Reads as: riskier than 21.6% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
4
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
60% fined
ELLINGSON ERIK
5 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
50% fined
AUGUSTANA CARE
6 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
50% fined
PARKS CHARLES
6 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
RAMSDALE SCOTT
5 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
MN median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.91
3.49
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
1.06
0.65
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.94
3.32
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.90
3.59
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
90.3
3.91
1.06
0.59
2.25
3.94
0.0%
2025Q3
92
90.1
3.89
0.94
0.69
2.26
3.90
0.0%
2025Q2
91
87.7
4.17
0.90
0.99
2.29
4.02
0.0%
2025Q1
90
89.7
4.04
0.80
0.96
2.28
4.00
0.0%
2024Q4
92
88.1
4.18
0.85
1.06
2.27
4.14
0.0%
2024Q3
92
91.6
4.18
0.83
1.07
2.28
4.18
0.0%
2024Q2
91
90.5
4.23
0.85
1.05
2.33
4.18
0.0%
2024Q1
91
89.7
4.09
0.91
0.85
2.33
4.16
0.0%
2023Q4
92
89.9
4.02
0.81
0.91
2.30
3.98
0.0%
2023Q3
92
89.8
3.98
0.78
0.91
2.29
3.95
0.0%
2023Q2
91
92.2
3.85
0.69
0.92
2.24
3.86
0.0%
2023Q1
90
91.2
3.87
0.67
0.95
2.25
3.90
0.0%
2022Q4
92
91.7
3.89
0.79
0.86
2.24
3.89
0.2%
2022Q3
92
91.8
3.91
0.77
0.89
2.25
3.93
0.9%
2022Q2
91
92.9
3.88
0.84
0.81
2.24
3.83
1.4%
2022Q1
90
95.3
3.76
0.86
0.72
2.18
3.79
0.5%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
G
—
2025-12-04
Health
F0577
Allow residents to easily view the nursing home's survey results and communicate with advocate agencies.
C
2025-12-30
2025-12-04
Health
F0921
Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public.
D
2025-12-30
2025-04-24
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2025-06-17
2025-04-24
Health · complaint
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2025-06-17
2025-04-24
Health · complaint
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
D
2025-06-17
2025-04-24
Health · complaint
F0770
Provide timely, quality laboratory services/tests to meet the needs of residents.
D
2025-06-17
2025-04-24
Health · complaint
F0773
Provide or obtain laboratory tests/services when ordered and promptly tell the ordering practitioner of the results.
D
2025-06-17
2025-04-24
Health · complaint
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2025-06-17
2025-04-24
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
L
2025-04-19
2025-04-02
Health · complaint
F0554
Allow residents to self-administer drugs if determined clinically appropriate.
E
2025-04-17
2024-11-21
Health
F0700
Try different approaches before using a bed rail. If a bed rail is needed, the facility must (1) assess a resident for safety risk; (2) review these risks and benefits with the resident/representative; (3) get informed consent; and (4) Correctly install and maintain the bed rail.
D
2025-01-13
2024-11-21
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-01-13
2024-06-26
Health · complaint
F0578
Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.
E
2024-07-29
2024-06-26
Health · complaint
F0678
Provide basic life support, including CPR, prior to the arrival of emergency medical personnel , subject to physician orders and the resident’s advance directives.
E
2024-07-29
2024-04-18
Health · complaint
F0561
Honor the resident's right to and the facility must promote and facilitate resident self-determination through support of resident choice.
D
2024-05-20
2024-04-18
Health · complaint
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2024-05-20
2024-04-18
Health · complaint
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2024-05-20
2023-10-05
Health
F0582
Give residents notice of Medicaid/Medicare coverage and potential liability for services not covered.
D
2023-11-15
2023-10-05
Health
F0645
PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities
D
2023-11-15
2023-10-05
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2023-11-15
2023-10-05
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2023-11-15
2023-10-05
Health · complaint
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2023-11-15
2023-10-05
Health
F0700
Try different approaches before using a bed rail. If a bed rail is needed, the facility must (1) assess a resident for safety risk; (2) review these risks and benefits with the resident/representative; (3) get informed consent; and (4) Correctly install and maintain the bed rail.
D
2023-11-15
2023-10-05
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
F
2023-11-15
2023-09-19
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2023-10-27
2023-06-21
Health · complaint
F0558
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
D
2023-07-21
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
48
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
AUGUSTANA CARE
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2018-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
CASSIA
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2020-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
BRADY, JAIME
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
BROWN, ANGELA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
CASSIA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
CASSIA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-12-05
current
pecos_ownership
DAVENPORT, JESSICA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-02-09
current
pecos_ownership
ELLINGSON, ERIK
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
HEYRMAN, TARA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-10-12
current
pecos_ownership
KERN, MATTHEW
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2018-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
KLEIN, ANDREW
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-05-03
current
pecos_ownership
KUKA, KELLY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
LIBBON, PAUL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
MASON, KRISSA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2025-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
MITTAL, VIKAS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
MOORE, LISA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
MORRIS, CYNTHIA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
NYE, GERALD
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
PAHL, SAMUEL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-01-15
current
pecos_ownership
PAHL, SAMUEL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2004-06-17
current
pecos_ownership
PARKS, CHARLES
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
RAMSDALE, SCOTT
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
SAIBOU, LAURA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
STADTHERR, SEELOCHANI
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
VERLAUTZ, MICHELENE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
YOUNGQUIST, KATHRYN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2018-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
ANGELA BROWN
CORPORATE OFFICER
8%
2018-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHARLES PARKS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
8%
2018-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CYNTHIA MORRIS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
8%
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ERIK ELLINGSON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
8%
2018-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GERALD NYE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
8%
2018-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JAIME BRADY
CORPORATE OFFICER
8%
2025-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KATHRYN YOUNGQUIST
CORPORATE OFFICER
8%
2018-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KRISSA MASON
CORPORATE OFFICER
8%
2025-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MATTHEW KERN
CORPORATE OFFICER
8%
2018-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHELENE VERLAUTZ
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
8%
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PAUL LIBBON
CORPORATE OFFICER
8%
2025-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SCOTT RAMSDALE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
8%
2018-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANDREW KLEIN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-05-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JESSICA DAVENPORT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-02-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KELLY KUKA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LAURA SAIBOU
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LISA MOORE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SAMUEL PAHL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-01-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SAMUEL PAHL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2004-06-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SEELOCHANI STADTHERR
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2018-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TARA HEYRMAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-10-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
VIKAS MITTAL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
6
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$2,838,573
—
—
$1,089,506
$81,495
7
—
2023-12-31
$2,528,853
—
—
$1,008,523
$308,977
10
—
2022-12-31
$2,400,569
—
—
$1,009,972
$59,434
8
—
2021-12-31
$1,821,469
—
—
$927,673
$52,937
7
—
2020-12-31
$1,506,877
—
—
$715,001
$48,613
7
—
2019-12-31
$418,899
—
—
$248,839
$24,012
6
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 27053
acs median gross
0
$1,141
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27053
fmr
0
$1,242
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 27053
acs median gross
1
$1,293
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27053
fmr
1
$1,405
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 27053
acs median gross
2
$1,677
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27053
fmr
2
$1,709
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 27053
acs median gross
3
$1,963
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27053
fmr
3
$2,262
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 27053
acs median gross
4
$2,216
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27053
fmr
4
$2,531
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 27053
acs median gross
5
$1,999
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27053
acs median gross
$1,487
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27053
acs recent mover gross
$1,628
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 55343
acs median gross
0
$1,208
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 55343
acs median gross
1
$1,357
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 55343
acs median gross
2
$1,701
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 55343
acs median gross
3
$2,073
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 55343
acs median gross
4
$2,770
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 55343
acs median gross
$1,568
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 55343
acs recent mover gross
$1,630
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 55343
payment standard 110
0
$1,441
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55343
payment standard 90
0
$1,179
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55343
safmr
0
$1,310
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55343
payment standard 110
1
$1,628
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55343
payment standard 90
1
$1,332
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55343
safmr
1
$1,480
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55343
payment standard 110
2
$1,980
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55343
payment standard 90
2
$1,620
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55343
safmr
2
$1,800
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55343
payment standard 110
3
$2,618
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55343
payment standard 90
3
$2,142
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55343
safmr
3
$2,380
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55343
payment standard 110
4
$2,937
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55343
payment standard 90
4
$2,403
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55343
safmr
4
$2,670
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.