Reads as: riskier than 89.2% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later lease_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
AZ median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.58
3.53
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.29
0.43
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.49
3.35
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.61
3.62
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
53.8
3.58
0.29
1.26
2.03
3.49
0.3%
2025Q3
92
48.0
3.67
0.48
1.27
1.93
3.63
3.1%
2025Q2
91
43.8
3.89
0.45
1.32
2.13
3.71
6.5%
2025Q1
90
47.3
3.49
0.59
1.08
1.82
3.22
4.1%
2024Q4
92
36.2
3.55
0.74
0.87
1.94
3.48
0.0%
2024Q3
92
26.6
3.64
0.87
0.77
2.00
3.73
0.0%
2024Q2
91
28.7
3.53
0.89
0.72
1.92
3.23
0.0%
2024Q1
91
35.9
3.14
0.60
0.79
1.75
2.69
0.0%
2023Q4
92
20.4
3.62
0.82
0.81
1.99
3.57
0.0%
2023Q3
92
29.5
3.52
0.56
1.04
1.93
3.50
0.0%
2023Q2
91
53.9
3.42
0.47
1.21
1.73
3.09
0.0%
2023Q1
90
62.4
3.37
0.43
1.12
1.82
2.82
0.0%
2022Q4
92
52.1
3.41
0.50
1.05
1.86
3.08
0.0%
2022Q3
92
52.4
3.48
0.31
1.39
1.78
3.30
0.0%
2022Q2
91
54.0
3.50
0.33
1.25
1.92
3.25
0.0%
2022Q1
90
47.3
3.27
0.34
0.97
1.96
3.02
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2026-03-13
2025-05-14
Health · complaint
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2025-06-27
2024-09-12
Health · complaint
F0553
Allow resident to participate in the development and implementation of his or her person-centered plan of care.
D
2024-10-24
2024-09-12
Health · complaint
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
G
2024-10-24
2024-09-12
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2024-10-24
2024-09-12
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
D
2024-10-24
2024-06-04
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
E
2024-07-09
2024-06-04
Health · complaint
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2024-07-09
2023-01-19
Health
F0578
Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.
E
2023-02-19
2023-01-19
Health
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
D
2023-02-19
2023-01-19
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2023-02-19
2023-01-19
Health
F0691
Provide appropriate colostomy, urostomy, or ileostomy care/services for a resident who requires such services.
D
2023-02-19
2023-01-19
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
E
2023-02-19
2023-01-19
Health
F0698
Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services.
D
2023-02-19
2023-01-19
Health
F0888
Ensure staff are vaccinated for COVID-19
E
2023-02-19
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
37
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
BUTNER, NANCY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-09-16
current
pecos_ownership
CROSS, CINDY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
1994-04-21
current
pecos_ownership
FLETCHER, TODD
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
HENRY, TERRY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
1999-08-16
current
pecos_ownership
LAY, LISA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-04-24
current
pecos_ownership
LEHMAN, ADIA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-09-02
current
pecos_ownership
LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA, INC.
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
—
current
pecos_ownership
PRABHAKARAN, VINAY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-28
current
pecos_ownership
PRABHAKARAN, VINAY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2012-08-29
current
pecos_ownership
PRESTON, AUBREY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-11-27
current
pecos_ownership
PRESTON, FORREST
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
—
current
pecos_ownership
PRESTON, FORREST
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
1990-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
ROGGE, KELLI
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-10-15
current
pecos_ownership
ROGGE, KELLI
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-10-06
current
pecos_ownership
SWANKER, RICHARD
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2002-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
THURMOND, JOAN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2000-09-22
current
pecos_ownership
ZIEGLER, JAMES
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2001-09-18
current
pecos_ownership
CONSTRUCTION ENTERPRISES
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
CONSTRUCTION ENTERPRISES
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
SPOKANE MEDICAL INVESTORS LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
SPOKANE MEDICAL INVESTORS LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
FORREST PRESTON
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
90%
—
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
FORREST PRESTON
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
10%
1990-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TERRY HENRY
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
1999-08-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ADIA LEHMAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-09-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AUBREY PRESTON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-11-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CINDY CROSS
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
1994-04-21
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JAMES ZIEGLER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2001-09-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOAN THURMOND
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2000-09-22
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KELLI ROGGE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-10-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KELLI ROGGE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-10-06
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LISA LAY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-04-24
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NANCY BUTNER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-09-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RICHARD SWANKER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2002-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TODD FLETCHER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
VINAY PRABHAKARAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
VINAY PRABHAKARAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2012-08-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$896,981
—
—
—
$376,010
5
—
2023-12-31
$972,112
—
—
—
$496,187
5
—
2022-12-31
$1,063,971
—
—
—
$495,300
8
propco
2021-12-31
$1,198,884
—
—
—
$626,555
8
propco
2020-12-31
$1,492,146
—
—
—
$99,653
4
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 04013
acs median gross
0
$1,383
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04013
fmr
0
$1,457
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 04013
acs median gross
1
$1,453
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04013
fmr
1
$1,583
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 04013
acs median gross
2
$1,698
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04013
fmr
2
$1,839
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 04013
acs median gross
3
$2,027
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04013
fmr
3
$2,452
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 04013
acs median gross
4
$2,312
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04013
fmr
4
$2,720
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 04013
acs median gross
5
$2,632
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04013
acs median gross
$1,708
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 04013
acs recent mover gross
$1,867
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85260
acs median gross
0
$2,002
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85260
acs median gross
1
$1,861
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85260
acs median gross
2
$2,143
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85260
acs median gross
3
$2,448
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85260
acs median gross
4
$3,172
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85260
acs median gross
5
$3,501
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85260
acs median gross
$2,132
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 85260
acs recent mover gross
$2,309
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 85260
payment standard 110
0
$2,145
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85260
payment standard 90
0
$1,755
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85260
safmr
0
$1,950
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85260
payment standard 110
1
$2,332
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85260
payment standard 90
1
$1,908
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85260
safmr
1
$2,120
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85260
payment standard 110
2
$2,706
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85260
payment standard 90
2
$2,214
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85260
safmr
2
$2,460
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85260
payment standard 110
3
$3,608
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85260
payment standard 90
3
$2,952
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85260
safmr
3
$3,280
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85260
payment standard 110
4
$4,004
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85260
payment standard 90
4
$3,276
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 85260
safmr
4
$3,640
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.