Reads as: riskier than 81.5% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
3
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+25.1 vs natl
HMG HEALTHCARE LLC
8 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
50% fined
HMG HEALTHCARE LLC
8 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
46% fined
MURRELL EDWARD
76 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
TX median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.13
2.67
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.55
0.24
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.90
2.56
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.22
2.72
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
87.8
3.13
0.55
0.81
1.76
2.90
0.0%
2025Q3
92
91.8
3.25
0.58
0.85
1.82
2.93
0.0%
2025Q2
91
88.8
3.19
0.54
0.90
1.75
2.96
0.0%
2025Q1
90
102.4
3.23
0.44
0.94
1.85
2.83
0.0%
2024Q4
92
100.3
3.19
0.45
0.93
1.82
2.85
0.1%
2024Q3
92
95.7
3.03
0.41
0.92
1.71
2.78
0.2%
2024Q2
91
90.5
3.16
0.31
1.09
1.75
2.89
0.0%
2024Q1
91
95.4
3.12
0.26
1.11
1.75
2.74
0.0%
2023Q4
92
98.1
3.33
0.29
1.21
1.83
2.88
0.0%
2023Q3
92
96.0
3.44
0.29
1.25
1.90
3.02
0.0%
2023Q2
91
99.8
3.39
0.25
1.21
1.93
2.80
0.0%
2023Q1
90
97.3
3.47
0.34
1.17
1.96
2.96
0.0%
2022Q4
92
95.6
3.59
0.32
1.24
2.03
3.07
0.0%
2022Q3
92
97.8
3.27
0.36
1.14
1.77
2.74
0.0%
2022Q2
91
89.2
3.58
0.34
1.33
1.91
3.08
0.0%
2022Q1
90
90.5
3.57
0.40
1.18
1.98
3.13
2.2%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
D
2026-03-23
2026-03-19
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2026-03-23
2025-11-19
Health · complaint
F0806
Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food that accommodates resident allergies, intolerances, and preferences, as well as appealing options.
D
2025-11-20
2025-07-29
Health · complaint
F0806
Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food that accommodates resident allergies, intolerances, and preferences, as well as appealing options.
D
2025-07-30
2025-01-13
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2025-01-14
2025-01-13
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2025-01-14
2025-01-13
Health
F0694
Provide for the safe, appropriate administration of IV fluids for a resident when needed.
D
2025-01-14
2025-01-13
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
E
2025-01-14
2025-01-13
Health
F0698
Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services.
E
2025-01-14
2025-01-13
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
E
2025-01-14
2025-01-13
Health
F0757
Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs.
E
2025-01-14
2025-01-13
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2025-01-14
2024-11-05
Health · complaint
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
E
2024-11-06
2024-09-19
Health · complaint
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
K
2024-09-20
2023-12-20
Health
F0561
Honor the resident's right to and the facility must promote and facilitate resident self-determination through support of resident choice.
D
2023-12-21
2023-12-20
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2023-12-21
2023-12-20
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
E
2023-12-21
2023-12-20
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
E
2023-12-21
2023-12-20
Health
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
E
2023-12-21
2023-12-20
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2023-12-21
2023-12-20
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2023-12-21
2023-12-20
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2023-12-21
2023-08-09
Health · complaint
F0585
Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances.
D
2023-08-10
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
38
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
BALSAMO, KRYSTAL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
CULP, ROLAND
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
DASPIT, LAURENCE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
DOHN, WILLIAM
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
GADBERRY, DYLAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-12-05
current
pecos_ownership
HEB SNF OE, LP
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
HMG HEALTHCARE LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
HMG PARTNERS I, LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
HMG SNF I LLC
—
—
2023-09-01
current
tx_hhsc_directory
HMG SNF I, LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
JAMES, JAMES
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-02-04
current
pecos_ownership
MURRELL, EDWARD
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
MURRELL, EDWARD
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
PICO, ANA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
PRINCE, DEREK
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
REINARZ, CHRISTIAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
ROLLO, JEFFERY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
ROLLO, JEFFERY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
STANBRIDGE, NORMA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
STRAMECKI, ANTHONY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
STRAMECKI, ANTHONY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
VRATIS, KACEY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
VRATIS, KACEY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
WAY, GEORGE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
WAY, GEORGE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
WINNIE STOWELL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
—
—
2023-09-01
current
tx_hhsc_directory
WINNIE-STOWELL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2023-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANA PICO
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
13%
2023-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DEREK PRINCE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
13%
2023-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LAURENCE DASPIT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
13%
2023-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROLAND CULP
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
13%
2023-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANTHONY STRAMECKI
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
8%
2023-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
EDWARD MURRELL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
8%
2023-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GEORGE WAY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
8%
2023-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JEFFERY ROLLO
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
8%
2023-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KACEY VRATIS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
8%
2023-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHERRIE NORRIS
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
8%
2023-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
HEB SNF OE GENPAR,LLC
OTHER
1%
2023-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 48439
acs median gross
0
$1,316
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48439
fmr
0
$1,427
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48439
acs median gross
1
$1,287
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48439
fmr
1
$1,473
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48439
acs median gross
2
$1,576
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48439
fmr
2
$1,723
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48439
acs median gross
3
$1,885
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48439
fmr
3
$2,273
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48439
acs median gross
4
$2,359
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48439
fmr
4
$2,815
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48439
acs median gross
5
$2,682
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48439
acs median gross
$1,547
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48439
acs recent mover gross
$1,700
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 76021
acs median gross
0
$1,243
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 76021
acs median gross
1
$1,368
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 76021
acs median gross
2
$1,718
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 76021
acs median gross
3
$2,135
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 76021
acs median gross
4
$2,837
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 76021
acs median gross
5
$2,646
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 76021
acs median gross
$1,502
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 76021
acs recent mover gross
$1,879
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 76021
payment standard 110
0
$1,661
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76021
payment standard 90
0
$1,359
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76021
safmr
0
$1,510
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76021
payment standard 110
1
$1,716
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76021
payment standard 90
1
$1,404
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76021
safmr
1
$1,560
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76021
payment standard 110
2
$2,002
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76021
payment standard 90
2
$1,638
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76021
safmr
2
$1,820
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76021
payment standard 110
3
$2,640
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76021
payment standard 90
3
$2,160
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76021
safmr
3
$2,400
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76021
payment standard 110
4
$3,267
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76021
payment standard 90
4
$2,673
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 76021
safmr
4
$2,970
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.