04-11
2024-03-21
Health
F0578
Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.
D
2024-04-11
2024-03-21
Health
F0637
Assess the resident when there is a significant change in condition
D
2024-04-11
2024-03-21
Health
F0645
PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities
D
2024-04-11
2024-03-21
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2024-04-11
2024-03-21
Health
F0700
Try different approaches before using a bed rail. If a bed rail is needed, the facility must (1) assess a resident for safety risk; (2) review these risks and benefits with the resident/representative; (3) get informed consent; and (4) Correctly install and maintain the bed rail.
E
2024-04-11
2024-03-21
Health
F0727
Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis.
F
2024-04-11
2024-03-21
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2024-04-11
2024-03-21
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2024-04-11
2023-10-07
Health · complaint
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
D
2023-10-24
2023-10-07
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2023-10-24
2023-01-27
Health
F0640
Encode each resident’s assessment data and transmit these data to the State within 7 days of assessment.
D
2023-02-16
2023-01-27
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2023-02-16
2023-01-27
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
E
2023-02-16
2023-01-27
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2023-02-16
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
15
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
CHUMLEY, RICHARD
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2007-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
GANZ, DAVID
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
LARA, SERGIO
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-20
current
pecos_ownership
REINART, JANET
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2010-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
SB PLAINVIEW HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC
—
—
2023-12-01
current
tx_hhsc_directory
SKYBLUE HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-02-15
current
pecos_ownership
STRATFORD HOSPITAL DISTRICT
—
—
2023-12-01
current
tx_hhsc_directory
SULLIVAN, BRYAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-14
current
pecos_ownership
WRIGHT, CECIL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2014-09-16
current
pecos_ownership
BRYAN SULLIVAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-14
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CECIL WRIGHT
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2014-09-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID GANZ
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JANET REINART
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2010-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RICHARD CHUMLEY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2007-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SERGIO LARA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
33
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 48189
acs median gross
0
$440
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48189
fmr
0
$671
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48189
acs median gross
1
$755
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48189
fmr
1
$888
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48189
acs median gross
2
$788
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48189
fmr
2
$973
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48189
acs median gross
3
$1,059
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48189
fmr
3
$1,304
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48189
acs median gross
4
$1,086
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48189
fmr
4
$1,477
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48189
acs median gross
$836
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48189
acs recent mover gross
$1,195
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 79072
acs median gross
0
$437
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 79072
acs median gross
1
$759
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 79072
acs median gross
2
$795
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 79072
acs median gross
3
$1,104
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 79072
acs median gross
$846
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 79072
acs recent mover gross
$1,225
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 79072
payment standard 110
0
$748
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 79072
payment standard 90
0
$612
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 79072
safmr
0
$680
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 79072
payment standard 110
1
$979
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 79072
payment standard 90
1
$801
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 79072
safmr
1
$890
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 79072
payment standard 110
2
$1,078
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 79072
payment standard 90
2
$882
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 79072
safmr
2
$980
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 79072
payment standard 110
3
$1,441
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 79072
payment standard 90
3
$1,179
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 79072
safmr
3
$1,310
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 79072
payment standard 110
4
$1,639
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 79072
payment standard 90
4
$1,341
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 79072
safmr
4
$1,490
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.