Reads as: riskier than 69.5% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
25
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+35.0 vs natl
HOUSE JANELLE
5 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+27.5 vs natl
STEVEN BOULWARE FAMILY INVESTMENTS LLC
14 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+25.8 vs natl
BAUDER WILLIAM
37 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+23.7 vs natl
BAUDER MADISON
22 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+23.1 vs natl
BAUDER PARKER
22 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+23.1 vs natl
BAUDER KELLY
22 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+22.4 vs natl
SANDERSON CLARK
58 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+21.5 vs natl
BOULWARE SANDRA
18 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+21.5 vs natl
FANNIN COUNTY HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
54 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+21.2 vs natl
BOULWARE ST JAMES LLC
20 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+21.0 vs natl
BOULWARE THOMAS
24 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+21.0 vs natl
WALKER KATIE
24 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+20.7 vs natl
BAUDER FAMILY INVESTMENTS LLC
20 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
10 chains
BAUDER WILLIAM
35 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
9 chains
BOULWARE STEVEN
40 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
WALKER KATIE
23 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
BOULWARE THOMAS
23 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
BAUDER PARKER
21 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
BAUDER KELLY
21 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
BAUDER MADISON
21 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
BOULWARE DOUGLAS
38 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
BAUDER FAMILY INVESTMENTS LLC
19 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
STEVEN BOULWARE FAMILY INVESTMENTS LLC
13 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
HOUSE JANELLE
5 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
BOULWARE SANDRA
17 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
TX median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.20
2.67
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.40
0.24
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.08
2.56
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.25
2.72
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
72.0
2.20
0.40
0.43
1.38
2.08
4.2%
2025Q3
92
72.3
2.36
0.31
0.51
1.54
2.18
1.5%
2025Q2
91
71.0
2.36
0.28
0.60
1.48
2.20
7.6%
2025Q1
90
68.5
2.14
0.29
0.62
1.23
1.93
7.0%
2024Q4
92
68.7
2.32
0.31
0.62
1.39
2.20
7.3%
2024Q3
92
71.2
1.98
0.27
0.57
1.14
1.88
11.0%
2024Q2
91
70.2
2.11
0.28
0.66
1.17
1.91
1.5%
2024Q1
91
71.1
2.30
0.30
0.63
1.38
2.08
0.6%
2023Q4
92
71.4
2.49
0.24
0.68
1.57
2.24
0.4%
2023Q3
92
72.5
2.96
0.24
0.58
2.14
2.59
6.6%
2023Q2
91
75.1
2.59
0.20
0.61
1.78
2.35
11.0%
2023Q1
90
73.5
2.73
0.24
0.65
1.84
2.49
11.9%
2022Q4
92
71.6
2.34
0.25
0.56
1.53
2.04
0.0%
2022Q3
92
68.8
2.42
0.17
0.72
1.53
2.03
0.0%
2022Q2
91
68.8
2.49
0.17
0.76
1.56
1.96
0.0%
2022Q1
90
61.8
3.14
0.22
0.89
2.03
2.81
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2025-05-12
2025-04-16
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2025-05-12
2025-04-16
Health
F0727
Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis.
E
2025-05-12
2025-04-16
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2025-05-12
2025-04-16
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2025-05-12
2025-04-16
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
D
2025-05-12
2025-04-16
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-05-12
2024-03-20
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2024-04-10
2024-03-07
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
E
2024-04-15
2024-03-07
Health
F0679
Provide activities to meet all resident's needs.
D
2024-04-15
2024-03-07
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2024-04-15
2023-11-22
Health · complaint
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2023-12-12
2023-01-05
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2023-02-06
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
27
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
FANNIN COUNTY HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2025-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
BAUDER FAMILY INVESTMENTS, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
BAUDER, KELLY
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-09-10
current
pecos_ownership
BAUDER, MADISON
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-09-10
current
pecos_ownership
BAUDER, PARKER
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-09-10
current
pecos_ownership
BAUDER, WILLIAM
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-09-10
current
pecos_ownership
BOULWARE ST JAMES LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
BOULWARE, DOUGLAS
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-09-10
current
pecos_ownership
BOULWARE, SANDRA
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-09-10
current
pecos_ownership
BOULWARE, STEVEN
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-09-10
current
pecos_ownership
BOULWARE, THOMAS
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-09-10
current
pecos_ownership
FANNIN COUNTY HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
—
—
2025-09-01
current
tx_hhsc_directory
HOUSE, JANELLE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
JOHNSON 5.0 LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
JOHNSON, JEFFREY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
JOHNSON, MARY
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-09-10
current
pecos_ownership
JOHNSON5 LLC
—
—
2025-09-01
current
tx_hhsc_directory
PMG REALCO-MABANK, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
SANDERSON, CLARK
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
STEVEN BOULWARE FAMILY INVESTMENTS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
WALKER, KATIE
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-09-10
current
pecos_ownership
KUNKA INVESTMENTS LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
50%
2020-09-01
ended 2021-08-31
hcris_a_8_1
ROCKDALE SENIOR CARE REALTY LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
50%
2021-09-01
ended 2021-12-15
hcris_a_8_1
CLARK SANDERSON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JANELLE HOUSE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JEFFREY JOHNSON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROCKDALE SENIOR CARE REALTY LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2020-09-01
ended 2021-08-31
hcris_a_8_1
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
2
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2021-12-15
$239,257
$239,257
—
—
—
2
propco
2021-08-31
$777,446
$777,446
—
—
—
4
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
31
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 48331
acs median gross
0
$932
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48331
fmr
0
$785
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48331
acs median gross
1
$619
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48331
fmr
1
$790
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48331
acs median gross
2
$940
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48331
fmr
2
$1,037
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48331
acs median gross
3
$1,202
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48331
fmr
3
$1,302
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48331
acs median gross
4
$3,101
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48331
fmr
4
$1,626
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48331
acs median gross
$984
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 76567
acs median gross
1
$734
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 76567
acs median gross
2
$948
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 76567
acs median gross
3
$1,657
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 76567
acs median gross
$993
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 76567
acs recent mover gross
$3,119
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 76567
payment standard 110
0
$1,034
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76567
payment standard 90
0
$846
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76567
safmr
0
$940
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76567
payment standard 110
1
$1,089
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76567
payment standard 90
1
$891
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76567
safmr
1
$990
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76567
payment standard 110
2
$1,199
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76567
payment standard 90
2
$981
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76567
safmr
2
$1,090
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76567
payment standard 110
3
$1,683
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76567
payment standard 90
3
$1,377
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76567
safmr
3
$1,530
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76567
payment standard 110
4
$1,848
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76567
payment standard 90
4
$1,512
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76567
safmr
4
$1,680
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.