Reads as: riskier than 65.3% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
16
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+31.4 vs natl
INNOVATIVE NURSE CONSULTING LLC
19 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+27.9 vs natl
SCROGGINS BRIAN
10 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+27.1 vs natl
DECATUR HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
9 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+26.4 vs natl
BRIDGEPOINTE FINANICAL SERVICES LLC
22 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+25.8 vs natl
BAUDER WILLIAM
37 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
18 chains
CTR PARTNERSHIP LP
99 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
15 chains
CARETRUST REIT INC
96 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
10 chains
BAUDER WILLIAM
35 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
9 chains
BOULWARE STEVEN
40 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
8 chains
PRIORITY MANAGEMENT GROUP LLC
36 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
BOULWARE DOUGLAS
38 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
INNOVATIVE NURSE CONSULTING LLC
18 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
PROGRESSIVE REHAB SOLUTIONS LLC
33 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
BRIDGEPOINTE FINANICAL SERVICES LLC
21 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
70% fined
SCROGGINS BRIAN
10 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
67% fined
DECATUR HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
9 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
TX median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.83
2.67
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.07
0.24
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.70
2.56
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.88
2.72
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
96.6
2.83
0.07
1.15
1.60
2.70
15.9%
2025Q3
92
97.3
2.75
0.08
1.08
1.59
2.72
10.2%
2025Q2
91
116.4
2.52
0.09
0.89
1.54
2.46
17.2%
2025Q1
90
108.4
2.68
0.12
0.96
1.60
2.60
22.3%
2024Q4
92
103.1
2.77
0.11
1.03
1.62
2.73
32.8%
2024Q3
92
98.4
2.92
0.15
1.13
1.64
2.80
27.1%
2024Q2
91
100.0
2.97
0.11
1.19
1.67
2.88
22.6%
2024Q1
91
93.8
2.62
0.07
0.94
1.60
2.65
10.5%
2023Q4
92
104.6
2.73
0.08
1.09
1.56
2.80
14.8%
2023Q3
92
109.8
2.77
0.09
1.10
1.57
2.81
24.6%
2023Q2
91
105.9
2.62
0.07
0.99
1.56
2.65
22.3%
2023Q1
90
108.1
2.48
0.07
1.00
1.40
2.56
32.3%
2022Q4
92
96.0
2.61
0.08
0.99
1.53
2.58
28.7%
2022Q3
92
91.6
3.05
0.07
1.09
1.89
2.97
34.8%
2022Q2
91
93.9
3.01
0.21
0.91
1.90
2.89
16.8%
2022Q1
90
83.5
1.80
0.11
0.57
1.13
1.50
6.2%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2026-02-27
2025-12-30
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
G
—
2025-10-30
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
J
2025-10-31
2024-11-21
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2024-12-06
2024-11-21
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2024-12-06
2024-07-22
Health · complaint
F0806
Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food that accommodates resident allergies, intolerances, and preferences, as well as appealing options.
D
2024-08-16
2024-04-25
Health · complaint
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2024-05-01
2023-10-19
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
E
2023-11-01
2023-10-19
Health
F0636
Assess the resident completely in a timely manner when first admitted, and then periodically, at least every 12 months.
D
2023-11-01
2023-10-19
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2023-10-30
2023-10-19
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2023-11-01
2023-10-19
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2023-11-01
2023-10-19
Health
F0925
Make sure there is a pest control program to prevent/deal with mice, insects, or other pests.
F
2023-10-30
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
23
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
DECATUR HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2025-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
BAUDER, WILLIAM
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
BOULWARE, DOUGLAS
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-23
current
pecos_ownership
BOULWARE, STEVEN
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-08
current
pecos_ownership
BRIDGEPOINTE FINANICAL SERVICES, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
CAGLE, JORDAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
CARETRUST REIT INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
CTR PARTNERSHIP LP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
1999-12-31
current
pecos_ownership
CTR PARTNERSHIP LP
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
—
2025-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
DECATUR HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
—
—
2025-03-01
current
tx_hhsc_directory
INNOVATIVE NURSE CONSULTING, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
PMG OPCO BRIDGEPORT LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
PMG OPCO BRIDGEPORT LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-06
current
pecos_ownership
PMG OPCOBRIDGEPORT, LLC
—
—
2025-03-01
current
tx_hhsc_directory
PRIORITY MANAGEMENT GROUP, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
PROGRESSIVE REHAB SOLUTIONS, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
RICHARDSON, JOHN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
SCROGGINS, BRIAN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2025-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
BRIAN SCROGGINS
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2025-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CTR PARTNERSHIP LP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
—
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN RICHARDSON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JORDAN CAGLE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WILLIAM BAUDER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
1
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2020-04-30
$395,583
—
—
$308,036
$20,769
10
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
31
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 48497
fmr
0
$912
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48497
acs median gross
1
$876
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48497
fmr
1
$918
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48497
acs median gross
2
$1,118
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48497
fmr
2
$1,205
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48497
acs median gross
3
$1,630
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48497
fmr
3
$1,676
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48497
acs median gross
4
$1,551
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48497
fmr
4
$2,021
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48497
acs median gross
$1,299
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48497
acs recent mover gross
$1,387
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 76426
acs median gross
1
$1,088
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 76426
acs median gross
2
$1,258
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 76426
acs median gross
3
$1,615
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 76426
acs median gross
$1,349
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 76426
acs recent mover gross
$1,397
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 76426
payment standard 110
0
$968
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76426
payment standard 90
0
$792
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76426
safmr
0
$880
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76426
payment standard 110
1
$1,001
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76426
payment standard 90
1
$819
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76426
safmr
1
$910
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76426
payment standard 110
2
$1,243
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76426
payment standard 90
2
$1,017
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76426
safmr
2
$1,130
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76426
payment standard 110
3
$1,727
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76426
payment standard 90
3
$1,413
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76426
safmr
3
$1,570
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76426
payment standard 110
4
$2,079
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76426
payment standard 90
4
$1,701
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76426
safmr
4
$1,890
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.