Reads as: riskier than 23.0% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
7
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+23.1 vs natl
O NEAL GLENDA
5 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+23.1 vs natl
GRAY ARNOLD
5 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+23.1 vs natl
HEWITT HERBERT
5 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+22.3 vs natl
PRICE LARRY
26 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
LOCKHART CHRISTOPHER
10 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
42% fined
PRICE LARRY
26 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
42% fined
SOUTH LIMESTONE HOSPITAL DISTRICT
26 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
TX median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.23
2.67
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.08
0.24
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.61
2.56
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.47
2.72
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
32.9
3.23
0.08
1.01
2.14
2.61
10.3%
2025Q3
92
32.4
3.40
0.09
1.11
2.19
2.71
15.8%
2025Q2
91
36.0
3.10
0.10
0.87
2.13
2.66
20.5%
2025Q1
90
37.6
2.99
0.07
0.88
2.04
2.59
20.1%
2024Q4
92
36.1
3.32
0.06
0.96
2.29
3.22
17.8%
2024Q3
92
39.4
2.77
0.08
0.82
1.88
2.75
15.7%
2024Q2
91
36.2
2.67
0.18
0.59
1.90
2.74
17.0%
2024Q1
91
32.1
3.45
0.18
0.78
2.49
3.04
4.5%
2023Q4
92
30.1
3.46
0.08
1.01
2.37
3.12
1.3%
2023Q3
92
30.3
3.23
0.08
1.01
2.13
2.98
1.5%
2023Q2
91
30.8
3.24
0.28
0.84
2.12
2.95
2.1%
2023Q1
90
32.5
3.09
0.14
1.03
1.91
3.33
14.9%
2022Q4
92
29.0
3.28
0.09
1.13
2.06
3.40
15.6%
2022Q3
92
30.7
3.94
0.19
1.00
2.75
3.77
16.6%
2022Q2
91
33.4
4.02
0.18
1.01
2.83
4.16
24.3%
2022Q1
90
37.4
3.59
0.11
0.98
2.50
3.34
25.7%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
10
C × 1D × 4E × 5
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-01-14
Health
F0577
Allow residents to easily view the nursing home's survey results and communicate with advocate agencies.
C
2026-01-16
2026-01-14
Health
F0644
Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed.
D
2026-01-19
2026-01-14
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
E
2026-02-19
2026-01-14
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
E
2026-01-16
2026-01-14
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2026-01-16
2024-10-23
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
E
2024-11-16
2024-10-23
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
E
2024-11-16
2024-10-23
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2024-11-16
2023-12-23
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2024-01-24
2023-09-13
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2023-09-14
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
27
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
SOUTH LIMESTONE HOSPITAL DISTRICT
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2022-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
GRAY, ARNOLD
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-06-16
current
pecos_ownership
HEWITT, HERBERT
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2009-05-26
current
pecos_ownership
HOBBS, TYRELL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-10-25
current
pecos_ownership
LOCKHART, CHRISTINA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-02-27
current
pecos_ownership
NEAL, JOSEPH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
NEAL, JOSEPH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
O'NEAL, GLENDA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2012-07-24
current
pecos_ownership
PRICE, LARRY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2022-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
SOUTH LIMESTONE HOSPITAL DISTRICT
—
—
2025-05-01
current
tx_hhsc_directory
VAN SENIOR CARE LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
VAN SENIOR CARE, LLC
—
—
2025-05-01
current
tx_hhsc_directory
WILLS, ALAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
WILSON, KENT
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-01-25
current
pecos_ownership
BUMPASS REAL ESTATE HOLDINGS LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
50%
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
BUMPASS REAL ESTATE HOLDINGS LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
50%
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
VAN SNF REALTY LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
50%
2022-01-01
ended 2022-04-30
hcris_a_8_1
ARNOLD GRAY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2018-06-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHRISTINA LOCKHART
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2024-02-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GLENDA O'NEAL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2012-07-24
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
HERBERT HEWITT
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2009-05-26
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KENT WILSON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2022-01-25
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LARRY PRICE
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2022-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TYRELL HOBBS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2022-10-25
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ALAN WILLS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2017-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOSEPH NEAL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOSEPH NEAL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
3
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2022-04-30
$28,947
$28,947
—
—
—
2
propco
2021-12-31
$86,905
$86,905
—
—
—
2
propco
2020-12-31
$29,494
$29,494
—
—
—
2
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
31
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 48467
acs median gross
0
$540
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48467
fmr
0
$839
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48467
acs median gross
1
$569
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48467
fmr
1
$844
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48467
acs median gross
2
$1,041
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48467
fmr
2
$1,108
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48467
acs median gross
3
$1,307
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48467
fmr
3
$1,458
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48467
acs median gross
4
$1,371
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48467
fmr
4
$1,467
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48467
acs median gross
$1,066
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48467
acs recent mover gross
$1,099
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 75790
acs median gross
1
$950
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 75790
acs median gross
2
$1,150
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 75790
acs median gross
3
$1,351
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 75790
acs median gross
$1,187
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 75790
payment standard 110
0
$990
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75790
payment standard 90
0
$810
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75790
safmr
0
$900
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75790
payment standard 110
1
$1,078
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75790
payment standard 90
1
$882
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75790
safmr
1
$980
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75790
payment standard 110
2
$1,320
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75790
payment standard 90
2
$1,080
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75790
safmr
2
$1,200
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75790
payment standard 110
3
$1,760
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75790
payment standard 90
3
$1,440
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75790
safmr
3
$1,600
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75790
payment standard 110
4
$1,991
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75790
payment standard 90
4
$1,629
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75790
safmr
4
$1,810
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.