Reads as: riskier than 90.5% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
4
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+20.4 vs natl
BERGERON BOBBY
15 facilities
connection
Buyer assembling a chain (5+ takeovers/24mo)
6 facilities
WINNIE-STOWELL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
6 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
46% fined
MURRELL EDWARD
76 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
BERGERON BOBBY
15 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
TX median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.21
2.67
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.29
0.24
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.17
2.56
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.23
2.72
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
43.2
3.21
0.29
1.03
1.89
3.17
0.7%
2025Q3
92
41.2
3.35
0.18
1.13
2.04
3.11
1.7%
2025Q2
91
43.0
3.25
0.17
1.03
2.04
3.11
3.1%
2025Q1
90
44.7
3.27
0.18
1.04
2.05
3.14
3.2%
2024Q4
92
42.0
3.49
0.22
1.06
2.21
3.32
0.0%
2024Q3
92
45.1
3.24
0.22
0.94
2.08
3.20
0.0%
2024Q2
91
48.0
3.23
0.12
0.93
2.18
3.17
0.0%
2024Q1
91
49.2
2.94
0.14
0.78
2.02
2.78
0.2%
2023Q4
92
54.4
3.02
0.17
0.70
2.15
2.83
1.1%
2023Q3
92
52.8
3.04
0.19
0.67
2.18
2.85
0.3%
2023Q2
91
48.7
3.18
0.18
0.76
2.23
2.99
1.7%
2023Q1
90
50.0
3.17
0.17
0.77
2.22
2.90
1.9%
2022Q4
92
46.6
3.33
0.20
0.77
2.35
3.10
12.2%
2022Q3
92
44.0
3.55
0.19
0.82
2.53
3.01
31.5%
2022Q2
91
42.6
3.67
0.19
0.87
2.61
2.88
32.6%
2022Q1
90
53.9
4.07
0.25
0.82
3.00
3.27
21.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2026-01-31
2025-09-17
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2025-10-06
2025-09-17
Health
F0605
Prevent the use of unnecessary psychotropic medications or use medications that may restrain a resident's ability to function.
D
2025-10-06
2025-09-17
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2025-10-06
2025-09-17
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2025-10-06
2025-09-17
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2025-10-06
2025-09-17
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-10-06
2025-07-25
Health · complaint
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2025-08-11
2025-07-25
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
J
2025-07-26
2024-08-28
Health
F0693
Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube.
D
2024-10-13
2024-08-28
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2024-10-13
2024-08-28
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2024-10-13
2024-08-28
Health
F0941
Develop, implement, and/or maintain an effective training program that includes effective communications for direct care staff members.
E
2024-10-13
2024-08-28
Health
F0942
Ensure that staff members are educated on resident rights and facility responsibilities to properly care for its residents.
D
2024-10-13
2024-08-28
Health
F0943
Give their staff education on dementia care, and what abuse, neglect, and exploitation are; and how to report abuse, neglect, and exploitation.
E
2024-10-13
2024-08-28
Health
F0944
Conduct mandatory training, for all staff, on the facility’s Quality Assurance and Performance Improvement Program.
E
2024-10-13
2024-08-28
Health
F0946
Provide training in compliance and ethics.
E
2024-10-13
2024-08-28
Health
F0947
Ensure nurse aides have the skills they need to care for residents, and give nurse aides education in dementia care and abuse prevention.
E
2024-10-13
2024-08-28
Health
F0949
Provide behavior health training consistent with the requirements and as determined by a facility assessment.
E
2024-10-13
2024-08-01
Health · complaint
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2024-08-02
2024-08-01
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
G
2024-08-02
2024-08-01
Health · complaint
F0602
Protect each resident from the wrongful use of the resident's belongings or money.
D
2024-08-02
2024-08-01
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2024-08-02
2023-11-14
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
J
2023-11-08
2023-11-14
Health · complaint
F0607
Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft.
J
2023-11-08
2023-11-14
Health · complaint
F0622
Not transfer or discharge a resident without an adequate reason; and must provide documentation and convey specific information when a resident is transferred or discharged.
D
2023-11-08
2023-11-14
Health · complaint
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2023-11-15
2023-06-28
Health
F0727
Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis.
E
2023-06-29
2023-06-28
Health
F0868
Have the Quality Assessment and Assurance group have the required members and meet at least quarterly
E
2023-06-29
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
16
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
BERGERON, BOBBY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
CORRIGAN LTC PARTNERS INC
—
—
2026-01-01
current
tx_hhsc_directory
CORRIGAN LTC PARTNERS, INC.
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
EAST TEXAS III ASSOCIATES, LLC
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
JEFFERSON, LORINE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
MURRELL, EDWARD
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
NICHOLSON, LOUIS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
SPLENSER, PABLO
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
WINNIE STOWELL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
—
—
2026-08-03
current
tx_hhsc_directory
WINNIE-STOWELL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
EDWARD MURRELL
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BOBBY BERGERON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LORINE JEFFERSON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LOUIS NICHOLSON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PABLO SPLENSER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WINNIESTOWELL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
—
—
2026-01-01
ended 2026-08-03
tx_hhsc_directory
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
32
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 48373
acs median gross
0
$663
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48373
fmr
0
$849
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48373
acs median gross
1
$823
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48373
fmr
1
$855
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48373
acs median gross
2
$1,018
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48373
fmr
2
$1,122
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48373
acs median gross
3
$1,103
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48373
fmr
3
$1,345
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48373
acs median gross
4
$1,761
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48373
fmr
4
$1,651
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48373
acs median gross
$987
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48373
acs recent mover gross
$951
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 75939
acs median gross
1
$385
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 75939
acs median gross
2
$421
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 75939
acs median gross
3
$960
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 75939
acs median gross
4
$941
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 75939
acs median gross
$665
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 75939
payment standard 110
0
$814
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75939
payment standard 90
0
$666
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75939
safmr
0
$740
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75939
payment standard 110
1
$814
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75939
payment standard 90
1
$666
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75939
safmr
1
$740
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75939
payment standard 110
2
$1,067
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75939
payment standard 90
2
$873
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75939
safmr
2
$970
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75939
payment standard 110
3
$1,287
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75939
payment standard 90
3
$1,053
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75939
safmr
3
$1,170
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75939
payment standard 110
4
$1,573
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75939
payment standard 90
4
$1,287
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 75939
safmr
4
$1,430
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.